U.S. September durable goods orders rebounded, core capital goods shipments accelerated, and equipment investment remains resilient.

U.S. September durable goods orders rebounded, with core capital goods orders and shipments growing in tandem, indicating that business equipment investment remained strongly momentum in the third quarter. However, as technology giants continue to invest massive amounts of capital in building artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, related investment costs are steadily rising and the return outlook remains uncertain, prompting the market to pay closer attention to the sustainability of this investment boom. Data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-on-month in September, a sharp rebound from the previous value's 0.1% decline, but below the market expectation of 2.0%. Durable goods orders cover manufactured goods with longer service lives such as transportation equipment, and the rebound reflects that demand for related goods remains resilient. The key indicator reflecting business equipment spending also maintained growth. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraftgenerally regarded as an important leading indicator of business equipment investmentrose 0.5% month-on-month in September, below the market expectation of 0.7%; the August increase was maintained at 1.6%. Meanwhile, core capital goods shipments excluding aircraft surged 1.2% month-on-month in September, higher than the previous 0.6% increase. This indicator is used in the calculation of business equipment investment in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) report, so the acceleration in shipments further indicates that business equipment spending remained strong in the third quarter. Over the past two quarters, U.S. business equipment investment has achieved double-digit growth, with active AI investment as an important driving force, providing support to manufacturing and the overall economy. Economists expect that the preliminary third-quarter GDP reading to be released by the U.S. government on Thursday may show the economy grew at an annualized rate of more than 3.0%. However, market attitudes toward AI infrastructure construction are changing. Although companies continue to increase investment in computing power and related equipment, the construction costs of large projects are high, and the ultimate commercial returns remain uncertain. Over the past year, technology companies have raised substantial funds for AI investment, and as the scale of investment continues to expand, investors are paying increasing attention to whether capital expenditure can be converted into sufficient revenue and profit. Overall, the rebound in September durable goods orders and the acceleration in core capital goods shipments show that U.S. manufacturing demand and business equipment investment remain resilient. But the slightly below-expectation order growth also reminds the market that it cannot judge the growth trend based on a single month's data alone. Next, the third-quarter GDP data and the latest statements from technology giants on AI capital expenditure and investment returns will become important clues for assessing U.S. economic momentum and the sustainability of AI investment.