Guosen: Deep-sea offshore wind capacity expansion opens value space for submarine cables and jacket foundations

Guosen: Deep-sea offshore wind capacity expansion opens value space for submarine cables and jacket foundations Guosen released a research report stating that the current cost of global offshore wind power has become economical enough to replace traditional fossil energy, while its full-lifecycle carbon emissions also make it an ideal clean energy choice. Looking ahead to 2026-2030, China's new offshore wind installations are expected to be 4/12/15/18/24 GW, with cumulative new additions of 73 GW, of which deep-sea projects account for 29 GW. Priority should be given to submarine cable companies with 330kV/500kV AC and flexible DC transmission cable capabilities, followed by pipe pile companies with leading jacket foundation production capacity and dock conditions and with overseas orders. Guosen's main views are as follows: Offshore wind power is the mainstream choice for global clean energy development The current cost of global offshore wind power has become economical enough to replace traditional fossil energy, while its full-lifecycle carbon emissions also make it an ideal clean energy choice. The offshore wind power industry has many external benefits: 1. Projects are located far from residential areas, making noise and visual environmental issues less likely, and there are no road restrictions during construction; 2. The installation areas are broad, allowing selection of sites with better wind conditions and higher capacity factors; 3. They can be close to power load centers, resulting in lower related infrastructure costs; 4. Offshore wind power is a technology-intensive field with a high degree of innovation, and developing offshore wind power can cultivate and support local emerging industries, drive fixed asset investment and employment. China market demand and project foundation: During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, cumulative grid-connected offshore wind power will exceed 100 million kilowatts, with approved capacity leading installations The "15th Five-Year Plan" outline proposes offshore wind power bases in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea, striving for cumulative grid-connected offshore wind power of more than 100 million kilowatts; the National Energy Administration proposes raising the share of terminal electricity consumption to around 35% by 2030. From January to September 2026, new offshore wind installations were 2.45 GW (down 30% year on year), but approvals from January to October were 8.9 GW (up 41% year on year), and the improvement in approvals provides a reserve for volume growth after 2027. Scale and economic benefits: 24 GW of new additions in 2030, with deep-sea projects accounting for 58.3% The bank expects China's new offshore wind installations in 2026-2030 to be 4/12/15/18/24 GW, with cumulative new additions of 73 GW, of which deep-sea projects account for 29 GW. The estimated equipment value per GW for the three core deep-sea equipment categoriessubmarine cables, pipe piles and wind turbinesis RMB5.9 billion. With the rapid expansion of the offshore wind market, by 2030 the market output value of these three equipment categories will increase from about RMB20 billion to RMB132.6 billion, with incremental industry profit exceeding RMB15 billion. Risk warnings: Offshore wind approval and construction progress falling short of expectations, slower advancement of deep-sea sea area use and transmission projects, intensifying industry competition, fluctuations in raw material prices, deviations in value measurement assumptions, and quality and safety risks in equipment and construction installation.