After the tech stock selloff, US stocks face another pivotal week: midterm elections, major earnings, and nonfarm payrolls take turns in the spotlight.
This week, market focus immediately shifts to the U.S. midterm elections, the October nonfarm payrolls report, and more earnings from heavyweight stocks.
After a series of disappointing earnings from major US tech companies triggered a sharp selloff in the technology sector, the market tends to view it as an "expectations correction" rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. This week, market focus shifts to the US midterm elections, the October nonfarm payrolls report, and more heavyweight earnings; meanwhile, after Binance suffered the largest crypto hack in history, trust repair and the regulatory direction of the crypto industry have also become new points of attention.
This week's schedule is packed. On Monday, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and Palantir (PLTR.US) report earnings, and chip companies Tower Semiconductor (TSEM.US) and Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC.US) will also release results. On Tuesday, focus turns to politics, with the US midterm elections expected to affect a range of issues from control of Congress and the Iran war to the data center construction boom; the same day, AMD (AMD.US) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US) report earnings, and the US government releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, the first important labor market data of the week.
On Wednesday and Thursday, heavyweight stocks including Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR (TM.US), ConocoPhillips (COP.US), Eaton Corp. Plc (ETN.US), Arm Holdings (ARM.US), McDonald's Corporation (MCD.US), and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) will report earnings, and the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement will also be closely watched, along with scattered economic data. On Friday, the October nonfarm payrolls report will be released, the most closely watched data of the week.
Tech selloff: an expectations correction, not a fundamentals correction
US tech stocks fell sharply last week after a series of earnings reports failed to deliver the strong signals investors had hoped for.
Alphabet (GOOG.US) missed on both revenue and profit, and its shares fell 13%. CEO Sundar Pichai said the company's search division grew, but as artificial intelligence erodes search monetization, revenue failed to keep pace with growth. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) missed on both earnings and revenue, and even strong AWS cloud growth failed to stem the selloff. Intel Corporation (INTC.US) beat on earnings and met on revenue, but weak PC sales overshadowed the good news, with the company attributing the weakness to rising memory costs; after the report, Intel Corporation shares fell more than 28%, wiping out about a quarter of its market value.
Yet the contradiction is this: the earnings data were not uniformly bad; the real problem is that market expectations had already risen higher. Barron's deputy editor Al Root said the numbers were not all bad news; rather, investors' demands have increased.
Looking at business data, Amazon.com, Inc.'s AWS division revenue was US$45.9 billion, up 40% year over year and clearly above expectations; Alphabet's cloud revenue was US$30.7 billion, above analysts' expectation of US$29.1 billion; Intel Corporation's data center and AI division revenue was US$7.318 billion, above the expected US$6.675 billion and up 78% year over year. SanDisk (SNDK.US) beat on both revenue and profit but still suffered a selloff.
Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney wrote in commenting on Amazon.com, Inc., "This is an expectations correction, not a fundamentals correction."
Binance hit by largest crypto hack in history, industry trust and regulation questioned again
The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, was hacked on Thursday evening last week. Investigators say this is the largest crypto hack in history, with affected digital assets reaching US$6.3 billion, and it may also be the largest theft ever.
After the incident, Binance said it had temporarily suspended customer withdrawals and would use its Secure Asset Fund for Users and company reserves to cover all losses. Binance said user funds were safe and suspended deposits and withdrawals while completing security checks. But that did not stop other major crypto assets from falling: Ethereum dropped 4% to about US$2,200; Binance Coin BNB fell more than 5%.
The question facing the crypto industry as a whole is how to respond next after a multi-billion-dollar theft at the largest exchange. Clear Street managing director Owen Lau said the industry must wake up, protect customer funds, and build good cybersecurity systems to boost confidence. Coinbase (COIN.US) CEO Brian Armstrong said on X that his platform had contacted Binance to offer assistance, that the team would do its best to provide support, and that industry cooperation is needed at this moment.
The crypto industry is pushing for legislation in Washington in hopes of bringing the regulatory framework closer to banking. After this attack, how the industry adjusts and wins trust has become a key question. Lau said a good regulatory framework is needed to truly protect the industry and give investors confidence, and that no such framework exists yet.
A key week in Washington: midterms, data centers, and California's wealth tax
Washington has a packed schedule this week. A total of 470 elections will be held nationwide, including all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly nonfarm payrolls report will also be released, a key test of the labor market.
Some argue that the jobs report is affected by the midterm elections on multiple levels. The cost of living and the trajectory of artificial intelligence development are the main issues in this campaign and will influence the direction of labor market changes in the coming years. Investors are particularly focused on key elections that could determine the direction of data center development pipelines in various states, including the Ohio Senate race, where Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown faces Republican Jon Husted; and the Texas governor's race, where incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
California also deserves close attention. Voters will decide the fate of Proposition 40, which proposes a wealth tax on billionaires. Meta (META.US) issued new shares for this purpose to prevent CEO Mark Zuckerberg's voting power from being diluted if he sells shares to pay the tax.
However, strategists caution that companies make decisions with longer-term considerations in mind, not just one election cycle.
Seth Meyer, head of global client portfolio management at JanusHenderson Investors, wrote: "Today, hyperscale data center operators' massive investments in AI infrastructure are aimed at achieving profitable growth over the next decade or even longer. When making capital allocations over such a long horizon, management teams will factor in potential changes in the macroeconomic cycle and regulatory environment."
Friday's nonfarm payrolls in focus, labor market strength to sway the Fed
Economists expect the October nonfarm payrolls report released this Friday to show 55,000 new jobs. Last month's report showed only 29,000 new jobs, far below expectations. Breaking it down, all new jobs are expected to come from the private sector; despite the ongoing data center construction boom, manufacturing is expected to show zero growth.
Labor market strength is one of the key arguments for the Fed's September rate hike and a possible further hike in December. Any signs of weakness could complicate that outlook.
In addition, the Bank of England will announce its rate decision on November 5, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point hike to 4.0%; the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision on November 3, with a fifth hike this year expected. The global rate environment remains uncertain, and the policy pace of these two central banks will affect cross exchange rates and global rate trends.
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