"Better than the 'Seven Giants'! US retail stocks may usher in a revival wave"

date
04/03/2024
avatar
GMT Eight
The US retail sector is beginning to show signs of recovery and may be entering a bull market. Although retail stocks themselves are not a key indicator of the overall health of the stock market, I believe this specific uptrend is worth paying attention to. Over the past year, retailers, like small-cap stocks, have shown little improvement. They simply do not believe in the idea of a "soft landing." However, retail stocks may now be on the verge of a breakthrough. Why is this happening? Perhaps the simplest answer is the right one. Investors are concerned about being over-invested in tech stocks, so they are turning to sectors that lag behind large-cap stocks. Alternatively, investors may be betting that the Fed will cut rates while maintaining low inflation. If the Fed accomplishes this, it will also alleviate concerns about slowing consumer spending. Perhaps this is just a random phenomenon. Regardless of the reasons for the rise in retail stocks, this uptrend is worth watching. When observing the price ratio of the S&P Retail ETF (XRT.US) to the S&P 500 Index (SPY.US), it does look quite interesting. An increasing price ratio means that the numerator, the S&P Retail ETF, is outperforming the S&P 500 Index. This means that, on average, retail stocks are rising more than the S&P 500 Index. This is the real focus, and it is bullish for the market. However, it is important to remember that the chart above only shows the performance of retail stocks relative to the S&P 500 Index. This could also mean that if the overall stock market collapses, the decline in retail stocks will not be as significant. This makes sense, as they are already trading at discounted prices. Currently, retail stocks have potential as a momentum trade. Investors should consider bullish actions because retailers have more room for growth compared to tech stocks that are overhyped.

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