Guo Mingchi: Market is revising down this year's iPhone sales expectations, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) market value expected to surpass Apple (AAPL.US)

On March 6th, Tianfeng international analyst Guo Mingchi wrote that the market consensus for the shipment of the 2024 iPhone was previously estimated to be 220-225 million units, but it has now started to be revised downwards and is approaching the previous forecast of 200 million units. If Apple(AAPL.US) is unable to launch a generative AI service that exceeds market expectations this year, Nvidia's market value is very likely to surpass Apple's. According to Guo Mingchi's previous prediction on January 30th, Apple has lowered the estimated shipment of key upstream semiconductor components for the 2024 iPhone to around 200 million units (a 15% decline compared to the previous year). He believes that among the major global smartphone brands in 2024, Apple may experience the largest decline in shipments, especially in the Chinese market where shipment volumes continue to decrease. Recently, according to the latest statistics from Counterpoint, in the first 6 weeks of 2024, overall smartphone sales in China dropped by 7% year-on-year, with major manufacturers such as Apple, OPPO, and vivo experiencing double-digit declines. Specifically, due to intense market competition and unusually high sales in January last year, Apple's sales in China fell by 24% year-on-year, causing Apple's share in the Chinese smartphone market to drop to fourth place, behind vivo, Huawei, and Honor. On the other hand, Nvidia announced in its financial report last month that its revenue in the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year increased by 265% year-on-year to $22.1 billion, far exceeding market expectations of $20.4 billion; with a gross margin of 76%, setting a new historical high and also surpassing the market expectation of 75.2%; and its net profit increased by 769% year-on-year to $12.3 billion, also a historical high. Furthermore, Nvidia predicts that its revenue in the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year will be $24 billion (plus or minus 2%), an increase of 234% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of $21.8 billion; and its gross margin in the first quarter is expected to be 76.3% (plus or minus 0.5%), again exceeding market expectations of 75.1%. It is understood that Nvidia's explosive performance growth once again confirms Wall Street's optimistic attitude towards the potential of artificial intelligence reshaping the tech industry, which has also driven Nvidia's stock price to soar. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang assured investors that the company foresees sustained strong growth before 2025, which is crucial for maintaining the increase in Nvidia's stock price. As of the close of trading on Tuesday, Apple fell by 2.84% to $170.12, marking its largest two-day decline since September; while Nvidia rose by 0.86% to $859.64, with a market value reaching $2.15 trillion.