Cui Dongshu: 54.6% share! Chinese independent brands deepen their presence in the Russian auto market; wolf-pack tactics accelerate a localized breakthrough.

Cui Dongshu: 54.6% share! Chinese independent brands deepen their presence in the Russian auto market; wolf-pack tactics accelerate a localized breakthrough. In September 2026, Russian auto sales reached 134,000 units, down 1% year-on-year. From January to September, Russian auto sales reached a relatively high level of 1.06 million units, up 5% year-on-year. In September 2026, China exported 113,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 71,300 vehicles in Russia, with local sales at 63% of China's exports. From January to September, China exported 750,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 576,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales at 77% of China's exports, overall relatively balanced. In 2026, Chinese independent brands' share in Russia reached a relatively high level of 54.6%, with good sales and profitability. In 2026, a large number of models from international automakers entered, with German and Japanese brands performing strongly, while Korean brands' advantage weakened. The Russian market is the profit source of our independent rise. The high profits brought by the independent rise in the Russian market have driven the global surge of Chinese independent brands. "More children make for better fighting" is the experience we have explored over many years. Relying on strong technological upgrading and industrial chain advantages, Chinese independent automakers have shown relatively strong characteristics in Russia. Chery maintained a monthly average sales level of 20,000 vehicles in 2026, ranking first among Chinese automakers in Russian sales. Facing Russia's complex environment, the strategic significance of independent brands' "more children make for better fighting" is enormous. Independent brands' official vehicle exports, parallel exports, circuitous exports, localized plant construction, joint venture assembly and various other models have all been deployed, with large numbers of brands fighting as a wolf pack, achieving very good results. Chinese independent new energy vehicle sales have performed well overall in the Russian auto market, especially high-end models such as extended-range plug-in hybrids, achieving a good performance in replacing European and American luxury cars. Among new energy vehicles, brands such as Li Auto, Zeekr, and Voyah have performed relatively prominently, showing relatively extremely strong characteristics. Brands such as AITO, BYD Company Limited, and Xiaomi also have certain sales performance. Chinese automakers are accelerating localized production and supply chain restructuring in Russia, with multiple measures improving the situation. First, in response to the tiered increase in Russian import tariffs, deepen the KD assembly model and establish regional production bases. Avoid tariffs and shorten delivery cycles through localized production. Build regional parts center warehouses, raise the localization rate of core components to over 60%, and reduce supply chain risks. Second, do a good job in product upgrading, technical adaptation, and special R&D for extreme cold environments. In response to Russia's extreme cold climate of minus 50C and complex road conditions, strengthen low-temperature battery management systems, all-terrain chassis tuning, and anti-corrosion processes, reducing the failure rate through anti-corrosion processes. Third, do a good job in upgrading the full-channel after-sales service system. In response to the lagging maintenance response in Russia's remote areas, build a three-level network of "central warehouse + mobile service vehicles + authorized repair points," raising service coverage to over 90%. Fourth, reshape brand value and conduct precision marketing. Establish a high-end image through technical endorsement and scenario-based marketing, while developing a Eurasian cross-border e-commerce platform, providing online configuration + offline vehicle pickup services, and using the RMB settlement system to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. I. Overall trend of the Russian market 1. Monthly trend of the Russian auto market Russian auto market sales show severe fluctuations, with dramatic ups and downs in recent years. In 2021, the monthly trend of the Russian auto market was relatively stable. In 2022, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, monthly sales reached a low level of less than about 30,000 units. With strong support from Chinese independent automakers, the Russian auto market recovered to a level of about 100,000 units per month in 2023. In 2024, the Russian auto market recovered to a scale of about 150,000 units. In the first half of 2025, the Russian auto market declined greatly, and gradually warmed up in the second half. In January-February 2026, the opening sales trend was stable, then gradually strengthened, and September sales of 134,000 units were flat with the same period in 2025. 2. Russian auto market policy tracking In 2026, Russia's auto policy core focuses on four major adjustments: tariffs, localization, certification, and registration, using a "carrot and stick" combination to strongly force automakers to carry out deep localized production. On the "stick" side, Russia will raise the VAT rate to 22% starting January 1, 2026; at the same time, the new recycling fee regulations and the "full compensation" customs clearance formula for Central Asian transit will also be fully implemented in early 2026, and the recycling fee for commercial imported vehicles has risen to about 800,000 to 900,000 rubles. In addition, the "Taxi Localization Act" officially effective on March 1, 2026, uses a strict "3,200 points" localization score as the access red line, further squeezing the survival space of purely imported vehicles. The new taxi regulations took effect on March 1. Operating vehicles are mandatorily required to