Broker Morning Meeting Highlights | Hotter-than-expected US CPI Lifts December Rate Hike Expectations; Gold Prices Poised for Recovery

On the previous trading day (November 11), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3,680.64 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.32% to 11,389.74 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.11% to 2,572.07 points; combined turnover of the two markets was RMB2.154695 trillion; 3,538 stocks advanced and 1,827 declined, with 75 hitting the daily limit-up and 1 hitting the limit-down. Huafu Securities believes that both US CPI and core CPI rose more than expected month-on-month, the main inflation driver has shifted to domestic-demand services, and a December rate hike is essentially a done deal; CITIC SEC believes that US equities will be more suited to buying on dips next year, US Treasury yields and the dollar will edge lower, and gold prices are poised for recovery; Guotai Haitong believes that satellite internet constellation deployment is accelerating, and the market space for rocket engines in 2027-2029 is approximately RMB2.5 billion/5 billion/10 billion; SDIC Securities believes that leaps in large-model capabilities are accelerating the scenario-based deployment of Siasun Robot&Automation; Huayuan Securities believes that bond ETF scale has hit a new high, with its share rising to 22.0%, and subscriptions remain the main driver of expansion. CITIC SEC: US equities may be more suited to buying on dips next year; US Treasury yields and the dollar to edge lower; gold prices poised for recovery The global economy has remained resilient this year, peace hopes have re-emerged in the Middle East, and the blue wave in the midterm elections is expected to influence next year's market narrative. CITIC SEC expects the US economy to grow moderately at a more balanced pace next year, the EU's domestic demand to continue expanding, and Japan's economy to recover; the impact of oil price shocks will weaken next year, overall inflation in Europe and the US may fall back after plateauing, the European and US central banks are nearing the end of this rate-hike cycle, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates quarter by quarter through the first half of next year. On asset allocation, US equities may be more suited to a buy-on-dips strategy next year, with a preference for balanced styles; both US Treasury yields and the dollar index have room to edge lower, and gold prices are expected to recover as expectations of liquidity tightening weaken. Huafu Securities: US CPI and core CPI both beat expectations month-on-month; inflation mainline shifts to domestic-demand services; December rate hike essentially a done deal US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in October (above the 0.3% expected and the prior 0.6%), while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month (above the 0.2% expected and the prior 0.3%). By component, energy was the main reason for the slowdown in the monthly CPI increase, with its month-on-month contribution falling from 0.4% last month to 0.05%; the food contribution rose to 0.07%, core goods fell to 0.04%, and the core services pull fell 0.06 percentage points to 0.18%. The structural divergence is clear: the energy pull has faded, food has rebounded marginally, core services inflation remains notably resilient, and core goods have weakened slightly; the main inflation driver has shifted from energy to domestic-demand services inflation. Services inflation is showing a broadening pattern: core services rose 0.3% month-on-month, with the increase above 0.3% for three consecutive months, of which housing rent rose 0.3% month-on-month and hotel accommodation 0.7%; transportation services (excluding energy services) rose to 0.8% month-on-month, rising for four consecutive months, indicating that energy price increases are showing signs of passing through to core CPI; services CPI excluding housing rent continued to strengthen to 0.5% (prior 0.3%), with endogenous inflation pressure continuing to build. After the data release, the dollar index surged rapidly past the 102 integer mark, COMEX gold prices came under pressure and fell, all three major US stock index futures turned lower, US Treasury yields rose sharply with both the long and short ends up more than 10bp, the term spread narrowed further, and the market priced the probability of a Fed December rate hike at over 100%. The resilience of core services inflation beating expectations, combined with AI-related inflation pressure, means that inflation is unlikely to converge toward the 2% target at the current level of interest rates, which is also the core logic for the Fed to keep rates higher and extend the high-rate cycle; this CPI is the last inflation report before the December FOMC meeting, and Huafu judges that a December rate hike is essentially a done deal. The focus of subsequent speculation will shift to the rate-hike path in the first half of next year, with two clues to track: whether the Democrats will slow the pace of AI investment after winning the election, and whether the lagged effects of earlier rate increases can suppress demand in traditional industries. Guotai Haitong: Satellite internet constellation deployment accelerating; rocket engine market space expected to reach RMB2.5 billion/5 billion/10 billion in 2027-2029 Demand for satellite internet constellation deployment is being released at an accelerating pace, and the market space for rocket engines is expected to continue expanding. Commercial