Citi: Cuts WYNN MACAU (01128) target price to HK$5.8, maintains "Buy" rating; dividend has downside risk

Citi issued a research report stating that it has cut the target price for WYNN MACAU (01128) from HK$6.5 to HK$5.8, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The bank lowered the company's earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 14% to reflect third-quarter results and the latest operating trends. Considering the upcoming capital expenditure budget and a relatively weak industry outlook, the bank believes there is downside risk to the company's 2027 dividend per share, but at current valuation it still offers an implied dividend yield of approximately 9%. WYNN MACAU's third-quarter property EBITDA was US$255 million, missing both market consensus and the bank's estimate by about 9%, mainly due to lower-than-expected gaming revenue in the third quarter. The bank noted that WYNN MACAU's third-quarter revenue fell 8% year-on-year to US$919 million, while adjusted property EBITDA fell 17% year-on-year to US$255 million. The company mitigated the quarter-on-quarter decline in EBITDA through strict control of operating expenses and player reinvestment. Management believes that the recent weakness in Macau gaming revenue cannot be attributed to any single factor, and does not consider a potential tightening of capital controls in China to be the main cause.