HK Stock Market Move | Gold mining stocks retreat across the board; World Bank cuts gold price forecast; Citi says gold price outlook highly dependent on Middle East situation

Gold mining stocks retreated across the board. As of press time, CHINAGOLDINTL (02099) fell 3.88% to HK$176.1; Zijin Mining Group (02899) fell 3.04% to HK$29.36; Shandong Gold Mining (01787) rose 0.60% to HK$18.31; Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) rose 0.06% to HK$32.78. On the news front, the World Bank's latest report shows that gold and silver prices are expected to remain at historic highs around 2027, but investors should not expect a repeat of the explosive rally and severe volatility seen in 2026. The bank expects gold to average US$4,600/oz this year, up 33.6% from 2025; it then expects a 7.6% pullback to US$4,250/oz in 2027, followed by a further 5.9% decline to US$4,000/oz in 2028. These projections are slightly lower than those made in April this year. Citi said the gold price outlook is highly dependent on the evolution of Middle East geopolitics. If Middle East tensions ease, gold could reach US$4,500 within three months and hit US$5,000 in 12 months; if the conflict drags on, it faces the risk of falling back to US$3,500. Resilient ETF holdings and central banks' gold reserves share hitting a 30-year high provide support, but once the US$12 trillion in paper gains triggers rebalancing selling, gold prices could see "Bitcoin-style" violent swings.