Swiss EVY Feng Zhenjun: Overall fundamentals are improving, and Hong Kong stocks' attractiveness is gradually returning.
20/11/2023
GMT Eight
Recently, Vincent Zhen, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist of Swiss Private Bank Julius Baer, stated that the direction of the Chinese economy is the most crucial factor for the overall market. The central government has begun to address the risks of local debt platforms, and the overall fundamentals are improving. The technology cycle is expected to bottom out in the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, driving improvement in Chinese exports and benefiting corporate profits. The Hang Seng Index has repeatedly tested its lowest level this year, and if there are no major negative developments, along with the improvement in the three constraining factors, the attractiveness of the stock market is slowly returning.
In terms of interest rates, Zhen stated that US data shows the economy will slow down and interest rates are expected to peak. He doesn't expect the Renminbi exchange rate to weaken significantly, and with US stocks not being cheap, investors may reconsider emerging markets as US interest rates and the US dollar peak.
Zhen believes that most foreign investors have relatively low positions in the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets. The recent strength of the Renminbi against the US dollar, reaching the 7.21 level, may be a sign that foreign investors are paying attention to Chinese stocks again. He further suggests continuing to monitor the Renminbi's trend and believes it is currently a good time to gradually accumulate positions.