Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are mixed, tech stocks are broadly lower in premarket trading, and Intel's stock plunges after earnings.

Premarket Market Moves 1. On Friday, October 30, ahead of the U.S. market open, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.09%, S&P 500 futures were down 1.05%, and Nasdaq futures were down 2.53%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was down 0.65%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.18%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 0.93%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude was up 2.05% at $104.09/barrel. Brent crude was up 2.22% at $113.26/barrel. Market News AI trade cools sharply, safe-haven bids flood into U.S. Treasuries! The "global asset pricing anchor" is on track for its first monthly decline in eight months. As AI computing and semiconductor stocks came under selling pressure, U.S. Treasuries regained their portfolio safe-haven value. During Asian trading hours on October 30, U.S. Treasuries extended gains, with the 10-year yield briefly falling to about 4.90%. The U.S. benchmark Treasury yield has fallen nearly 40 basis points cumulatively in October and is on track for its first monthly decline since February this year; meanwhile, the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Return Index has risen about 2% this month and is on track for its best monthly performance since February 2025. The former measures yield changes, while the latter measures bond investment returns; together, the two sets of data point to the same conclusionU.S. Treasuries are absorbing strong safe-haven demand brought about by the decline in risk appetite for tech stocks. Bank of America maintains hawkish Fed expectations after misjudging the October rate decision: two more hikes by March next year. Bank of America Corp believes that the future inflation path may still force the Fed to act further, and that the Fed will raise rates twice more in the coming months, pushing the target range for the federal funds rate up to 4.25% to 4.5% by March 2027. This forecast was adjusted after the Fed's October meeting decided to pause rate hikes, and it also keeps the bank among the more hawkish institutions on Wall Street regarding the monetary policy outlook. Bank of America Corp economists now expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, and then keep rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range until the end of 2027. Previously, the bank had expected the Fed to raise rates at the October meeting. Bank of America Corp also believes that the Fed statement signaled a desire to adjust policy at a more gradual pace, because policymakers remain uncertain about how restrictive the current rate level is for the economy. The bank also warned that if Warsh is neither willing to provide policy guidance nor surprise the market through actual actions, his influence may gradually weaken. Does Warsh's rate hike pause leave a "mess"? The market turns its attention to the Treasury Department's quarterly financing plan next week. The U.S. Treasury Department's quarterly financing plan to be released next week is drawing intense market attention. Investors expect the Treasury to adjust the structure of Treasury issuance to provide some buffer for the Fed's decision to pause rate hikes in October, especially against the backdrop of still-high inflation and strong U.S. economic growth. Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, and his team expect the Treasury may signal next week that it will reduce the auction sizes of 10-year and 30-year Treasuries next year. At the same time, the Treasury may increase issuance of 2-year to 10-year Treasuries to ease pressure from rising long-term bond yields. If the Treasury adjusts the issuance structure by reducing long-term Treasuries and increasing the supply of medium- and short-term Treasuries, the practical effect would be to ease supply pressure in the long-term bond market and thereby push down long-term Treasury yields. Lower long-term yields would help reduce mortgage costs, contain corporate financing expenses, and at the same time lighten the interest burden borne by the U.S. government to cover its fiscal deficit. Tech stocks endure a brutal October, and hedge fund shorting is becoming a risk amplifier! Bigger volatility lurks in the AI trade. Tech stocks fell 8% in October, yet hedge funds did not fully exit the AI trade; instead, they adjusted their risk-hedging strategies. Strategist Simon White noted that funds are reducing short positions in individual stocks and instead shorting the Nasdaq index through index instruments such as QQQ. This change may appear to be merely a trading strategy adjustment, but it could alter the entire market's volatility mechanism. Previously, low correlation among individual stocks helped suppress the VIX, and even as tech companies kept borrowing to finance massive AI capital expenditures, overall market volatility remained relatively moderate. Now, index-level hedging is increasing, and the likelihood of stocks moving in sync is also rising. Crowded trades, leverage, and correlation are all rising at the same time, which may cause risks previously masked by the low-volatility environment to be exposed all at once. ANZ raises oil price forecast to $105, saying even a Middle East ceasefire cannot stop oil from rising. ANZ on Friday raised its Brent crude price forecast, arguing that the eight-month Iran war has significantly weakened the global oil market's ability to cope with supply shocks. Even if the Middle East situation does not escalate further, transport restrictions, refining bottlenecks, and falling inventories may still keep supply tight. ANZ raised its Brent crude price forecast for the end of this year to $105 per barrel from $95 per barrel, assuming no new round of escalation in the Middle East conflict. ANZ noted that although oil transport flows through the Strait of Hormuz have largely recovered, transport efficiency is only about 60% of pre-war levels. This means that the recovery in crude export flows has not yet brought about simultaneous normalization across the entire supply chain. Transport capacity, shipping arrangements, and refining links remain constrained, keeping actual deliveries under persistent difficulty. Even if logistics conditions do not deteriorate further, the current tight delivery situation, especially restrictions in shipping, may make it difficult for the global oil market to rebuild inventories. Individual Stock News U.S. tech stocks broadly fell in premarket trading. On Friday, as of press time, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) plunged nearly 26%, AMD (AMD.