Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are mixed; Fed's Waller takes a hawkish stance, a 50-basis-point rate hike in December is possible; US October CPI to be released tonight.

Premarket Market Moves 1. On Tuesday, November 10, ahead of the U.S. market open, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.36%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.19%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX was up 1.33%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.47%, France's CAC 40 was up 1.15%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 1.22%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude was down 1.15% at $85.85 per barrel. Brent crude was down 1.35% at $91.32 per barrel. Market News Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surges nearly 7% + oil prices cool, AI computing power counteroffensive "clears another hurdle": tonight's CPI data becomes the touchstone. U.S. tech stocks have just seen a strong recovery after a sharp selloff, and the U.S. October CPI inflation data due to be released Tuesday evening Beijing time has immediately become the latest hurdle testing the sustainability of the tech rally led by the AI computing power theme. The market currently expects headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% and 0.2% month-on-month, respectively. What this CPI inflation data really needs to answer is whether cooling energy prices can drive a broader easing of price pressures, or whether services stickiness and AI buildout demand will continue to support Fed tightening. Strong employment has increased the economy's capacity to withstand rate hikes, while sticky services prices and concentrated demand from data centers for power, equipment, and construction workers may prolong price pressures. Market bets on a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December remain above 80%. Fed's Waller: Supports a December hike, would consider 50 basis points if inflation accelerates. Fed Governor Waller said on Tuesday that he supports a rate hike in December and warned that if inflation continues to accelerate, he would support a 50-basis-point hike to safeguard the Fed's credibility. Waller's blunt remarks are the strongest signal yet from a Fed official that policymakers not only need to raise rates in December but may do so by more than the 25 basis points the market expects. Waller said that despite a strong economy and a stable labor market, inflation remains too high. "If, as I expect, October inflation improves on a month-on-month basis, I would lean toward supporting a 25-basis-point increase in the policy rate," Waller said. "But if the October CPI data released later today are similar to the readings of the past two monthswith core CPI inflation around 0.3% or even higherthen stronger policy action may be needed. In that case, I think a 50-basis-point hike should be considered at the December meeting." Fed regional presidents sound loudly hawkish! Goolsbee warns AI investment boom may overheat the economy, Barkin supports further hikes. Both regional Fed presidents expressed concern about persistently high inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the artificial intelligence (AI) data center construction boom could exacerbate overheating in the U.S. economy, prompting the Fed to take more aggressive measures. Goolsbee believes that the U.S. job market and economic growth remain broadly stable, and the main problem facing the economy is still inflation being too high. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that strong demand and stubborn inflation mean rates still need to be raised further. But Barkin added that given risks to the economic outlook, the pace of hikes should remain cautious. Expectations of easing in the Middle East! Brent briefly fell below $90, U.S. gasoline returns to the "3-dollar era." As traders increased bets that the Middle East war could be resolved, international oil prices deepened their decline. Meanwhile, as international oil prices fell, gasoline prices also pulled back. U.S. gasoline prices fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since July. Since the U.S. midterm elections, hopes have risen for progress in peace negotiations and a restoration of Middle East energy supplies. Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. Congress are considering whether to use the December 11 government shutdown deadline to pressure Trump to end the conflict, which has now entered its ninth month. After the midterm election results highlighted the unpopularity of the conflict, Trump said on one hand that the United States remains "locked and loaded, ready to act," while on the other hand signaling hope for a gradual end to the conflict. Individual Stock News Jensen Huang and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) face a class-action lawsuit, accused of defrauding shareholders! Five minutes after the U.S. market close on November 9, NVIDIA Corporation and Jensen Huang were hit with a shareholder class-action lawsuit accusing them of defrauding shareholders. The plaintiffs claim that Huang had an extramarital affair with a former executive of a Singapore data center company (Megaspeed). NVIDIA Corporation and Huang himself did not publicly disclose this personal relationship to outside investors, thereby damaging the company's reputation and future business prospects. The plaintiffs are seeking legal liability and compensation from NVIDIA Corporation and Huang, but the complaint has not yet