EB SECURITIES: Market-based New Energy Power Generation Sets Sail; Industry Incremental Structure Will Shift to Overseas Wind Power and Energy Storage

EB SECURITIES: Market-based New Energy Power Generation Sets Sail; Industry Incremental Structure Will Shift to Overseas Wind Power and Energy Storage EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that the full market entry of new energy is reshaping power station revenue models. Solar PV has entered a phase of parallel demand adjustment and supply clearing; wind power is achieving relative returns through price and demand resilience; energy storage has become an important increment to global new energy demand; and hydrogen-ammonia-methanol is beginning to move from demonstration to commercial validation. Global new energy demand will still grow over the next three years, but the incremental structure will shift from high-base domestic expansion to overseas wind power and energy storage. Domestic PV installations are expected to gradually stabilize, domestic onshore wind will remain at a high level, and domestic offshore wind is expected to accelerate under the push of deep-sea projects; in overseas markets, overseas large-scale storage, overseas offshore wind, and commercial & industrial storage are the faster-growing directions. The main views of EB SECURITIES are as follows: The main theme of the 2026 new energy power generation industry has shifted from total installation expansion to the repricing of asset returns and industry profitability The full market entry of new energy is reshaping power station revenue models. Solar PV has entered a phase of parallel demand adjustment and supply clearing; wind power is achieving relative returns through price and demand resilience; energy storage has become an important increment to global new energy demand; and hydrogen-ammonia-methanol is beginning to move from demonstration to commercial validation. The current market has already priced in total volume pressure relatively fully, and institutional holdings are also at low levels. Future excess returns are more likely to come from improvements in mechanism electricity prices, supply clearing, profit realization, and the release of new demand, rather than a full reversal of total industry volume. New energy power stations are shifting from quasi-fixed-income assets to market-traded assets Project returns no longer depend on a single on-grid tariff, but are jointly determined by mechanism electricity prices, mechanism electricity volume, market transaction prices, consumption conditions, and output curves. In 2027, bidding in some provinces shows "higher prices and lower volumes." Price floors help stabilize investment expectations, but the contraction of mechanism electricity volume will also increase exposure to market-based returns; in the future, power station value will depend more on location, consumption, and trading capability, and competition among operators will extend from resource acquisition to asset operation. In 2026, both the wind and solar sectors lack index-level rallies, with divergence between fundamentals and share price performance Solar PV is jointly suppressed by rush-installation demand pull-forward, falling demand, low prices, and losses in the main supply chain. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously track whether "anti-involution" can further transmit from quotation repair to inventory reduction, capacity exit, and profit recovery, and whether BC can convert penetration rate gains into sustained per-watt excess profit. Wind power demand is falling but not stalling; wind turbine tender volume is declining while prices are stable, and domestic deep-sea and European offshore wind provide medium- to long-term increments; offshore wind construction starts, overseas orders, and profit recovery still need to be verified through actual delivery and cash flow. Global new energy demand will still grow over the next three years, but the incremental structure will shift from high-base domestic expansion to overseas wind power and energy storage Domestic PV installations are expected to gradually stabilize, domestic onshore wind will remain at a high level, and domestic offshore wind is expected to accelerate under the push of deep-sea projects; in overseas markets, overseas large-scale storage, overseas offshore wind, and commercial & industrial storage are the faster-growing directions. EB SECURITIES estimates that global new PV installations in 2026-2028 will be 449GW/494GW/526GW, respectively; global new onshore wind installations will be 163GW/164GW/167GW, respectively; global new offshore wind installations will be 15GW/22GW/23GW, respectively; global new energy storage demand is expected to reach 442GWh/545GWh/598GWh, respectively; and the 2025-2028 CAGRs of global new installations for PV/onshore wind/offshore wind/energy storage are -2%/3%/35%/25%, respectively. Green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol is transitioning from a pure new energy consumption solution to a green fuel industry with actual orders and delivery scenarios "15th Five-Year Plan" policy support, green certification, cross-border trade, and ship bunkering cases are jointly driving the formation of a commercial closed loop, but the industry is still in the early stages of engineering and commercialization. At this stage, it is more appropriate to understand it as a "green fuel option" on new energy assets; future value depends on whether low-cost green electricity, project commissioning, long-term offtake agreements, and green premiums can be jointly realized. Risk analysis New energy policy and power market reform progress fall short of expectations; new wind, solar, and storage installation demand is lower than expected; overseas geopolitical risks.