Wanlian Securities: Heavy-position ratio rebounds from bottom; food and beverage industry continues to diverge.

Wanlian Securities: Heavy-position ratio rebounds from bottom; food and beverage industry continues to diverge. Wanlian Securities released a research report stating that in 2026Q3, the fund heavy-position ratio in the food and beverage industry rebounded to 1.64% (up 0.32pcts QoQ), ending the previous continuous downward trend, but overall it remains significantly below the historical average of 6.34% since 2018, operating in a historically low range, with baijiu still the absolute main force in fund heavy positions in the food and beverage sector. From the performance in the first three quarters of 2026, the food and beverage industry showed divergence, with most liquor companies still facing declines in both revenue and profit, but the magnitude of single-quarter performance decline narrowed QoQ, and the price levels of leading companies' core products tended to stabilize, judging that channel destocking in the baijiu industry is nearing its end. Overall, the current valuation and fund holdings of the food and beverage sector are both at historically low levels. Once marginal improvement signals appear in fundamentals, the food and beverage industry is expected to usher in a rebound. It is recommended to focus on structural investment opportunities in segments with relatively clear expectations of operational improvement, including companies with relatively better performance in baijiu, dairy products, soft drinks, and leisure snacks. The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows: The heavy-position ratio in the food and beverage industry bottomed out and rebounded, still at a historically low level According to the 2026Q3 fund heavy-position holdings data (this article excludes Hong Kong stock targets), the fund heavy-position ratio in the food and beverage industry was 1.64%, up 0.32pcts QoQ, ending the previous continuous downward trend. Although the holding ratio showed signs of stabilizing and rebounding, it remains significantly below the historical average of 6.34% since 2018, operating in a historically low range. Among SW Level-1 industries, the ranking of the fund heavy-position ratio in the food and beverage industry was flat compared with the previous quarter, remaining in eighth place. The heavy-position ratio in the baijiu sector stabilized and rebounded, while trends in mass-market sub-sectors diverged After the baijiu sector experienced a five-and-a-half-year decline and bottomed out in 2026Q2, it showed signs of halting the decline and rebounding in 2026Q3, with the heavy-position ratio rebounding to 1.31%, +0.25pcts QoQ, accounting for 80.21% of the industry's internal heavy-position ratio, with its core dominant position still solid; trends among sub-categories in the mass-market segment diverged, among which beverages and dairy products continued their recovery momentum, with the heavy-position ratio +0.04pcts QoQ to 0.15%; condiment fermentation products and non-baijiu liquor stabilized and edged up, with heavy-position ratios respectively +0.01pcts QoQ to 0.07% and 0.05%; food processing and leisure foods were still bottoming out, with heavy-position ratios maintained at 0.05% and 0.02%, respectively. Baijiu remains the absolute core of heavily positioned individual stocks in the food and beverage sector, occupying 7 seats in the top 10 holding ratios In 2026Q3, the total heavy-position ratio of the top ten individual stocks by heavy-position ratio in the food and beverage sector was 1.45% (+0.29pcts QoQ), indicating a significant rebound in the holding concentration of sector leaders. Among them, baijiu stocks occupied 7 seats, with the total baijiu heavy-position ratio among the top 10 stocks at 1.28%. Among the top 5 stocks by QoQ increase in fund heavy-position ratio, baijiu occupied 4 seats, namely Kweichow Moutai, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (mass-market), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Anhui Gujing Distillery, and Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock; the top 5 stocks by decline in fund heavy-position ratio were Wuliangye Yibin, Shede Spirits, Tsingtao Brewery, Chongqing Brewery, and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development. Risk factors: risk of economic growth falling short of expectations; food safety risk; policy risk.