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) fell more than 8%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), SK Hynix (SKHY.US), Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US), and Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) fell more than 7%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) fell more than 5%, Qualcomm (QCOM.US), SpaceX (SPCX.US), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) fell more than 4%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) and Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) fell nearly 4%, and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) fell nearly 3%. In optical communications stocks, Credo Technology (CRDO.US) and Coherent (COHR.US) fell more than 8%, Astera Labs (ALAB.US) and Corning Inc (GLW.US) fell more than 6%, and Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US) fell nearly 6%. Intel Corporation (INTC.US) Q4 guidance far below expectations, PC business remains weak. The earnings report showed that Intel Corporation's Q3 revenue rose 21% year over year to $16.5 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were 52 cents, both above market expectations. Performance across business segments diverged sharply. The Data Center and AI (DCAI) group became the core growth engine, with Q3 revenue of $7.318 billion, surging 78% year over year, and operating profit of $3.039 billion, for a margin of 41.5%. The Client Computing and Physical AI group (CCPG), related to personal computers (PCs), was weak, with revenue of $8.097 billion, down 5% year over year, and operating profit contracting in tandem. Management said demand for server CPUs is high, but supply is the biggest constraint, and the company is easing tight supply of Xeon processors by increasing factory capacity and optimizing yields. The company also said it expects the PC market slowdown to last at least through the first half of 2027. On guidance, the company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents, both sharply below expectations. The pressure on results was partly due to an explosion at its Israel plant, which is expected to reduce Q4 revenue by about $300 million and gross margin by about 200 basis points. The company also raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $20 billion from $18 billion and expects a further increase in 2027. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) Q3 revenue slightly below expectations, AWS revenue jumps 39%, capital expenditure far exceeds expectations and free cash flow turns negative. The earnings report showed that Amazon.com, Inc.'s Q3 net sales rose 12% year over year to $201.94 billion, slightly below market expectations; diluted earnings per share were $1.89, down about 3% year over year. Core AWS revenue rose 39.3% year over year to $45.98 billion, the highest single-quarter growth rate in nearly five years, with an operating margin of 38.7%. On the earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy projected that AWS growth would exceed 40% in both 2027 and 2028 and that it could achieve annual revenue of more than $1 trillion in the next 5 to 10 years, calling AI a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity." At the same time, e-commerce revenue growth slowed, and the company's holiday-season sales outlook suggests that the online business may struggle to rebound quickly. Third-quarter capital expenditure reached $77.26 billion, far above the market expectation of $57.47 billion; free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $42.36 billion. Looking ahead to Q4 2026, Amazon.com, Inc. expects net revenue of between $240 billion and $247 billion, up 12% to 16% year over year; it expects operating profit of between $28.5 billion and $33.5 billion, above $25 billion in the year-ago period. The company maintained its 2026 capital expenditure forecast of about $220 billion and expects spending to increase significantly in 2027. SanDisk (SNDK.US) Q1 revenue surges 378% year over year to $11 billion, data center business revenue jumps nearly 17-fold. The earnings report showed that, driven by surging NAND flash demand fueled by AI infrastructure buildout and rising product prices, SanDisk's fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue reached $11.031 billion, up 378% year over year and 23% quarter over quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $49.51, up about 26% from $39.25 in the previous quarter, compared with $1.22 in the year-ago period. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 85.1%, up 55.2 percentage points from 29.9% in the year-ago period and up 0.5 percentage points from 84.6% in the previous quarter. The data center business became SanDisk's fastest-growing segment, with revenue of $4.8 billion, up 61% from the previous quarter and surging 1,682% from the year-ago period, exceeding the company's estimate for overall market growth in the quarter. Looking ahead to the fiscal 2027 second quarter, SanDisk expects revenue of between $12.2 billion and $12.6 billion, which at the midpoint of $12.4 billion would represent about 12% growth from $11.031 billion in the first fiscal quarter; it expects second-quarter GAAP gross margin of between 84.4% and 85.4% and non-GAAP gross margin of between 84.5% and 85.5%, implying profitability is expected to remain at a high level; it expects second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of between $55 and $57, which at the midpoint of $56 would represent about 13% growth from $49.51 in the first fiscal quarter. