Anthropic (ANT.US) to launch IPO roadshow next week; US$1.5 trillion valuation may shrink to US$1 trillion! The AI capital feast faces a test.

Title context: Anthropic (ANT.US) to launch IPO roadshow next week; US$1.5 trillion valuation may shrink to US$1 trillion! The AI capital feast faces a test. Text: Artificial intelligence (AI) giant Anthropic (ANT.US) plans to launch its IPO roadshow in the week of November 9, expecting to raise up to US$100 billion at a potential valuation of about US$1.5 trillion. This mega-IPO, which has drawn intense market attention, comes just as AI-related assets are experiencing a large-scale selloff. A number of potential investors have begun to question whether Anthropic can sustain its previous valuation expectations, with some believing the company's valuation may need to be cut to around US$1 trillion. As the AI investment boom cools, Anthropic's IPO could also serve as an important bellwether for testing the market's capacity to absorb high-valuation AI companies. According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter, three large investors planning to participate in the IPO all believe that Anthropic's previously expected valuation may need to be lowered, with one investor saying the valuation could be closer to US$1 trillion. Investors had been eagerly anticipating Anthropic's listing for months, with many previously viewing it as a "must-own" in the AI sector and unwilling to miss the listing opportunity of this star AI company even as other AI-related stocks have recently weakened. However, market attitudes toward the AI investment boom have recently shifted, and some institutional investors have begun to reassess the risks facing highly valued AI assets. Some investors want to see Anthropic's latest results before deciding whether to accept a valuation adjustment. According to reports, as of the end of October, Anthropic's annualized revenue had surpassed US$80 billion, higher than the previous month. Annualized revenue is a metric that extrapolates full-year revenue based on recent revenue levels and does not represent the company's actual full-year revenue. In addition to valuation, the size of the fundraising may also be adjusted. One investor planning to participate in the IPO believes Anthropic may lower the fundraising size from up to US$100 billion to about US$80 billion. The investor also hopes the company will retain well over US$200 billion in capital after the IPO is completed to meet future massive computing power investment and infrastructure construction needs. Another potential investor is skeptical about whether Anthropic can proceed with the listing as originally planned, believing the company may choose to postpone the offering to wait for a more favorable market environment. Even if the market subsequently rebounds, it will not be easy to persuade institutional investors who have just suffered losses in the recent AI asset selloff to quickly re-assume large-scale AI investment risk. Anthropic executives and their advisers are expected to meet in the coming days to discuss the IPO plan. People familiar with the matter said the company has refrained from committing to specific offering arrangements so it can adjust flexibly according to market conditions. The significance of Anthropic's IPO goes far beyond the listing of a single AI company. Given its potential offering size and its close ties with tech giants such as Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), adjustments to the offering plan could have an impact on the broader capital markets. Investors in both the private and public markets are worried that changes in Anthropic's IPO valuation or fundraising size could have a chain reaction on related AI companies and their portfolios. From a broader market perspective, Anthropic's IPO could become an important event for testing the resilience of the AI investment boom. For some time, investors have mainly assigned high valuations to related companies based on AI computing power demand, technological progress and commercialization prospects; but as AI concept stocks have suffered a selloff, the market has begun to focus more on whether massive capital expenditure can be converted into sustained revenue and cash flow, and whether high valuations can be supported by fundamentals. Therefore, whether Anthropic can launch its IPO roadshow as scheduled next week, whether investors accept its valuation, and whether the final fundraising size is adjusted will all become focal points worth watching for the AI industry and the US stock market.