CPCA: National passenger vehicle retail sales reached 293,000 units from November 1-8, up 2% from the same period last month.

CPCA data shows that from November 1-8, national passenger vehicle retail sales in the market reached 293,000 units, down 21% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 2% from the same period last month; from November 1-8, national passenger vehicle manufacturers' wholesale sales were 333,000 units, down 20% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 63% from the same period last month. On the new energy side, from November 1-8, national passenger vehicle market new energy retail sales were 219,000 units, down 7% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 27% from the same period last month; from November 1-8, national passenger vehicle manufacturers' new energy wholesale sales were 262,000 units, down 3% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 63% from the same period last month. Penetration rate: from November 1-8, the new energy retail penetration rate in the national passenger vehicle market was 74.9%; from November 1-8, the new energy wholesale penetration rate for national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 78.7%. November 2026 National Passenger Vehicle Market Retail Sales Trend In the first week of November, average daily retail sales in the national passenger vehicle market were 37,000 units, down 21% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 2% from the same period last month. From November 1-8, national passenger vehicle market retail sales were 293,000 units, down 21% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 2% from the same period last month; year-to-date cumulative retail sales were 15.27 million units, down 22% year-on-year. The start of November showed weak recovery characteristics of "year-on-year pressure, month-on-month stabilization." From November 1-8, passenger vehicle retail sales were 293,000 units, down 21% year-on-year, but up slightly by 2% month-on-month. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales were 15.27 million units, down 22% year-on-year, indicating that the overall market remains in a downward channel, but signs of stabilization are emerging amid bottom-range fluctuations. Core reasons: first-time purchases hindered, replacement demand underpinning the market. Persistently high international oil prices combined with recent domestic fuel price increases have led to unexpectedly weak fuel vehicle consumption, accelerating the substitution of oil-powered vehicles by electric ones. At the same time, affected by K-shaped consumption divergence, the incremental first-time purchase demand from younger groups is temporarily constrained. The core support for the current auto market has shifted to replacement of existing vehicles; trade-in programs, scrappage renewal policies, and local subsidies have effectively shored up the fundamentals. Outlook: stable operation, strong year-end rally unlikely. Looking ahead to the coming weeks, driven by the combined efforts of local subsidies and year-end promotions by automakers, the auto market will generally remain stable. However, affected by the high base effect from the same period last year, the year-on-year negative growth trend in November is difficult to reverse, and a year-end "tail-end rally" is likely to be absent, as the market is fully transitioning into a stable period of stock competition. November 2026 National Passenger Vehicle Manufacturers' Wholesale Sales Trend In the first week of November, average daily wholesale sales from national passenger vehicle manufacturers were 42,000 units, down 20% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 63% from the same period last month. From November 1-8, national passenger vehicle manufacturers' wholesale sales were 333,000 units, down 20% year-on-year from the same period in November last year and up 63% from the same period last month; year-to-date cumulative wholesale sales were 22.704 million units, down 6% year-on-year. Traditional fuel vehicles have been suppressed by high oil prices, with first-time purchase demand shrinking severely in autumn and winter, leading to a sharp decline in domestic wholesale sales, and inventory improving only slightly due to reduced volumes. New energy vehicles, meanwhile, face the awkward situation of "lacking hit models," but to maintain the operation of the massive industrial chain and production-sales targets, manufacturers cannot schedule production based on orders and have fully shifted to "target-based sales" by forcefully pushing inventory to channels, resulting in slight growth in new energy retail sales but rising channel inventory. Overall, the current auto market shows characteristics of "strong manufacturers, weak retailers, production-determined sales." To sprint toward annual targets, manufacturers have no choice but to shift inventory pressure to channels. Against the backdrop of weak recovery in real demand, year-end volume will highly depend on manufacturers' forceful inventory pushing and terminal promotions, and dealers' cash flow and inventory risks warrant urgent vigilance. January-October 2026 Auto Exports 9.74 Million, Full-Year Forecast 12 Million Data shows that from January to October 2026, China's cumulative auto (including chassis) exports reached 9.736 million units, a sharp increase of 49.6% year-on-year; total export value reached RMB1.16397 trillion, up 45.8% year-on-year. Among them, October single-month export volume reached as high as 1.108 million units, with single-month value of RMB133.39 billion, setting a historical high. Based on cumulative value and volume, the average export price per vehicle is approximately RMB119,600. This set of data clearly indicates that against the backdrop of periodic pressure in the domestic auto market, exports have completely transformed from a "supplementary increment" into the absolute mainstay supporting the overall industry, with main models highly concentrated in the mainstream cost-effective range of RMB100,000-150,000. Parts growth significantly lags, reflecting the new trend of "capacity going global" replacing "pure trade exports." In sharp contrast to the explosive near-50% growth of complete vehicles, from January to October the cumulative export value of auto parts was RMB609.85 billion, up only 7.4% year-on-year, presenting a huge "scissors gap." This disconnect is not due to shrinking overseas demand, but because the overseas expansion model of Chinese automakers is undergoing qualitative change. As leading automakers such as BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ) and Chery (09973) accelerate the construction of KD plants or wholly-owned factories in Thailand, Brazil, Europe, and other locations, large quantities of parts no longer flow overseas in the form of pure "trade exports," but instead undergo localized assembly along with complete vehicle manufacturers. This "whole industrial chain going global" directly diverts the growth rate of pure parts exports.