Wall Street and Silicon Valley Push Hard for Anthropic's IPO: A "Too Big to Fail" AI Defense Battle

Anthropic is racing toward what could be the largest IPO in history, and driving this listing is not only Wall Street's profit-seeking instinct but also the entire technology ecosystem's collective bet on the future of AI. Anthropic disclosed this week that it plans to raise up to US$100 billion at a valuation of up to US$1.4 trillion. The company has launched a roadshow with 22 underwriters and has secured commitments from seven technology giantsincluding NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US)to invest a combined US$26 billion immediately after the listing. Craig Coben, former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America Corp, characterized the IPO as "too crucial to fail." The listing has not been smooth sailing. Debt concerns stemming from the overexpansion of AI infrastructure have roiled stock and bond markets for weeks, and the sudden resignation of NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang has further heightened market unease. Nevertheless, Anthropic co-founder and CEO Dario Amodei deliberately projected an air of composure during the roadshow"We don't agonize much over which month, which day, or what market environment we list in," he told Jamie Dimon on the 56th floor of JPMorgan's headquarters. Valuation and Lineup: An Unprecedented Capital Mobilization The scale of Anthropic's IPO exceeds that of any previous listing. The US$100 billion the company is seeking to raise and the valuation of up to US$1.4 trillion are both poised to set all-time recordsthough this is already a downward revision from the US$2 trillion valuation bankers floated during the summer, precisely because market sentiment has cooled markedly over the past few months. The 22 underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and Morgan Stanley, are pressing ahead with the roadshow. JPMorgan and Citi are leading sales to retail investors, and Anthropic expects retail to account for about 20% of the offering. According to Evercore analyst estimates, the participating banks collectively stand to collect about US$400 million in underwriting fees from the deal. Even more notable is the institutional lineup. Seven technology giantsincluding NVIDIA Corporation, Microsoft Corporation, and Broadcom Inc.have committed to invest a combined US$26 billion immediately after Anthropic's listing. Notably, these seven companies are not only partly existing shareholders of Anthropic but are all also paying customers. A successful Anthropic listing means these companies will have a more stable and enduring supplier of services. This alignment of interests makes these seven technology companies among the most motivated "supporters" of the IPO. Passive Flows and Hedging Demand: The Investor Logic of "Having to Buy" Beyond active investors, an invisible force is also escorting Anthropic. Given the company's enormous valuation, combined with recent new rules allowing large IPOs to be included in major stock indices more quickly, Anthropic will automatically receive tens of billions of dollars in inflows from passive index funds and ETFs in its early trading days. This mechanism creates a psychological pressure among active investors to "not miss out"holding Anthropic is essentially aligning with the broad market benchmark. Jeremy Abelson, founder of Irving Investors, described Anthropic as a "must-own" name on the grounds that "it's a hedge against existing portfolios." The logic is that Anthropic's previous product announcements have sometimes weighed on software sector stocks, meaning investors who do not hold Anthropic actually face structural exposure to the company. Michael Paulus, founder of wealth management firm PCM Encore, offered a more candid probabilistic assessment of the investment: "Will Anthropic's stock price be cut in halfor down 70%at some point in the next decade? Highly likely. But it could also rise to ten times its current value, and that's equally likely to be true." Roadshow Narrative: Commercial Ambition in a Restrained Style In its roadshow presentation, Anthropic deliberately chose a path markedly different from that of Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO in June this year. The SpaceX roadshow video opened with orchestral music, panned across the moon, and was paired with Musk's grand pronouncements about changing humanity's destiny; the underwriting banks even built rocket models in the lobby and served space-themed meals. Anthropic's roadshow video featured Dario Amodei in a teal sweater, warning within the first few minutes that AI poses risks of "creating bioweapons or launching cyberattacks"though he subsequently also called AI "the most promising technology in human history" and said he believes AI will help end cancer and mental illness within a decade. The gifts at JPMorgan's roadshow event were merely leather laptop bags and cookies printed with the word "Anthropic." In terms of content, the key message Anthropic executives conveyed to investors in private meetings was that the company will use IPO proceeds to develop its own chips and build its own data centers, actively controlling its own destiny in order to maintain independence amid market volatility. Dario Amodei also devoted considerable time in multiple investor meetings to the company's early explorations in new drug development and automated science laboratoriesthough according to two investors who attended, this direction has yet to show clear commercial progress. Noise Persists, IPO Window Still to Be Tested Anthropic chose to push ahead with the listing in a less-than-ideal market window. Investor concerns triggered by the massive debt-fueled expansion of AI infrastructure have continued to batter stock and bond markets over the past several weeks. And this week's resignation of NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang has cast a new shadow over the future investment outlook for the entire AI ecosystem. Speaking about the current situation, Craig Coben said, "The market currently believes the AI ecosystem can withstand the shock of Jensen Huang's resignation, but the market is still digesting in real time what all of this means and how it will affect future spending and investment." Next week, Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao and company President Daniela Amodei, Dario Amodei's sister, will travel to Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. to meet with investors, entering the final sprint of the roadshow. At the conclusion of the event on the 56th floor of JPMorgan, Mary Erdoes, head of the bank's asset and wealth management business, reiterated to those present the core message she had distilled from Dario Amodei's speech: "The goal is to promise less and deliver more. We truly hope they can do it." This article is reposted from "Wall Street Insights," author: Zhang Yaqi, GMTEight editor: Li Cheng.