Broker Morning Meeting Highlights | Supply constraints persist in 26Q4 as commodity divergence deepens

On the previous trading day (October 26), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.19% to 3,697.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.19% to 11,534.38 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.71% to 2,638.23 points; turnover across the two markets was RMB2.036935 trillion; across the whole market, 2,252 stocks rose, 3,157 fell, 168 were flat, 53 hit the daily limit up, and 3 hit the daily limit down. Guotai Haitong believes that after the midterm elections the probability of the US moving toward divided government is very high, and a divided-government setup is positive for US Treasuries, US tech stocks, and the dollar; Guotou Securities believes that the technical rebound has sufficient strength and evidence, and that both win rate and odds are good at the current position, but investors should not respond with a reversal mindset; Huafu Securities believes that the core of physical AI is the world model, and Siasun Robot&Automation is its only complete feedback-loop carrier; Zhongtai believes that SOFC is already economical for main power supply in AI data centers, and North America's power shortage opens up growth space; CITIC SEC believes that supply constraints and low inventories will continue to support prices of some commodities, and copper prices are expected to run at high levels. Guotai Haitong: High probability of divided government after midterms; divided-government setup positive for US Treasuries, US tech stocks, and the dollar Although both chambers of the US Congress are currently controlled by the Republican Party, judging from three aspectshistorical patterns, the downward trend in Trump's approval rating, and Polymarket betting resultsit is likely that Republicans will lose control of both chambers, and the probability that the US moves toward "fully divided government" after the midterm elections is very high. A divided government will mainly affect US policy and the economy through blocked fiscal expansion, government shutdown brinkmanship, and divergence among subsectors; comprehensive tariff pressure may ease, but the probability of tech sanctions and geopolitical friction may rise. Historical reviews show that divided government is positive for US Treasuries, US tech stocks, and the dollar, while gold performs worse than during unified government periods. Guotou Securities: Deep-V volume-backed repair not yet complete The previous issue noted that an oversold rebound could occur at any time. From the perspective of "trend," the moving-average systems of major broad-based indices are still in bearish alignment, and no index has completed a medium-term turn. But from the perspective of "technique," after last Friday's deep-V rebound, the all-weather timing model once again issued a long signal, and multi-level bottom divergences and daily KDJ golden crosses appeared almost universally across mainstream broad-based indices, so the technical rebound has sufficient strength and evidence. In addition, apart from the Shanghai Composite Index, the upside gaps in other mainstream broad-based indices have not yet been filled, and there may still be short-term technical rebound demand. Looking back at the same type of all-weather timing model signals over the past 10 years, after such signals appeared, the market often had some need for consolidation through fluctuation, but the overall win rate was relatively high. That is to say, both win rate and odds are fairly good at the current position, but some patience is needed, and investors should not respond with an overly optimistic reversal mindset. Huafu Securities: Core of physical AI is the world model; Siasun Robot&Automation is the core carrier; data becomes the scarcest resource The core of physical AI is the world model, and Siasun Robot&Automation is its only carrier with a complete feedback loop. At GTC Berlin, Jensen Huang said that physical AI is the next wave of AI, and Nvidia is building physical AI infrastructure around computing power, simulation, models, and deployment, providing a complete development toolchain for Siasun Robot&Automation companies. In addition, OpenAI head Altman publicly stated that it has confirmed in-house development of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation and expects to launch a demonstration prototype in 2027. Wang Xingxing clearly stated at this week's physical AI ecosystem conference that future large models may "break through" physical AI, and Unitree is also advancing its own physical AI system in parallel. Besides OpenAI, model companies such as Meta, Google, and ByteDance have all entered the field. Generally speaking, model companies can only purchase training data externally or co-build it with hardware makers, so data collection has thus become external demand that can be independently priced. From this we judge that if physical AI is to be "broken through," data has become the scarcest underlying resource. Zhongtai: AI power shortage broken by SOFC; North American data center power supply opens growth space SOFC (solid oxide fuel cell) power generation efficiency is 50%60%, and combined heat and power efficiency can reach as high as 90%, playing a key role as "on-site main power" in AI data center power supply systems; construction can be completed in as fast as 90 days, far faster than grid interconnection at 25 years and gas turbine delivery cycles of about 5 years, and the levelized cost of electricity is already lower than that of simple-cycle gas turbines. North America's AI computing power boom has driven a surge in electricity demand, while grid expansion is extremely slow and gas turbine capacity is insufficient; SOFC power supply cases such as Oracle, AEP, Equinix, and CoreWeave have successively landed. According to estimates, under neutral assumptions, SOFC shipments will reach 8.5GW by 2030, with a market size of about US$17.8 billion. CITIC SEC: Supply constraints to persist in 26Q4; commodity divergence to deepen Looking ahead to 26Q4, tightening expectations will still cause disturbances, while supply constraints and low inventories will continue to support prices of some commodities. Copper prices are expected to run at high levels, coal prices may rise in peak season, crude oil is expected to fluctuate at high levels, rubber may run firm, and gold ETF and central bank gold purchase demand are expected to support gold prices. Cost support for electrolytic aluminum remains, while medium-term supply pressure rises. For lithium carbonate, watch the pressure from supply recovery and slowing demand; steel and iron ore are expected to bottom at low levels; silicon products are awaiting inventory and policy guidance.