All eyes are on it! Will the performance of Nvidia (NVDA.US) that Wall Street is actively bullish on become the key to success or failure of US stocks?

Nvidia (NVDA.US) will announce its fourth quarter financial results for the 2024 fiscal year on February 22, Beijing time, with several Wall Street banks predicting that the chip giant's performance will exceed expectations and show growth. Analysts at Wedbush Securities, led by Dan Ives, wrote in a report to clients, "Wall Street generally expects Nvidia's performance to once again significantly exceed expectations and show growth, all due to the speed of spending on data center artificial intelligence-driven, as Nvidia's GPU is the only choice for running generative artificial intelligence applications." Wedbush added that Nvidia's performance is seen as "crucial" for the tech industry and the broader market, highlighting the trajectory of GPU orders and enterprise demand as crucial. Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann also stated that he expects Nvidia's performance to exceed expectations and show growth, citing strong momentum in its products, including Hooper, Grace Hopper, networking, and software. Mosesmann noted that Nvidia's stock price has risen by over 50% so far this year, far exceeding the 10% increase in the entire semiconductor market, possibly because Wall Street is realizing that Nvidia's artificial intelligence capabilities are "an increasingly difficult-to-understand long-term driver" compared to previous cycles such as gaming or cryptocurrency. Ahead of Nvidia's quarterly earnings release and next month's GTC event, Mosesmann reiterated his "buy" rating on Nvidia and a target price of $1100. Currently, analysts generally expect Nvidia's Q4 revenue to reach $20.54 billion, with earnings per share of $4.63. Nvidia's performance could lead the way for the US stock market At the time of the performance announcement, driven by the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia is currently approaching a market value of nearly $1.8 trillion, making it the third-largest US company behind only Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Apple (AAPL.US), replacing Tesla (TSLA.US) as the most traded stock in the US stock market. This further demonstrates investors' focus on AI-related investments. Data shows that in the past 30 trading days, Nvidia's stock has had an average daily trading volume of around $30 billion, surpassing Tesla, which had an average daily trading volume of $22 billion during the same period. Since 2020, Tesla has been the most traded stock in the US stock market, with daily trading volumes often exceeding $35 billion. In comparison, Apple's recent daily trading volume is around $10 billion. This makes Nvidia's performance one of the most anticipated events on Wall Street. If the chip maker's revenue growth fails to meet investors' high expectations and disrupts the bullish sentiment driven by AI, Nvidia's significant market share in daily stock trading could make investors more vulnerable. Some strategists believe that without a surge in earnings, Nvidia's rally after soaring 40% this year could reverse. Analysts at Bank of America said that due to the intertwining of "fear, greed, and blind pursuit of all things AI by investors," Nvidia's stock has been skyrocketing parabolically. Bulls remain optimistic about Nvidia, expecting Q4 revenue to reach $21.7 billion, 9% higher than market expectations. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya pointed out that because market expectations are high, it raises the difficulty for Nvidia to surpass market expectations, which could lead to an 11% fluctuation in the company's stock price after the earnings report is released. Independent stock market analyst Michael Kramer stated that Nvidia's earnings report could be crucial for the market's success. He said, "I think the market has placed a huge bet on Nvidia, and if Nvidia's stock price doesn't surge significantly, there won't be any other factors to drive the US stock market higher."