Inflation is slowing down slower than expected. Goldman Sachs postpones the European Central Bank's first interest rate cut to June.
04/03/2024
GMT Eight
After the latest data showed inflation in the Eurozone slightly higher than expected, Goldman Sachs released its latest forecast, predicting that the European Central Bank will start cutting interest rates from June.
It is understood that this Wall Street brokerage firm had previously estimated that the European Central Bank would start reducing borrowing costs in April.
In a research report last Friday, Goldman Sachs stated that it currently expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points five times this year, lower than the previous expectation of six times. In addition, the bank predicts that there will be two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points next year, instead of just one as previously expected.
Data released by Eurostat last Friday showed that the inflation rate in the Eurozone 20 countries fell from 2.8% in January to 2.6% in February, with market expectations at 2.5%.
The key core data, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, fell from 3.3% to 3.1%, also falling short of the expected 2.9%, and still above the European Central Bank's target of 2%.
Goldman Sachs economists said in a report, "Core inflation unexpectedly increased for two consecutive months in January and February, reducing the possibility of an early rate cut."
According to data from LSEG, traders are currently betting with a 77.6% probability on the European Central Bank starting to cut interest rates in June.