As CoreWeave ignites AI fervor, can Nebius (NBIS.US) defend the AI computing rally with explosive results?

Title context: As CoreWeave ignites AI fervor, can Nebius (NBIS.US) defend the AI computing rally with explosive results? Text: CoreWeave (CRWV.US), one of the leaders of the NeoCloud segment, has sharply eased market anxiety and doubts about the neocloud business model with strong revenue growth data and much more optimistic-than-expected computing power orders and financing arrangements. The company's strong earnings fundamentals and explosive orders drove a broad rally across U.S. equity market stocks tied to the AI computing power industry chain. Another leading neocloud forceNebius Group NV (NBIS.US), the European tech leader that has shifted in recent years to focus on providing cloud-based AI computing power resourcesnow urgently needs to prove that rising computing power prices can be realized in tandem with better-than-expected capacity delivery and faster-than-expected funding availability, so that the new round of computing power fervor ignited by CoreWeave's strong results and Anthropic's IPO roadshow can continue. This comes after NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang was hit by another negative report, sending NVIDIA Corporation sharply lower after hours and dragging the entire AI computing power industry chain down in after-hours trading. Nebius Group will release its earnings report and future outlook before the U.S. market open on November 12 Beijing time. As of Wednesday's U.S. market close, CoreWeave's strong earnings and financing arrangements drove collective strength in memory chips, AI chips, optical interconnects and the neocloud sector, with CoreWeave and Nebius rising about 24.7% and 15.4%, respectively; but after hours, media reports about another extramarital affair involving Jensen Huang and board discussions about his future sent NVIDIA Corporation down more than 8%, and most AI computing power-related stock prices came under pressure. Meanwhile, CoreWeave's explosive results and the US$16.956 billion in quarterly revenue disclosed in Anthropic's prospectusespecially the AI application leader's multi-year purchase and lease commitments totaling US$900.9 billioncontinued to provide a basis for expanding computing power demand. What the market next needs Nebius to answer is whether robust demand can continue to deliverable, billable computing power with investment returns. Nebius focuses on integrating GPUs, high-speed optical interconnects, storage and scheduling software into training and inference services, and with a business structure centered on 1-3 year contracts, it aims to capture computing power price increases more quickly. Truist maintains a "Buy" rating and US$355 target price, precisely because it is bullish on this repricing capability; Citi raised its long-term revenue forecast but cut its target price, reflecting the market's higher requirements for financing and valuation. If this earnings report simultaneously delivers better-than-expected revenue, faster capacity ramp-up and a clear financing continuation plan, Nebius could turn the counteroffensive started by CoreWeave into a continuous validation of neocloud profitability potential, making earnings fundamentals once again an important bullish pricing basis for the AI computing power trading theme. CoreWeave ignites computing power counteroffensive, Nebius takes the baton to test growth quality As of the U.S. market close on November 11 Eastern Time, CoreWeave rose 24.7% and Nebius rose 15.44% to close at US$154.69; the Nasdaq 100 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.28% and 5.66%, respectively. Memory leaders Micron and SanDisk rose 11.89% and 13.69%, respectively, while optical interconnect leaders Lumentum and Coherent rose 10.67% and 9.25%, respectively, as capital returned to core AI computing infrastructure segments including AI chip-related core computing, storage, high-speed optical connectivity and computing power leasing, CPUs, PCBs and 3D advanced packaging. An important support for this rally is that computing power demand has begun to receive dual validation from revenue and funding sources. CoreWeave's third-quarter revenue reached US$3.661 billion, up 168% year over year, with full-year revenue guidance raised to US$13 billion-US$13.3 billion, and it expects to receive about US$9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months. Management also made clear that at current yield levels, it will mainly support construction through delayed draw term loans (DDTL) matched to specific customer contracts, reducing reliance on high-cost unsecured financing. The positive AI investment sentiment it conveys is undoubtedly that large customers are committed to helping computing power providers raise construction funds to a significant extent, reducing the possibility that order expansion is interrupted by financing obstacles. The AI application side also provided new demand evidence. Anthropic's prospectus disclosed third-quarter revenue of US$16.956 billion, up about 1,127% year over year and 46.7% quarter over quarter; purchase and lease commitments totaled US$900.9 billion, most of which involves computing power and infrastructure, of which US$451.6 billion is expected to occur before the end of 2030, with the remainder mainly distributed across 2031-2045. This reflects the link between model commercialization and long-term computing power procurement, but the conversion of these commitments into supplier revenue still depends on specific delivery arrangements. Anthropic's IPO therefore tests both application-layer valuation and the capital market's willingness to support subsequent computing power investment. It is worth noting, however, that a new trading variable emerged after Wednesday's close. Media reported during Thursday morning Beijing time that Jensen Huang was hit by another extramarital affair report and that NVIDIA Corporation's board discussed his future, with the stock falling more than 8% at one point after hours; Nebius also pulled back about 4.1% after hours. If Nebius's earnings report beats expectations simultaneously on revenue, delivery and financing, it could, following CoreWeave's strong results, greatly strengthen market confidence in computing power demand and may even significantly cool negative sentiment related to uncertainty about NVIDIA Corporation's management. Nebius's core value in the AI computing power industry chain is similar to CoreWeave's, mainly organizing GPUs, power, high-speed networks, storage and scheduling software into AI cloud services that can be delivered reliably. Large model training requires large numbers of GPUs to exchange parameters and data synchronously, while inference