The gaming industry's "super money printer" gets a new release next week.

A game that has sold continuously for 13 years, with cumulative sales approaching 235 million copies, is about to get a sequel next week. For Wall Street, this launch carries an expectation: can a business that has generated revenue for years open a new profit growth cycle? Next Thursday, *Grand Theft Auto VI* (hereinafter referred to as *GTA VI*) will officially launch worldwide. According to estimates by industry firm Sensor Tower, as of November 13, *GTA VI* pre-orders have exceeded 12 million copies; Morgan Stanley expects sales could surge to 40 million copies by March 2027. Based on market expectations for the new game, game company Take-Two's (TTWO.US) stock price has doubled since 2023. Wall Street predicts that the development cost of this single game alone may exceed US$1 billion. (Take-Two weekly stock chart, source: TradingView) Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick recently said in a low-key media interview: "We are usually very cautious when discussing topics like this, but our expectations were already high, and actual performance has far exceeded those expectations." **Astonishing commercial returns spanning 13 years** The industry's attention to *GTA VI* stems from the huge success of its predecessor. In September 2013, *GTA V* generated over US$800 million in global retail sales on its first day, surpassing US$1 billion in the first three days. Take-Two said at the time that this was the fastest any entertainment product, including games and films, had reached that sales scale. Subsequent performance better explains the game's investment value. In its prepared remarks for its November 9 earnings call this year, Take-Two disclosed that cumulative sales of *GTA V* have approached 235 million copies; in the quarter, both recurring consumer spending for the *GTA* series and average monthly membership for GTA+ achieved double-digit percentage growth. Revenue from this game is divided into two parts: players purchase the game, and can then buy virtual currency, additional content, and more in online mode. Continuous updates enable a product whose main development is already complete to keep attracting users to pay for years. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. estimated in April this year that, even today, global players still spend approximately US$600 million annually on *GTA V*'s online mode. **Wall Street bets on multi-year profit growth** As the launch approaches, Wall Street institutions have begun pricing in the profit growth this game will bring. According to statistics, JPMorgan reiterated Take-Two's "Overweight" rating on November 10 with a target price of US$310; Jefferies Financial Group Inc. maintained its "Buy" rating and US$300 target price; Bank of America Corp maintained its "Buy" rating and US$330 target price, and continued to list it as a top pick. Even though the most recent quarter's performance was less than satisfactory, some institutions did not change their judgment. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst James Heaney noted that weaker NBA 2K performance dragged down quarterly net bookings, but the report did not change its investment thesis, and *GTA VI* pre-order performance still exceeded the company's initial expectations. JPMorgan, meanwhile, raised its forecast for Take-Two's net bookings this fiscal year to US$8.3 billion, above the company's guidance of US$8 billion to US$8.2 billion. The bank's US$310 target price corresponds to about 29 times estimated adjusted earnings per share of US$10.59 for the fiscal year ending March 2028, with valuation already looking toward the full fiscal year after the new title's launch. UBS Group AG believes the company's decision to maintain its full-year guidance is relatively conservative, with a large amount of sales likely concentrated at the launch point and in the following weeks. The bank expects subsequent content updates, new platform versions, and new games to drive net bookings, profit, and free cash flow to new levels. Compared with first-launch sales, the long-term monetization capability of online mode has a greater bearing on profit forecasts. Bank of America Corp analysts estimate that GTA online mode could contribute 40% to 60% of Take-Two's earnings per share in the fiscal year ending March 2029. When the new online experience launches, how it will be charged, and how it will connect with the GTA+ subscription service will become key variables for institutions. For the upcoming launch, Bank of America Corp also provided specific indicators to watch. The bank believes first-weekend sales will be closely watched: if below US$1.5 billion, it may mean sales will struggle to meet investors' expectations for this fiscal year. At the same time, game content quality and public feedback will become important factors affecting market judgment in the early launch period. **Seizing holiday time, impact extends to streaming** HR platform BambooHR pointed out that paid time-off requests on the game's launch day were nearly 13% higher than on comparable dates in 2024 and 2025. The launch timing coincides with the week before Thanksgiving, and some players are even preparing to start their holidays early. PwC also noted in a special report published this month that this launch will compete for consumers' time and wallets. The first to feel the impact is streaming: players occupying living room TVs for long periods may squeeze holiday binge-watching time, and the impact may even extend through December. Bart Spiegel, PwC's global entertainment and media leader, said that as a large number of consumers focus their attention on *GTA VI*, he expects that in the first quarter of 2027, some companies may attribute weaker performance in certain metrics on earnings calls to the game's launch. This article is reprinted from Cailian Press, edited by GMTEight: Li Fo.