The narrative of AI "stealing jobs" is overturned: consulting and temp staffing recruitment both rise, and October data reveals that US employment increased rather than declined.

Notice that a little-watched category in Friday's blockbuster jobs report is challenging the prevailing view that AI is causing job losses. At least for now, the data suggest the US is adding jobs because of the AI boom, not losing them. And another category hints that the strong jobs data may have some staying power. According to the report released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October. The unexpected hiring surge far exceeded Wall Street expectationseconomists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected only 59,000 jobs added for the month. Here are three surprises in the report that investors may have overlooked. Consulting Hiring in the consulting industry surged during the month, pushing total employment in the occupation to a record high. Between September and October, the workforce of management, scientific and technical consultants grew by 17,300 positions, the largest month-over-month increase in nearly two years. The category is a subcomponent of the professional and business services sector tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and accounted for 25% of the sector's total gain for the month. More importantly, this workforce added more than 45,000 positions over the past year. According to BLS data, the increase pushed the total number of such workers above 1.9 million for the first time, a record high. After years of rapid expansion during the pandemic, consulting hiring has largely stalled since 2023. Wall Street has been questioning whether the rise of AI will dampen demand for such services. Those concerns have wiped out more than half of consulting firm Gartner's (IT.US) stock price over the past three years. Over the same period, Accenture Plc Class A (ACN.US) and FTI Consulting (FCN.US) fell about 18% and 9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 rose about 74% over the same period. Now, some economists speculate that the recent hiring jump may be driven by companies hiring consultants to help them adopt AI. Gartner forecast in September that global AI spending will reach $2.7 trillion in 2026, an increase of nearly 50% year over year. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said, "The buildout of AI and the need for companies to improve utilization will keep technology consultants employed." Roach called consulting a bright spot worth "watching closely" in October. He noted that these positions also posted double-digit growth in the late 1990s, when companies were rushing to bring new internet technology into their businesses. So far, the data suggest AI may be adding more jobs to the labor market than it displaces through automation. An assessment analyzed by Moody's Corporation found that since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, AI has net-created 786,000 jobs, partly thanks to data center construction. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Corporation, wrote on social media Monday, "Isn't AI supposed to destroy jobs? The most pessimistic forecasts even predicted mass unemployment," "That risk has not disappeared, and AI-driven productivity gains could still shift into higher gear. But for now, AI is adding to job growth, not reducing it." Temporary help Hiring of temporary workers also contributed to growth, which may signal that the labor market is heating up. The category added 18,600 payroll positions in October, one of the largest month-over-month increases since 2022. This category is also part of the professional and business services sector and accounted for 27% of the sector's gain for the month. The total size of this workforce remains well below its record peak set in 2022. But since last December, employment has grown about 3% and is now at its April 2025 levelthe month President Trump rolled out sweeping tariffs that put corporate America on alert. Economists view temporary hiring as a leading indicator of the labor market. The conventional wisdom is that companies hiring new workers on a short-term basis often convert them to full-time roles later. That may be exactly what is happening here, but the fact that it is near year-end makes it harder to tell. The increase could stem from hiring ahead of the holiday shopping seasonand if employers are staffing up for the holidays, those workers are less likely to be retained in January. Such hiring usually doesn't start this early, but the season is starting earlier each year. The BLS seasonally adjusts the data, but it won't adjust immediately if the trend itself is changing. One clue that holiday hiring may be moving earlier comes from another category of workers: couriers and messengers. This is another barometer of holiday labor demand, and a little more than one in every ten new jobs for the month came from this category. Jason Pride, chief investment strategist and head of research at wealth management firm Glenmede, said this category "needs to be watched for reversal in the coming months." Election spending In the final weeks of an expensive election cycle, hiring related to political campaigns may also have boosted payrolls. According to a BLS analysis, employment at political organizations has historically surged as midterm or presidential elections approach. Data show that staffing in these years often peaks in October. Nonfarm payrolls expanded in the months before the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. But the unusually large campaign funds in this cycle may have translated into more jobs than usual. According to an analysis by OpenSecrets, a watchdog group that tracks political money, the 2026 congressional elections will go down in history as the most expensive midterms on record. Billions of dollars in campaign spending may have translated into paid positions including door-to-door canvassing, phone banking or other election-related work.