and agents continuously consume computing, memory and storage resources; buying chips alone cannot solve cluster efficiency and reliability issues. Nebius reduces customer deployment difficulty through InfiniBand interconnects, training scheduling and managed inference platforms, and takes on capacity demand that customers cannot build in time themselves. When supply is tight, rapid delivery and shorter contract terms together create repricing opportunities, allowing demand growth to be reflected faster in revenue per megawatt. Nebius earnings preview: computing power demand, contracts and financing plans become the focus Nebius Group will report third-quarter results before the U.S. market open on Thursday Beijing time, with Wall Street analysts consensus expecting a loss of US$0.63 per share and revenue of US$907.17 million for the quarter. In the previous quarter, the Netherlands-based AI computing infrastructure supplier reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and reiterated full-year 2026 guidance across metrics, including an annualized revenue run rate of US$7 billion to US$9 billion, group revenue of US$3 billion to US$3.4 billion (midpoint US$3.2 billion), and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40%. The consensus market forecast for full-year revenue is US$3.35 billion. Senior Wall Street analysts are generally bullish and will focus on Nebius's future construction progress, financing plans, and pricing of newly signed and shorter-term contracts. Truist Securities believes Nebius is especially positioned to capture computing power price increases because its business is mainly composed of contracts with terms of 1 to 3 years. The firm believes the company will have greater flexibility on shorter-term contracts to capture gains from price increases. The well-known Wall Street brokerage expects Nebius's annualized revenue run rate to exceed US$4.8 billion this quarter, with connected power capacity reaching 730 megawatts, of which operating capacity is about 600 megawatts, and reiterates a "Buy" rating and US$355 target price. Citigroup's equity research division also raised Nebius's fiscal 2027-2030 revenue forecasts by 20%, while expecting that against the backdrop of continued growth in computing power demand, annualized revenue run rate per megawatt will accelerate in the coming years. However, although the brokerage gave the stock a "Buy" rating, it cut its target price from US$324 to US$265. Overall, Seeking Alpha Quant Rating, Seeking Alpha platform analysts and Wall Street analyst ratings compiled by TipRanks all hold bullish views, giving the stock the most optimistic rating equivalent to "Buy." Compared with peer CoreWeave, Nebius's overall credit liabilities and operating leverage are much lower, so the company's stock price can be described as resilient compared with the former, whose stock price has nearly halved; Nebius shares have risen more than 82% year to date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark index, which rose nearly 10% over the same period. However, Seeking Alpha analyst Lee Bailey warned that Nebius faces risks from high capital expenditure, equity dilution and equipment replacement, and gave it a "Sell" rating. Bailey added that Nebius has signed major contracts with Microsoft Corporation and Meta, providing rare revenue visibility, but rapid expansion also exposes the company to execution and delivery risks and the risk of funding chain breaks related to AI infrastructure financing. Bailey concluded: "Current pricing and margins are excellent, but their sustainability remains uncertain because hardware refresh cycles and future competition may erode returns." Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 3 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have seen 7 upward revisions and 5 downward revisions. Computing power price increases open revenue space; capacity expansion and AI infrastructure financing costs affect shareholder returns and the trajectory of the AI computing power rally Nebius plans to report third-quarter results before the U.S. market open on November 12. The Seeking Alpha consensus expects revenue of US$907.17 million and a loss of US$0.63 per share, implying revenue growth of about 521% year over year and about 55.8% quarter over quarter. What the market is really focused on is whether new capacity has begun to contribute revenue and whether the company can meet its year-end annualized revenue run rate (ARR) target of US$7 billion-US$9 billion. It should be noted that ARR here is calculated as AI cloud revenue in the final month of the quarter multiplied by 12, reflecting the business scale at period end. Truist expects third-quarter ARR to exceed US$4.8 billion, corresponding to 730 megawatts of connected power capacity and about 600 megawatts of operating capacity; the gap between the two is precisely the key to converting capacity into billable services. The common basis for institutional bullishness is computing power supply constraints and short-contract repricing. Truist maintains a "Buy" rating and US$355 target price, bullish on a business structure centered on 1-3 year contracts to capture price increases; Citi raised its 2027-2030 revenue forecast by 20% but cut its target price from US$324 to US$265 while maintaining "Buy"; another Wall Street financial giant, Bank of America Corp, recently reiterated a "Buy" rating and US$310 target price, bullish on capacity expansion and price increases on shorter contracts. Based on the November 11 closing price of US$154.69, the three targets imply upside of about 129.5%, 71.3% and 100.4%, respectively. Citi's combination of a higher revenue forecast and a lower target price especially shows that operating growth and equity valuation are being driven by different factors, and strong demand still needs financing and capital returns to support it. This divergence can be understood to some extent from the financing structure. Nebius announced in October that it had obtained US$3.5 billion in senior secured financing from Citi with a 364-day term, an initial rate of term SOFR plus 275 basis points, subsequently stepping up as agreed. Therefore, after short-term construction funding is replenished, the market still needs to assess how long-term financing will continue. For GPU cloud companies, rising rents improve revenue, equipment utilization determines the degree to which fixed costs are diluted, and depreciation, replacement spending and interest determine final returns. The most valuable beat in this earnings report should be the simultaneous appearance of stronger AI computing power order data, higher billable capacity, better contract prices, and financing arrangements more appropriately matched to delivery pace.