specified a exact claim amount. Amid the controversy, Huang's future has become a market focus. The market is currently divided into two camps. The "pessimists" believe the loss of Huang would be "incalculable," while the "optimists" believe Huang is not that important. Anthropic IPO seeks to raise up to $64.4 billion, combined with a $26 billion private placement for total financing of up to $90.4 billion. Anthropic's latest regulatory filing shows the company plans to issue shares at a price range of $70 to $78 per share, with the IPO raising up to $64.4 billion, and will additionally raise $26 billion through a private placement to cornerstone investors including Alphabet Inc. Class C and NVIDIA Corporation, bringing total financing to up to $90.4 billion. The listing will be the first public-market test of frontier AI companies' valuations, growth prospects, and risks. Although demand for Claude products drove third-quarter revenue up 47% quarter-on-quarter to $16.96 billion, the company still faces AI competition, safety risks, and massive infrastructure cost pressures from nearly $900 billion in computing commitments. Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) Q3 revenue up 73% year-on-year, beating expectations; backlog reaches $3.57 billion, but losses widen. The earnings report showed that the company's Q3 revenue rose about 73% year-on-year to $268 million, a record high, above the upper end of the company's prior guidance of $250 million to $265 million and the market consensus of about $257 million; loss per share was $0.12, $0.05 better than market expectations. GAAP net loss was $79.7 million, widening year-on-year, mainly dragged down by a $27.3 million loss on debt extinguishment, $21.3 million in transaction costs for the Iridium acquisition, and $3.5 million in tax expenses. As of the end of September, backlog reached $3.57 billion, up 52% quarter-on-quarter and up about $1.2 billion in the quarter, including about $1 billion in new launch contracts and $470 million in space systems contracts. Launch backlog rose to 117 launches, a record high. On guidance, the company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $270 million to $290 million, non-GAAP gross margin of 39% to 41%, GAAP gross margin of 34% to 36%, and adjusted EBITDA loss of $14 million to $20 million. As of press time, Rocket Lab was down more than 6% in Tuesday's U.S. premarket. Q3 revenue nearly triples! AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) accelerates "going to space," with 45 satellites in orbit by mid-2027. Satellite direct-to-cell broadband company AST SpaceMobile's third-quarter earnings report showed revenue rose 188% year-on-year to $42.3 million, mainly from gateway equipment deliveries and achievement of U.S. government project milestones, in line with the company's revenue cadence of ramping quarter by quarter in 2026. But under heavy investment in large-scale network buildout, net loss widened in tandem, indicating the company is still in a critical phase of burning cash to build its network while waiting for revenue to scale. The company reiterated its full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million and said recent new contracts could bring upside; it also confirmed its target of achieving initial, intermittent nationwide coverage in key markets including the United States, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom by the end of 2026, with the first services opened to strategic partners. In addition, management targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by mid-2027, and launch agreements for cumulative deployment of more than 100 satellites in 2027-2028 have been finalized. Turning a profit on paper gains from bitcoin: MARA (MARA.US) Q3 net income $632 million, but revenue plunges 35% to a nine-quarter low. Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (MARA.US) reported third-quarter revenue down 35% year-on-year to $164.2 million, below the market expectation of $176.1 million. The main reason for the revenue decline was a 37% year-on-year plunge in the average price of bitcoin mined, which alone wiped out about $94.8 million in revenue. The company's revenue has now declined for four consecutive quarters, with the current level the lowest in nearly nine quarters. In sharp contrast to revenue is the profit side. Quarterly net income was $632.1 million; diluted earnings per share were $1.28, far exceeding the market expectation of a loss of $0.10 per share. But the composition of this profit warrants cautionit includes $885.3 million in unrealized fair value gains from bitcoin holdings (versus $343.1 million in the year-ago period), a typical "paper gain"; excluding this item, the company's operations remain in a loss. Take-Two (TTWO.US) Q2 revenue falls, loss narrows, GTA 6 launch imminent with "unprecedented" preorders. The earnings report showed that the company's quarterly net bookings were $1.600 billion, down 18% year-on-year, slightly below the company's prior guidance range of $1.620 billion to $1.670 billion; revenue was $1.500 billion, down about 15.4% year-on-year, also below the market consensus of about $1.66 billion. Under GAAP, net loss was $54 million; loss per share was $0.29, significantly narrower than the $0.73 loss per share in the year-ago period. Management reiterated full-year net bookings guidance of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion and for the first time provided third-quarter net bookings guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.50 billion, implying GAAP net revenue will "more than double" from this quarter, but the range is below the LSEG consensus of $3.51 billion. The company's CEO made positive comments on the launch of the new GTA title, noting that preorders are "far exceeding" initial expectations and helping offset weaker-than-expected net bookings for NBA 2K. