Is an oversold rebound about to be triggered at any time? The top ten brokerages' strategies are here.

Title context: Is an oversold rebound about to be triggered at any time? The top ten brokerages' strategies are here. Text: This week, the A-share market experienced volatile adjustments, with major broad-based indices pulling back. The All-A Index fell 5.85%. The STAR 50, ChiNext Index, and BSE 50 led the pullback, all falling more than 10%, while the SSE 50 was relatively resilient. By sector, banks, petroleum and petrochemicals, and food and beverage were among the top gainers, while telecommunications, electronics, and computers were among the top decliners. How will the market play out going forward? Here is a summary of the latest strategies from the top ten brokerages. CITIC SEC: Actively adjust structure, four allocation approaches We propose four allocation approaches to cope with the current market. First, a steady-return strategy, centered on industries with high dividend yields or potential for supply clearing, focusing on supply changes at a stage when demand signals are chaotic. Second, an expectation-driven strategy, similar to "airlines and hotels in 2022," identifying sectors where the market is uniformly bearish on fundamentals and positioning is extremely low, realizing gains only at the point of eventual policy changes, and engaging only in valuation-repair trades. Third, an overseas interest rate decline strategy, taking the correction of North American AI investment and financing expectations and the corresponding decline in overseas long-end rates as the macro premise, and after the market revises EPS expectations, watching whether non-AI manufacturing going global and resource stocks can emerge from short-term demand suppression. Fourth, a strategy combining sector heat with clearing, similar to finding "household energy storage and inverters in 2022," using the unexpected surge in demand from new areas as the timing to bottom-fish technology, seeking areas where institutions and active capital can resonate, rather than simply betting on "inorganic." We believe all four strategies have the potential to generate relative returns and are suitable for capital with different return-risk preferences; the market's funding-side pressure determines which strategy is temporarily dominant. China Securities Co.,Ltd.: The key to subsequent bottom confirmation lies in whether multiple signals can gradually appear; remain patient and wait for long opportunities China Securities Co.,Ltd. believes that the market has recently remained in the second round of deleveraging since late September. This week, A-shares shifted from a previous unilateral decline to high-volatility fluctuations. Current market pressure mainly comes from three aspects: first, repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions keeping oil prices high, coupled with local debt risks in economies such as France and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, leaving overseas liquidity tight; second, mixed overseas third-quarter earnings; third, domestic liquidity pressure has not yet been fully digested, and concerns about absolute-return funds reducing positions remain. A positive signal is that since October, market-stabilizing funds have gradually entered. The key to subsequent bottom confirmation lies in incremental market-stabilizing funds, as well as whether signals such as stabilization of margin funds, continued ETF absorption, and previously leading decliners no longer hitting new lows on negative news can gradually appear. Historical experience shows that mid-term bottoms are often formed through a tortuous process. Stay patient and wait for long opportunities. In terms of allocation, we recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for bottom-fishing opportunities, with dividend assets such as banks, coal, utilities, and Hong Kong dividend stocks as the core base position; for the offensive direction, focus on rotation in growth themes such as physical AI and commercial aerospace, and follow the rhythm of market-stabilizing funds, with key attention to areas where ETF volumes increase significantly. CICC: A-share valuations already at historical mid-to-low levels; stabilizing the market requires policy offsets to external disturbances Li Qiusuo, chief domestic strategist at CICC Research Department, said that the recent A-share valuation adjustment was mainly affected by multiple external imported risks, primarily disturbances in funding and sentiment, and the current valuation contraction is clearly out of line with fundamental trends. From the perspective of stabilizing the market, turning "cheap" into actual allocation behavior requires rapid improvement and reversal of investor expectations, and strengthened policy responses to stabilize growth, the market, and expectations. Shenwan Hongyuan Group: An oversold rebound may be triggered at any time, while an important medium- to long-term low may appear around the turn of the year This week, the market's rebound attempt was again interrupted by industry shocks, but after the adjustment continued, the conditions for an oversold rebound improved further: the timetable for long-term cost-effectiveness clearing is closer, and short-term cost-effectiveness indicators more broadly point to high cost-effectiveness. Various types of funds further reduced positions, and the conditions for rebuilding a balance between fund supply and demand also improved. We maintain our judgment that an oversold rebound may be triggered at any time, while an important medium- to long-term low may appear around the turn of the year. China Galaxy: Short-term valuation cost-effectiveness repair, watch the oversold rebound window After the index experienced a deep adjustment earlier, short-term valuation cost-effectiveness is being repaired. Watch the oversold rebound window, and the pace of style rebalancing deserves close tracking. Allocation opportunities: Focus on the "barbell" strategy, balancing between elastic assets and defensive base positions: the offensive end of the "barbell" is the repair elasticity of growth sectors after earlier oversold conditions; the defensive end uses dividend assets to build the portfolio base, with medium- to long-term allocation in sectors such as financials, utilities, and coal; policy continues to promote the