aerospace is driving the space industry's transition from customized, small-batch, high-cost production to standardized, large-scale, low-cost production; low-orbit satellite frequency and orbital resources are scarce, and under the ITU constellation deployment deadline requirements, rocket launch demand is urgent. In 2026, China's rocket recovery technology achieved a breakthrough, but large-scale reuse still requires sustained verification, with limited near-term impact on new engine demand. Assuming at least 10 types of liquid rockets have constellation deployment launch capability, with single-model annual launches of 5/10/20 times in 2027-2029 respectively, based on 10 engines per rocket and RMB5 million per engine, the corresponding annual theoretical market space is approximately RMB2.5 billion/5 billion/10 billion respectively. On the technology route, liquid oxygen/kerosene is mature and has become the mainstream choice for most rockets, while liquid oxygen/methane, with its reusability potential, has become an important development direction; the supply system is shifting from being dominated by central SOEs to joint development by diverse entities. Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group has deep technical accumulation; private companies such as LandSpace, Space Pioneer, Galactic Energy, CAS Space, iSpace and Orienspace are advancing independent development and building full-rocket integration capabilities, while independent propulsion suppliers such as JiuZhou YunJian are exploring specialized supporting models. Technical barriers are concentrated in two major segments: materials and materials processing. On the materials side, high-performance copper alloys, superalloys, titanium alloys and refractory metals form the core materials system; on the processing side, complex cooling channels and precision structures place stringent demands on forming processes and machining accuracy, while metal additive manufacturing has significant advantages in forming complex structures, reducing part counts and shortening manufacturing cycles. SDIC Securities: Proliferation of large models drives scenario-based deployment of Siasun Robot&Automation; embodied AI race accelerates at home and abroad With large models flourishing, scenario-based deployment of Siasun Robot&Automation is viewed favorably. In September 2026, GPT-6 Astra was released, pushing Siasun Robot&Automation from "able to perform actions" to "able to complete tasks": according to an evaluation by the Galaxy General team, the hybrid architecture scored 62.6 points, with the second place at only 38.26 points, greatly raising the capability ceiling of end-to-end embodied models in semantic understanding, visual perception and task planning, though shortcomings remain in tasks relying on contact stability and fine control. In November 2026, Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2; in the RoboDojo Siasun Robot&Automation simulation test, Fable 5.2 scored as high as 64.9%, clearly ahead of GPT-6 Astra's 29.8% and its own older model's 27.6%; large models can directly watch camera feeds to control dual arms to unscrew bottle caps, solve Rubik's cubes, and even draw simple sketches. Looking ahead, domestic models are also expected to use open source and specific scenario deployment to lower training and application costs, gradually closing "the last mile of Siasun Robot&Automation deployment." Overseas players are accelerating their entry, and the embodied AI race is intensifying. On November 4, Apple released a paper on humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation progress, demonstrating the HALO autonomous system (pretrained on simulation data, running onboard), deployed to a Unitree G1 Siasun Robot&Automation for real-world testing in unseen real home scenarios, achieving an average single-task success rate of 91%. According to The Information, Meta has partnered with Chinese Siasun Robot&Automation maker Fourier Intelligence to develop the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation prototype Max, and has begun developing the second-generation Max 2; its CTO internally regards humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation as the physical embodiment of personal agents. Huayuan Securities: Bond ETF scale hits a new high, share rises to 22.0%; subscriptions remain the main driver of expansion Bond ETF scale has hit a new high, with its share of the whole-market ETF total rising to 22.0%, and subscriptions remain the main driver of expansion: net inflows in October were RMB55.68 billion, while net value changes dragged scale down by about RMB2.68 billion, ultimately producing a scale increase of RMB52.99 billion; credit bond and rate bond products expanded together, while convertible bond ETF scale fell back. Return stratification continues, with the advantage of ultra-long bonds narrowing versus September. In October, most pure bond ETFs posted positive returns, with long-duration rate bond and local government bond products relatively favored, while convertible bond ETF returns fell markedly; credit bond trading continued to increase in volume, with trading still concentrated in top products, premiums/discounts overall mild, credit bond discounts narrowing, and month-end shocks disturbing ultra-long bonds, with the duration-return relationship weakening temporarily. Currently, short- and medium-term bond yields are at historical lows, credit spreads are low, and the yield curve remains steep, so opportunities in ultra-long bonds remain relatively prominent.