Guotai Haitong 2027 Early-Year Sales Campaign Product Review: Participating Insurance Dominates the Early-Year Campaign; Focus on Customer Interests and Services

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that early-year sales campaign performance is expected to beat expectations, and investors should focus on the recovery opportunities for listed insurers at extremely low valuations. On the liability side, the phased decline in life insurance new premium growth under a high base does not change the strong long-term demand trend for insurance savings products; improving product term structure is conducive to supporting value growth; focus on insurers' 2027 early-year sales campaign performance. On the asset side, profits are under phased pressure amid equity market volatility; insurance companies are expected to dynamically adjust equity and bond allocation strategies based on the external market environment to promote steady earnings and dividends. Current share prices reflect extremely pessimistic investment-side expectations, and with interest rates stabilizing and rebounding, there is room for valuation recovery for listed insurers. Maintain the industry "Overweight" rating. Guotai Haitong's main views are as follows: Recently, listed insurers have successively disclosed their 2027 insurance early-year sales campaign plans. The 2027 early-year sales campaign products are mainly participating increasing-amount whole life insurance and participating annuities. Based on calculations, the IRR including dividends over 30 years is approximately 2.18%2.68%. Companies are enriching their product systems around pension payouts, wealth accumulation, and intergenerational inheritance, through mechanisms such as dual insureds, flexible withdrawals, terminal dividends, and universal account combinations, combined with medical and elderly care services, to meet families' multi-layered protection and savings needs. The benefit performance and design mechanisms of each company's flagship early-year sales campaign products differ. (1) China Life: Mainly pension annuities, with clear long-term pension attributes. Xintai Jinsheng supports annual withdrawals, monthly withdrawals, and special survival benefits. Based on calculations, the IRR including dividends at 10/30 years is 1.07%/2.18%, with principal recovered in year 7; China Life Jiayuan provides supporting elderly care services. (2) Ping An: Both increasing-amount whole life insurance and annuities, with intergenerational inheritance and flexible pension withdrawals advancing together. Based on calculations, Yuxiang Xiyue whole life insurance has an IRR including dividends at 10/30 years of 1.55%/2.52%, with principal recovered in year 6; the same series' pension annuity has a 30-year IRR of 2.33%, with clear long-term pension attributes. The former supports a second insured, while the latter allows withdrawals starting as soon as 21 days later for eligible policyholders. (3) CPIC: Shengshi Hongyun S (Hengying Version) participating increasing-amount whole life insurance focuses on dual co-insurance and eligible premium waivers. Based on calculations, under a 10-year payment plan, protection is emphasized in the first 10 years, with an IRR including dividends at 30 years of 2.27%, with supporting CPIC Jiayuan elderly care services. (4) New China Life: Annuities and increasing-amount whole life insurance cover both medium-term withdrawals and long-term accumulation. Based on calculations, Hongda Rensheng Hengtai Version has an IRR including dividends at 10/30 years of 2.25%/2.56%, with notable 10-year returns; Shengshi Rongyao Jinzun Version combined with a universal account has an IRR including dividends at 10/30 years of 2.04%/2.68%, with principal recovered in year 4, with supporting New China An and New China Yue services. (5) AIA: Wealth and protection systems work in synergy. On the wealth line, Chuanshi Yingjia Zhencang Version has an IRR including dividends at 10/30 years of 1.15%/2.55%, with principal recovered in year 10, and supports dual insureds; for high-net-worth clients, it offers the Zhixiang Zunyu series, featuring increasing-amount and terminal dividends and a dedicated participating account. On the protection side, it launched Chuanshi Yingruyi Shunxin/Xingxiang Zhencang critical illness insurance with added medical expense compensation, while Yingxiangban focuses on participating whole life insurance + lifetime care rider. (6) Taikang: Outstanding customer returns, linked to physical medical and elderly care resources. Changqi Xinxiang Shijia 2027 Zunxiang Version participating increasing-amount whole life insurance is the flagship product, with an IRR including dividends at 10/30 years of approximately 2.02%/2.65%, with principal recovered in year 5, linking to physical medical and elderly care resources through Xingfu Youyue, Taikang Home, and medical networks. Early-year sales campaign performance is expected to beat expectations; focus on the recovery opportunities for listed insurers at extremely low valuations. On the liability side, the phased decline in life insurance new premium growth under a high base does not change the strong long-term demand trend for insurance savings products; improving product term structure is conducive to supporting value growth; focus on insurers' 2027 early-year sales campaign performance. On the asset side, profits are under phased pressure amid equity market volatility; insurance companies are expected to dynamically adjust equity and bond allocation strategies based on the external market environment to promote steady earnings and dividends. Current share prices reflect extremely pessimistic investment-side expectations, and with interest rates stabilizing and rebounding, there is room for valuation recovery for listed insurers. Maintain the industry "Overweight" rating. Risk warnings: decline in long-end interest rates; capital market volatility; liability cost control falling short of expectations.