accelerated implementation of major projects and the formation of physical, with attention to links such as power grids, energy storage/power supporting facilities, building materials, and construction machinery. Founder: Risk appetite is expected to gradually improve, and the market will shift from defense to offense We believe that after entering November, negative factors will gradually ease, risk appetite is expected to gradually improve, and the market will shift from defense to offense. Allocation strategy recommendations: For market stabilization, look to technology; for trend formation, look to domestic demand; over the medium term, focus on three allocation opportunities. First, the oversold rebound in technology growth, with attention to the STAR Market and ChiNext and hard tech that fell sharply earlier, as well as Siasun Robot&Automation, defense, AI applications, and pharmaceuticals within technology growth that have industry catalysts; second, value the allocation of domestic demand and pro-cyclical sectors, including the real estate and infrastructure chain and some consumer goods; third, non-bank financials, which respond most directly to monetary policy changes, have low valuations, and can stabilize the index. Changjiang: Short-term price sentiment may have reached a historically extreme zone, and volume is also gradually approaching the bottom zone The recent sustained market adjustment mainly stems from high global macro interest rates raising the equity discount rate and dragging down valuation levels, as well as forward-looking concerns about the AI supply chain, namely the potential slowdown in U.S. AI capital expenditure growth and the uneven distribution of hardware-side profits among countries. The relative performance of technology and dividend stocks has diverged significantly. The core conclusion is that short-term price sentiment may have reached a historically extreme zone, and volume is also gradually approaching the bottom zone, providing a basis for an oversold rebound. However, indicators such as leveraged funds, institutional positioning, and industry crowding show that more time is needed for clearing, and patience is required to wait for reversal signals. In terms of allocation, maintain the barbell strategy and continue to focus on dividends, free cash flow, small and micro caps, and thematic directions (physical AI, commercial aerospace, Middle East geopolitical friction, etc.). Kaiyuan Securities: Continue rebalancing allocation, strengthen focus on domestic demand, technology waits for a second ignition The current market is in a "post-crowding era," where the old narrative has not broken and the new narrative has not been established. Allocation should continue to emphasize four directions: (1) Dividends: since July, we have continued to emphasize their rebalancing value; the negative feedback from funds has not yet ended, and they still have allocation value in the fourth quarter; (2) Small and micro caps: the trading structure advantage has not completely disappeared, but changes in risk appetite and liquidity need attention; (3) Domestic demand consumption: the previously mentioned policy window for domestic demand is gradually approaching, and the slowdown in the profit slope increases the necessity of policy support; combined with the low valuation and low expectations of the consumer sector, attention should be paid to potential expectation gaps; (4) Technology: the long-term industry narrative has not broken, but in the short term there is a lack of new positive strong logic; continue to focus on directions where G and G resonate, and wait for new industry catalysts and right-side confirmation from funds. Huajin Securities: Continue in November, balanced allocation At present, A-shares may continue to in November. (1) November policies and external events may be relatively positive. First, November policies may still be relatively positive. Second, external risks in November may still be limited: first, after the U.S. midterm elections, the U.S.-Iran conflict may further escalate; second, China-U.S. relations may remain stable in November. (2) November economic and earnings data may recover. First, the November economy may continue to recover somewhat from a low level: first, real estate investment may remain weak in November, while the growth rate of manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment may stabilize and recover somewhat; second, November exports may continue to maintain a relatively high year-on-year growth rate; finally, November consumption growth may continue to stabilize and recover somewhat. Second, corporate earnings may continue to be in an upward trend in November. (3) November liquidity may remain accommodative. First, macro liquidity may remain accommodative in November: first, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to raise rates continuously in the short term; second, the domestic central bank may continue to increase fund injection in November. Second, stock market fund inflows may improve marginally in November. November industry allocation: recommend balanced allocation in oversold technology, low-valuation blue chips such as CKH HOLDINGS, and other sectors. Huaan: Still can look forward to a year-end rally, take advantage of low levels to position in industry mainlines Disturbances such as the FOMC meeting and institutional holdings have landed, and third-quarter earnings disturbances are basically over. Although U.S.-Iran disturbances remain uncertain, the market has already oversold. Considering that from November, the year-end ranking sprint by institutions and expectations of a pre-Chinese New Year rally will help build market consensus, it is not appropriate to be habitually pessimistic at this point, and a year-end rebound may be coming. This year-end rebound corresponds exactly to the accelerated upward phase at the end of the second stage of the growth industry prosperity cycle investment framework. According to historical patterns, a neutral expectation can be set as a market lasting about one month, with growth style up about 15%, mainline industries up about 20%, and industry mainlines leading. Therefore, the preferred allocation is the upstream and midstream hardware direction of AI. This article is reprinted from "Cailian Press," GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.