be produced in Russia with a localization score of no less than 3,200 points; foreign-brand complete vehicles are prohibited from access, and remote areas have a transition period for delayed implementation. The vehicle registration process is simplified, paper verification of compulsory traffic insurance is canceled, and system networked verification is adopted. Vehicle transfers can be deregistered immediately, driving test items are streamlined, and online theoretical teaching is promoted. On the "carrot" side, the above scoring system allows automakers that truly establish local manufacturing systems to enjoy huge subsidies such as recycling fee reductions, directly spawning a "rebadged production" boom. Many Chinese automakers, through technology output, use idle Russian factories for assembly in exchange for local identity. As Russian president signed a decree in May 2026 extending the special investment contract of the Great Wall Motor factory to the end of 2033, further releasing a signal encouraging long-term rooting. The Russian auto market has completely ended the era of "complete vehicle exports winning effortlessly," and "technology output + local assembly" has become the only way out for all brands to survive. 3. Annual trend of the Russian auto market Russia is a long-established world superpower. With the surge in oil prices before 2008, Russian auto sales reached a scale of nearly 3 million units; after the 2014 Crimea crisis, annual sales fell from the previous 2.5 million level to the 1.5 million level; and after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, annual sales in 2022 bottomed out at 687,000 units that year; in 2023, Russian auto sales rebounded to 960,000 units. With the guaranteed supply of Chinese cars, Russia's overall auto sales in 2024 reached 1.83 million units, up 91% year-on-year, setting a recent annual sales high. In 2025, cumulative sales in the Russian auto market were 1.49 million units, down 19% year-on-year. In September 2026, Russian auto sales reached 134,000 units, down 1% year-on-year. From January to September, Russian auto sales reached a relatively high level of 1.06 million units, up 5% year-on-year. 4. Export and local sales trends of independent brands in the Russian auto market In 2021, Chinese automakers had only 157,000 sales in Russia, and by 2024 it was 1.28 million, an increase of 1.12 million. Chinese automakers' strong exports are closely related to the gap opportunity in the Russian market. In 2025, China exported 583,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 850,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales at 146% of China's exports, finally achieving a trend of significant destocking. In September 2026, China exported 113,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 71,300 vehicles in Russia, with local sales at 63% of China's exports. From January to September, China exported 750,000 vehicles to Russia, and independent brands sold 576,000 vehicles in Russia, with local sales at 77% of China's exports, overall relatively balanced. II. Russian market structure 1. Russian market share trend Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian auto market was long occupied by foreign capital, with a relatively dispersed landscape. The main competitors in the Russian auto market were European automakers, while Korean cars performed relatively stronger than Japanese cars. Chinese independent automakers performed relatively weakly, with a share of less than 10%. But after 2022, many foreign automakers temporarily withdrew, agreeing to sell their shares to the Russian side, so these joint venture and foreign automakers turned into the concept of Russian local automakers, and therefore the share of Russian local automakers rapidly rose to about 40% in 2023. At the same time, independent automakers seized the opportunity and quickly filled the high-end blank market vacated by European and American automakers, reaching a high of 58.3% in 2024. In 2026, Chinese independent brands' share in Russia reached a relatively high level of 54.6%, with good sales and profitability. In 2026, a large number of models from international automakers entered, with German and Japanese brands performing strongly, while Korean brands' advantage weakened. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to sanctions and material shortages, international automakers successively withdrew from the Russian market. Chinese automakers had already gradually risen in the Russian market in early 2021, but their share was around 5%; in 2023, Chinese independent automakers seized the characteristics of relatively strong domestic demand and insufficient supply in Russia, achieving a breakthrough of 50% share; in 2024, independent brands' monthly share in Russia in the second half of the year broke through 60%, achieving strong growth performance of Chinese automakers; in 2025, the share of Chinese independent automakers in Russia rebounded to 57%, but due to complex certification management, Chinese heavy trucks plummeted significantly. With the gradual return of international brands, in January-September 2026, independent automakers' share in Russia fell back to 54%, and in September independent automakers' share in Russia dropped to 53%, at a relatively low level in 2026. 