China Index Academy: In January-October, total sales of China's top 100 real estate developers reached RMB2.537 trillion, with the year-on-year decline narrowing.

China Index Academy: In January-October 2026, the total sales of 100 real estate developers reached RMB2.53706 trillion, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from January-September, as three factors jointly drove marginal improvement in sales: policy support through mortgage interest subsidies, concentrated project launches and promotions on the supply side, and the low base from the prior year. However, industry divergence continues to intensify, with the number of developers achieving RMB100 billion and RMB10 billion in sales narrowing to 6 and 58, respectively. The industry's competitive logic has shifted from competing on sales scale to a comprehensive contest of cash flow, product strength, and delivery certainty, and industry reshuffling continues. High-quality projects in core cities achieved hot sales amid a confluence of factors including intensive policy support, scarce locations, and product upgrades. Looking ahead to year-end, as the National Development and Reform Commission explicitly ensures the implementation of incremental policies such as mortgage interest subsidies for home purchases, combined with developers' year-end promotional push and the low base effect, the new home market in core cities may see some support, and the decline in developer sales is expected to narrow further, though divergence among enterprises will continue to intensify. Performance: In January-October, the sales decline of 100 developers narrowed by 0.9 percentage points from January-September In January-October 2026, the total sales of 100 developers were RMB2.53706 trillion, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from January-September. This was mainly affected by the following factors: First, policy supportthe September 29 mortgage interest subsidy and other policies effectively boosted homebuying confidence and lowered the threshold for first-time buyers; second, supply-side coordinationdevelopers seized the window to concentrate project launches and promotions, and the entry of high-quality projects accelerated the conversion of (wait-and-see) customers; third, the impact of the low base from the prior year. However, sales performance among enterprises remains divergent. Some developers, relying on sound funding, reliable delivery credit, and combined with quality land reserve layouts in core cities and continuous product refinement, are more likely to win homebuyer favor in an environment of weak market confidence, thereby achieving year-on-year sales growth. In January-October 2026, the managed sales of 100 developers were RMB2.00163 trillion, and attributable sales were RMB1.74771 trillion. Tier counts: Industry competitive logic shifts from competing on sales scale to a comprehensive contest of cash flow, product strength, and delivery certainty; industry reshuffling continues In January-October 2026, there were 6 developers with sales of RMB100 billion or more, one fewer than the same period last year; and 58 developers with sales of RMB10 billion or more, four fewer than the same period last year. From the changes in developer sales tiers from 2023 to January-October 2026, the number of RMB100 billion and RMB10 billion developers continued the downward trend. The number of RMB100 billion developers fell to 7 in 2024 and further narrowed to 6, while the RMB10 billion developer tier continued to decline from 100 in 2023 to 58. The contraction of tier sizes continued across both RMB100 billion and RMB10 billion developers. Market resources are further concentrating in a small number of enterprises with sound operations and outstanding delivery capabilities. The industry's competitive logic has shifted from competing on sales scale to a comprehensive contest of cash flow, product strength, and delivery certainty, and the industry continues to screen scale developers. Hot-selling projects: A confluence of intensive policy support, scarce locations, and product upgrades drove hot sales of quality projects in some core cities In October 2026, hot-selling projects in core cities were driven by a confluence of intensive policy support, scarce locations, and product upgrades. First, a policy package continued to inject "certainty" into the market. Core cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu concentratedly rolled out new property market policies at the end of August, mortgage interest subsidy policies were implemented, and local detailed rules for existing-home sales were (intensively implemented). Multi-dimensional policies lowered homebuying thresholds and strengthened delivery certainty, prompting demand to concentrate in core locations and quality products. Second, scarce locations and supply-demand gaps formed the soil for demand explosions. The total supply of high-quality new homes for upgraders in core mature areas is limited, and pent-up housing demand laid the market foundation for hot-selling projects. Third, product strength achieved a generational leap, becoming the key to differentiation. Most projects used "full-area raised slabs" to reconstruct three-dimensional community spaces, and leveraged new regulation dividends to increase actual usable area ratios, combined with customer co-created floor plans, sunken courtyards, three-dimensional landscaping, and high-spec clubs to form differentiated selling points. Fourth, actual scene delivery and pre-operations became new selling points, turning "certainty" into tangible living. Finally, precise total-price matching strategies created high value-for-money products. Some projects entered the current demand segment of their districts with appropriately priced products, combined with supporting advantages in transportation, industry, commerce, and ecology, ultimately achieving high subscription rates. The National Development and Reform Commission explicitly ensures the implementation of incremental policies such as mortgage interest subsidies for home purchases; the new home market in core cities may see some support, and developers' year-end performance push may promote marginal improvement in sales On the policy front, at the central level, on October 8, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the first batch of typical cases of real estate registration services supporting the revitalization of existing stock and urban renewal, promoting six practices including "listing with existing conditions"; on October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission press conference explicitly ensured the implementation and effectiveness of incremental policies such as lowering the pledged supplementary lending rate, increasing re-lending quotas, and mortgage interest subsidies for home purchases; on the same day, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and five other departments issued the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Renovation and Upgrading of Old Blocks and Factory Areas, implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal and orderly implementing 1,500 major renovation and upgrading projects; on October 23, the Ministry of Finance stated that mortgage interest subsidies had been implemented smoothly with initial results, with "no application required" and monthly deductions; on October 23, the State Council executive meeting studied the coordination of population and economic and social development, requiring optimization of fiscal, tax, social security, housing, and other support measures for families to stabilize the scale of new births. At the local level, the reform of the commercial housing sales system entered a period of intensive implementation of detailed rules, with Wuhan, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Suzhou, Hefei, Chengdu, and other cities successively issuing implementation opinions. Meanwhile, housing provident fund policies were intensively implemented, with Shenzhen, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Dongguan, and other places adding withdrawals for decoration and property fees, and Hangzhou raising the upward adjustment ratio of loan quotas for multi-child families from 50% to 60%, with the maximum loan quota raised to RMB3.24 million. In addition, in October, Anhui, Hubei, and other provinces and cities issued approximately RMB23 billion in special bonds to recover and acquire idle existing land. In the new home and second-hand home markets, since October, second-hand home transactions have remained active, while the new home market is still in an adjustment period. The second-hand home markets in Beijing, Shanghai, and some second-tier cities continued to show relatively high activity. Quality projects in core areas of some cities sold well, but most cities still saw year-on-year declines. In the land market, affected by the surge in residential land supply in September, the planned construction area and land transfer fees of residential land transactions in 300 cities in October both increased significantly year-on-year, but the average premium rate was only 1.4%, and land market heat remains at a low level. From the perspective of city tier, transactions were mainly concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities. Looking ahead to year-end, with developers' year-end promotions and the entry of quality projects, the new home market in core cities may see some support, but the overall bottoming-out trend continues. Second-hand home transactions are also expected to maintain some activity, with prices expected to remain in narrow fluctuations. On developer sales, at year-end, developers may increase promotions and project launches to sprint for performance. Destocking of quality projects in core cities is expected to improve marginally, and combined with the low base effect from the prior year, this may drive a narrowing of the decline in developer sales, while divergence in sales performance among enterprises will continue to intensify.