Guotai Haitong: The long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the timing for long-cycle positioning is gradually emerging.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the timing for long-cycle positioning is gradually emerging. In copper, US October nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with strong employment and wages raising rate hike expectations and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on copper prices. After the US midterm elections, expectations for US-Iran detente warmed, and expectations for refined copper tax increases cooled, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. Domestic low inventories support spot prices, while high premiums suppress downstream operating rates; focus on next week's US CPI and import arrivals. On the equity side, focus on leading companies with significant future volume growth and strong earnings delivery capability. In rare earths, light and heavy rare earth prices showed mixed movements. In the medium to long term, continue to be bullish on the investment value of rare earths as key strategic resources. Guotai Haitong's main views are as follows: Precious metals: Midterm elections ease rate hike pressure, prices rebound sharply. Democrats retook both the Senate and House, with expectations of fiscal constraints and reduced war intensity; falling oil prices drove inflation to peak and cooled rate hike expectations. However, October nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the US labor market is balanced. The October FOMC held rates steady but internal divisions widened, with a hawkish tone. Central bank reserves stood at 78.3 million ounces at end-October, marking 24 consecutive months of increases. The long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and the timing for long-cycle positioning is gradually emerging. Copper: Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, copper prices range-bound and weak. US October nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with strong employment and wages raising rate hike expectations and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on copper prices. After the US midterm elections, expectations for US-Iran detente warmed, and expectations for refined copper tax increases cooled, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. Domestic low inventories support spot prices, while high premiums suppress downstream operating rates; focus on next week's US CPI and import arrivals. On the equity side, focus on leading companies with significant future volume growth and strong earnings delivery capability. Aluminum: Domestic destocking continues, aluminum prices under pressure amid off-season demand. On the demand side, the operating rates of leading aluminum processing enterprises rose slightly overall, but aluminum sheet/strip and aluminum foil operating rates fell 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points to 68.8% and 71.0%, respectively. On the inventory side, according to SMM statistics, as of November 5, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories in mainstream domestic consumption areas stood at 521,000 tonnes, down 28,000 tonnes from last Thursday; low inventories provide support, but falling outbound shipments and off-season demand weigh on prices. Tin: Low inventories provide a floor, rebound still awaits demand improvement. Smelter restarts brought supply recovery, and solder enterprises remain primarily procuring for immediate needs. US nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations pushed up rate hike expectations, combined with cooling AI trading; tin prices are expected to be range-bound and weak in the short term, while tight mine supply continues to provide support. On the equity side, wait for tin prices to stabilize in the short term. Energy metals: Weak reality persists, liquidity expectations drive oversold rebound. Lithium carbonate: This week the main contract first fell below 90,000 and then rebounded; after the US midterm elections, the market expects liquidity to return to easing, and the nonferrous beta rose broadly. Lithium carbonate, as a previously unanimously bearish, saw concentrated short covering. Jianxiawo has resumed production, and Gotion's environmental assessment has been accepted; Jiangxi's 2027 supply is relatively optimistic; November cathode production schedules turned negative, inventories still destocking but at a slower pace. Nickel sector: Indonesia's second batch of quotas was, and the 2027 contraction stance has not yet been traded; Indonesian domestic politics drove nickel prices higher. Cobalt sector: Weak demand coexists with rigid supply from the DRC, prices range-bound at lows; after memory prices fell, the return of consumer electronics demand is worth anticipating. Rare earths: Light and heavy rare earth prices showed mixed movements. In terms of demand and prices, as of November 6, 2026, prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide were RMB704,500/tonne, RMB1,445,000/tonne, and RMB6,275,000/tonne, down RMB7,000/tonne, up RMB15,000/tonne, and down RMB50,000/tonne, changes of -0.98%, +1.05%, and -0.79%. Overall rare earth trading remains sluggish, with prices diverging. In the medium to long term, continue to be bullish on the investment value of rare earths as key strategic resources. Strategic minor metals: Strategic value highlighted. Tungsten: Mine-side reluctance to sell and long-order price increases support tungsten prices in the short term; traditional hard alloy orders are limited in follow-through, and further upside depends on whether downstream turns to active restocking. On the equity side, prioritize companies with secured raw material supply and pricing power. Uranium: October natural uranium long-term contract price was US$91.6/lb, up from the previous month; rigid supply and nuclear power development create a long-standing uranium supply-demand gap, and uranium prices are expected to continue rising. Tantalum: Supply-demand mismatch supports tantalum prices; tantalum ore price is US$240.5/lb. Global tantalum ore supply is tight, AI development is driving rapid growth in end demand, tantalum prices are expected to remain elevated; continue to monitor capacity releases at leading companies. Risk warnings: Downstream demand weaker than expected, large-scale supply releases, and Fed rate cuts proceeding slower than expected.