2. Analysis of Russia's new energy demand structure New energy sales in the Russian auto market are relatively low. Because European, American, Japanese, and Korean automakers' new energy vehicles are relatively poor, Russia had very few new energy vehicles before 2023. But with the entry of Chinese automakers, new energy became favored by Russian wealthy consumers, with pure electric performance excellent. Subsequently, models such as Li Auto sold well in Russia, bringing the Russian characteristic of plug-in hybrid sales higher than pure electric since 2025. In 2026, the Russian market improved, and by September new energy had shown a stable recovery. III. Russian brand structure trend 1. Russian trend of main brands in 2026 Russian auto imports currently have three methods: natural person imports, legal person batch imports, and legal person parallel imports. Parallel import policy adjustments favor Chinese automakers' official exports, and recycling fee policy adjustments close the low-tariff gray channel of neighboring countries. Regarding recycling fees, Russia stipulated this year that for cars imported from Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, the saved tariff costs must be paid as a "recycling fee" in Russia, closing the low-tariff gray channel of neighboring countries. Parallel import or personal import paths are also gradually tightening. Since the end of 2025, models with power exceeding 160 horsepower no longer apply the low rate for personal imports (originally about 3,400 rubles), but must pay the full commercial tax rate, which can reach 750,000 to over 1 million rubles. The "power-linked" algorithm introduced in 2026, as well as the "full compensation" customs clearance formula for Central Asian transit (such as Kyrgyzstan), have further compressed the space for gray trade channels. Chinese cars sold in Russia are suitable for legal person batch imports. Russia prohibits Chinese cars from using the legal person parallel import channel, which in fact avoids low-price competition from unauthorized dealers and is conducive to Chinese automakers' official export sales. Recently, Li Auto began an official dealership model in Russia. Esteo and JELAND are both results of Chery's Russian localization strategy. They are Russian local auto brands created by Russia's AGR Group in cooperation with the Chinese side, essentially Chery Jaecoo (Jetour Traveler series) and Omoda rebadged + Russian localized CKD assembly, produced at the former GM plant in St. Petersburg and the former Volkswagen plant in Kaluga, officially launched and sold in Russia in 2026. International automaker brands' sales in Russia overall still maintain a relatively high state, with Japanese and Korean brands performing relatively strongly, especially Mazda, Hyundai-Kia, and Toyota performing relatively strongly. BMW and Mercedes-Benz's monthly average sales performance in 2026 is relatively good, and other international automakers also have certain sales with distinctive demand. 2. Russian trend of independent brands Due to weak technology and product strength, Russian local cars are mainly concentrated in the low-end market with lower price segments. The earlier sales champion in the Russian auto market was Lada, which sold well mainly because of its cheap price, policy protection, and conformity with Russians' vehicle needs. "More children make for better fighting" is the experience we have explored over many years. Relying on strong technological upgrading and industrial chain advantages, Chinese independent automakers have shown relatively strong characteristics in Russia. Chery maintained a monthly average sales level of 20,000 vehicles in 2026, especially with Chery achieving a good development trend of comprehensive development through localized production, rebadged contract manufacturing, and imported vehicle combinations with multiple brands in Russia, also achieving the characteristic trend of joint development of "more children make for better fighting." Geely's performance in Russia also achieved super-strong growth, with both locally contracted production products and imported models performing relatively strongly, especially products such as Zeekr performing extremely excellently. Other Chinese automakers are also strong, and products such as BAIC also perform relatively strongly in Russia. 3. Overall good performance of Russia's new energy vehicles Chinese auto brands occupy the mid-to-high-end market in Russia. Chinese automakers have significant advantages in technology and products. Combined with factors such as tariffs, transportation costs, and dealer shares, Chinese brand models are priced higher in Russia than domestically. Recently, Russia included China-made high-end fuel vehicles and electric vehicles in the luxury car taxation list, covering models priced above 10 million rubles. Chinese independent new energy vehicle sales have performed well overall in the Russian auto market, especially high-end models such as extended-range and narrow-sense plug-in hybrids, achieving a good performance in replacing European and American luxury cars. Among new energy vehicles, brands such as Li Auto, Zeekr, and Voyah have performed relatively prominently, showing relatively extremely strong characteristics. Brands such as AITO, BYD Company Limited, and Xiaomi also have certain sales performance. And the latest products such as Xiaomi and AITO's high-end models with the strongest intelligent connectivity also perform well. 4. Russian and European/American brands gradually recovering Registration data for overseas brands in Russia from January to September 2026 show that European and American brands are recovering, but the main force is actually a surge in imported Japanese and Korean models. Nissan and Mazda cumulative growth rates reached 640% and 516% respectively, and Honda, Suzuki, and Audi also achieved large growth of over 200%, with sources mostly being vehicles produced in Chinese factories and imported through parallel channels; luxury brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz only mildly recovered. JELAND of Russia's AGR Group, relying on Chery's technology platform for rebadged localized production, is precisely a typical practice of Chinese automakers' "more children make for better fighting" overseas expansion thinking. Solaris (formerly Hyundai platform) under the same group continues to face sales pressure, forming complementary competition within the product echelon. Parallel imports fluctuate strongly due to supply and customs clearance, such as Skoda's September sales plunging 88%; having a base in China is very important. This article is reproduced from "Cui Dongshu", GMTEight editor: Zheng Yuyang