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY.US) Q3 net income surges 148% year-on-year to $1.637 billion, cumulative debt reduction of $10.4 billion year-to-date. Benefiting from higher energy prices than a year earlier, Occidental Petroleum Corporation's Q3 revenue and net income both grew year-on-year. The earnings report showed that Occidental Petroleum Corporation's third-quarter revenue rose about 19% year-on-year to $6.567 billion, but fell about 19% quarter-on-quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, Occidental Petroleum Corporation's third-quarter adjusted net income from continuing operations was $1.951 billion, compared with $513 million a year earlier, up about 280% year-on-year; adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.91, compared with $0.51 a year earlier and $2.40 in the prior quarter. Debt reduction was also a major focus of this quarter's report. Occidental Petroleum Corporation said it further reduced debt principal by $1.8 billion in the third quarter, bringing debt principal down to $10 billion and achieving an important deleveraging target. Year-to-date, the company has repaid a cumulative $10.4 billion in debt. Hollywood giant Skydance (SKYD.US) Q3 core streaming revenue jumps 21%, first-half combined revenue doubles. The third-quarter report covers the former Paramount Skydance business for the period ended September 30. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) closed on October 6 and will only be consolidated starting in the fourth quarter. On a company-comparable basis, third-quarter revenue was $7.025 billion, up 5% year-on-year, slightly below the consensus of $7.070 billion by about $45 million. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.45, $0.32 above the FactSet consensus of $0.13 and $0.27 above the higher-level Zacks consensus of $0.18. Data showed that price increases and advertising monetization at Skydance's Paramount streaming unit are paying off, and the company also clarified its cost-reduction roadmap for the Warner integration, but the Warner film slate is underperforming expectations and could make fourth-quarter profit up to $200 million lower than previously expected. The market appears to be reassessing the pace at which the company's growth related to the Warner merger will materialize. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (HMC.US) first-half net profit up 65.7%, plans to expand North America and Brazil capacity. The earnings report showed that Honda's April-September sales revenue was 12.04 trillion yen, up 13.2% year-on-year; operating profit was 648.7 billion yen, up 48.1% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 5.4%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent was 516.7 billion yen, up 65.7% year-on-year, with earnings per share of 132 yen; adjusted operating profit excluding EV-related losses was 1.1336 trillion yen, up 71.3% year-on-year. The motorcycle business remains the profit pillar. First-half sales volume was 11.90 million units, up 10.6% year-on-year, a record high for the period; operating profit was 439.0 billion yen, up 19.2% year-on-year, with a margin of 19.3%. Full-year guidance was raised: sales revenue of 24.4 trillion yen, raised by 250 billion yen from before; operating profit of 780.0 billion yen, raised by 130 billion yen; net profit attributable to owners of the parent of 500.0 billion yen, raised by 100 billion yen; adjusted operating profit expected at 1.3 trillion yen. Vodafone Group Plc Sponsored ADR (VOD.US) first half swings to a loss, Germany business is the main drag. Vodafone Group Plc Sponsored ADR's fiscal 2027 first-half results showed total revenue of $21.9 billion (EUR21.853 billion), up 11.4% year-on-year; service revenue of EUR18.4 billion, up 12.8% year-on-year and up 5.8% organically. Germany remained the weakest linkorganic service revenue rose only 0.4% in the first half and turned to a 0.5% decline in the second quarter. First-half net loss was EUR3.6 billion (versus a profit of EUR1.1 billion a year earlier), mainly due to three non-cash items: a EUR4.85 billion goodwill impairment in Germany (mainly due to unfavorable interest rate changes), a EUR2.25 billion write-down of deferred tax assets in the UK (due to the full acquisition of VodafoneThree), partly offset by a one-off gain of EUR3.0 billion from consolidating Safaricom; adjusted earnings per share were 1.48 euro cents, down significantly year-on-year (versus 6.92 euro cents a year earlier), mainly because investment gains fell from EUR1.1 billion to EUR300 million. Key Economic Data and Event Preview 21:30 Beijing time: U.S. October CPI data 22:35 Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks 01:00 Beijing time the next day: EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook 02:30 Beijing time the next day: 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks 07:30 Beijing time the next day: 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks Earnings Preview Wednesday morning: CoreWeave (CRWV.US), Petrobras (PBR.US), Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US), Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US)