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX.US) Q4 U.S. business recovers better than expected, new fiscal year growth guidance slows to 4%. The earnings report showed that Starbucks Corporation's Q4 revenue was $9.14 billion, down about 4% year over year, below the market expectation of $9.22 billion, with the decline mainly due to the China retail business no longer being consolidated after switching to a licensed joint venture model with Boyu Capital. Profitability was strong, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.80, up 54% year over year, above analysts' expectation of $0.72. Global same-store sales rose 7.2%, the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, above the market expectation of about 6%. U.S. same-store sales rose 7.7%, exceeding expectations, helped by store renovations and strong performance of the coffee chain's fall menu products. North America grew 7.9%; international markets grew only 0.9%, below the expected 3.2%, as lower transaction volume offset higher average ticket. However, maintaining the current growth rate will become increasingly difficult. Starbucks Corporation expects North America same-store sales to grow about 4% in the fiscal year beginning in late September, indicating that growth is slowing after three consecutive quarters of more than 7% growth. Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD.US) Q3 delivers "good news and bad news": raises full-year sales guidance, but Biktarvy will face 38% U.S. Medicare price cut pressure. The earnings report showed that Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s Q3 revenue was $8.3 billion, above the market expectation of $7.8 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.55, sharply exceeding the market expectation of $2.19. Driven by double-digit growth in its flagship HIV drug portfolio, Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s Q3 product sales rose 13% year over year to $8.3 billion, exceeding market expectations; excluding COVID drug Veklury (remdesivir), "base business" sales rose 16% year over year to $8.2 billion, the fastest year-over-year base business growth in more than a decade. Based on the strong performance, Gilead raised its full-year 2026 product sales guidance to $31 billion to $31.3 billion (previously $30.1 billion to $30.4 billion). As of press time, Gilead Sciences, Inc. was up more than 5% in Friday's U.S. premarket trading. Record monthly active users cannot hide concerns: Pinterest (PINS.US) Q3 revenue and profit both miss expectations, Q4 guidance weak. The earnings report showed that Pinterest's third-quarter revenue was $1.174 billion, up 12% year over year, below the market average expectation of $1.21 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.46, below the market expectation of $0.49; adjusted EBITDA was $339 million, also slightly below the expected $348 million. In the third quarter, Pinterest's global monthly active users rose 10% year over year to 661 million, a record high. Among them, U.S. and Canada users rose 4% to 107 million; Europe users rose 7% to 161 million; rest-of-world users rose 13% to 394 million. But user growth did not revenue in tandem. On guidance, Pinterest expects fourth-quarter revenue of $1.425 billion to $1.475 billion (midpoint $1.45 billion), below the market expectation of $1.52 billion; adjusted EBITDA guidance is $538 million to $588 million, also below the market expectation of $605 million. As of press time, Pinterest was down more than 9% in Friday's U.S. premarket trading. Revenue misses expectations, transaction volume halves, Coinbase (COIN.US) Q3 turns profitable on Bitcoin gains. The earnings report showed that Coinbase's Q3 total revenue was $1.216 billion, down about 35% year over year and below the expected $1.233 billion. GAAP net income was $719 million, and diluted earnings per share were $2.51, reversing the previous string of lossesthe market had expected a net loss of about $35 million. But profit came almost entirely from $715 million in unrealized gains on its crypto asset investment portfolioBitcoin rose about 39% in the third quarter. Transaction revenue was $590 million, halved year over year (-44%), but above the market expectation of about $527 million; subscription and services revenue was $570 million, up 3% quarter over quarter and accounting for nearly half of revenue, including $307 million in stablecoin revenue; new businesses were the biggest highlight, with prediction market annualized revenue exceeding $200 million and daily trading users up more than 60% quarter over quarter, making it one of the fastest-growing products in history. As of press time, Coinbase was down more than 5% in Friday's U.S. premarket trading. Roblox (RBLX.US) Q3 daily active users fall below expectations: pain from child safety overhaul continues. Roblox's third-quarter user numbers fell short of analyst expectations, and questions are also being raised about whether a new hit game can reverse the recent decline in user engagement caused by stricter child safety measures. The earnings report showed that the company's revenue was $1.572 billion, up 16% year over year; net loss narrowed to $230 million, with a loss per share of $0.32, better than the market expectation of $0.42; adjusted EBITDA was $138 million, far above $46 million in the year-ago period. User data was the main drag. Daily active users (DAU) were 138 million, down 9% year over year and below analysts' expectation of 145.8 million; engagement hours were about 34 billion, down 15% year over year. Bookings were $1.697 billion, down 12% year over year, but above Wall Street's expectation of $1.63 billion and the upper end of the company's own guidance. The company attributed the decline to a high base in 2025 and the impact of child safety measures. As of press time, Roblox was down more than 17% in Friday's U.S. premarket trading. Sanofi (SNY.US) Q3 profit far exceeds expectations, strong Dupixent demand cannot mask patent cliff concerns. Data showed that Sanofi's third-quarter net sales were EUR14.444 billion, up 16.2% year over year and up 14.3% at constant exchange rates; among them, Dupixent sales reached EUR5.7 billion (about $6.4 billion), surging 34.8% year over year, exceeding EUR5 billion in a single quarter for the second time in history and also above analysts' expectation of EUR5.2 billion, driving profit above expectations. Earnings per share excluding certain items were EUR3.55, far above analysts' expectation of EUR2.80. Driven by growing demand for its blockbuster skin and asthma drug Dupixent (dupilumab), Sanofi raised its full-year sales and profit forecasts for the second consecutive quarter. The French drugmaker said on Friday that at constant exchange rates, sales this year are expected to grow by a low-teens percentage, above its previous forecast of 10%; earnings per share excluding certain items are expected to grow by a mid-teens percentage. However, Dupixent's sales performance also highlights Sanofi's deep reliance on the drug. The drug will begin losing patent protection in the early 2030s, and Sanofi has not yet found a credible alternative source of revenue. As of press time, Sanofi was up more than 3% in Friday's U.S. premarket trading. Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR (AZN.US) Q3 profit growth exceeds expectations, oncology drugs are the main growth driver. At constant exchange rates (CER), Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR's Q3 total revenue rose 7% year over year to $16.209 billion, product sales were $15.066 billion, up 5%, and alliance revenue was $1.107 billion, up 36%. Core earnings per share were $2.79, up 19% year over year; reported earnings per share were $2.02, up 26%. According to expectations compiled by MarketBeat, the market had originally expected core earnings per share of $2.60 and revenue of $16.00 billion for the quarter, and actual results were about 7% and 1% above those, respectively. By segment, oncology continued to be the main growth driver: revenue was $7.765 billion, up 17% year over year, accounting for 48% of total revenue. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 CER guidance: mid-to-high single-digit growth in total revenue, low-teens growth in core EPS, and a core tax rate of 18%22%, and plans to raise the full-year dividend to $3.30 per share. As of press time, Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR was up nearly 5% in Friday's U.S. premarket trading. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) Q3 results exceed expectations, refining boom is the driver. Exxon Mobil Corporation's Q3 total revenue and other income were $113.164 billion, up 32.7% year over year; net income attributable to shareholders was $15.413 billion, up 104%; reported earnings per share were $3.72, up 111%; adjusted earnings per share were $4.23. According to market-compiled expectations, the market had originally expected adjusted earnings per share of $4.03 and revenue of $106.02 billion for the quarter, and actual results were about 5% and 7% above those, respectively. The jump in profit came mainly from refining. The Energy Products segment reported profit of $7.169 billion, up 31% quarter over quarter, and adjusted profit of $9.053 billion, up 121% quarter over quarter; the indicative refining margin rose to $50.3 per barrel in the quarter from $29.0 in the previous quarter, and crude unit utilization at U.S. Gulf Coast refineries reached 100%. BP p.l.c. Sponsored ADR (BP.US) Q3 profit soars to an 18-year high: refining becomes a "money printer," CEO's overhaul gets a strong tailwind. Helped by surging refining margins, BP p.l.c. Sponsored ADR's quarterly profit jumped to the highest level in 18 years, giving CEO Meg O'Neill a strong boost in overhauling the British energy giant. BP p.l.c. Sponsored ADR said in a statement on Friday that third-quarter adjusted net profit was $8.46 billion, above $2.21 billion in the year-ago period and far exceeding the market's previous expectation of $7.3 billion. More than half of profit came from the segment including refining and trading. The customer and products segment, which includes oil trading and refining, posted profit of $4.8 billion in the quarter, compared with full-year 2025 profit of $5.3 billion for the segment. Net debt fell sharply to $13.87 billion from $22.3 billion three months earlier, exceeding the target a year ahead of the company's original plan. High oil prices plus strong refining, Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) Q3 net income surges 180% year over year. Driven by high oil prices and record U.S. refining margins, the company's earnings rose to the fourth-highest in history and beat analysts' expectations across the board. The earnings report showed that Chevron Corporation's third-quarter net income attributable to shareholders was $9.9 billion, up about 180% from $3.5 billion in the year-ago period; adjusted earnings per share were $5.28, 35 cents above the analysts' average expectation. Refining was the key engine behind Chevron Corporation's beat this quarter. The segment's third-quarter profit reached $4.93 billion, a record high and about four times the year-ago level. Although the company reduced its share buyback size to $2.5 billion, it remains within the full-year guidance range. On capital allocation, Chevron Corporation used excess profit mainly for debt reduction for the second consecutive quarter, a more conservative approach than Shell and Repsol, both of which raised buybacks by more than 65%. Key Economic Data and Event Preview 00:00 Beijing time the next day: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks at the opening of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's 2026 Economic Research Symposium 00:30 Beijing time the next day: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivers remarks