Goldman Sachs: Cuts Zijin Mining Group (02899) H-share target price by 6%, reiterates Conviction Buy List

Goldman Sachs issued a research report stating that it has lowered the H-share target price of Zijin Mining Group (02899) by 5.9%, from HK$51 to HK$48, and also lowered the A-share target price. The ratings for both A-shares and H-shares remain "Buy," and the company has been reiterated on the "Conviction Buy List." Goldman Sachs noted that Zijin Mining Group's net profit for the third quarter of 2026 was RMB 18.4 billion (same unit below), up 26% year-on-year. Excluding non-recurring gains and losses (mainly fair value change gains), recurring net profit for the third quarter was RMB 18.0 billion, up 42% year-on-year. For the first nine months of 2026, the company's recurring net profit was RMB 56.8 billion, accounting for approximately 70%-71% of the bank's full-year 2026 forecast and the institutional consensus, broadly in line with expectations. The bank adjusted Zijin Mining Group's earnings forecasts, lowering 2026 by 2%, raising 2027 by 1%, and lowering 2028 by 5%. The adjustments are mainly based on the latest changes in copper, gold, and lithium price forecasts, lower investment income from joint ventures and associates, and higher gold unit costs reflected in the third-quarter financial report. The bank expects that, benefiting from rising gold and copper prices and output growth, Zijin Mining Group will maintain strong earnings growth momentum. The company's gold and copper output both have a compound annual growth rate of 8%, and recurring net profit is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 22% from 2026 to 2028. The bank's recent research on China's commodities market shows that, despite weak domestic demand, the supply and price outlook for copper remains positive. The bank reiterated that Zijin Mining Group is one of the few mining companies that can benefit from both output growth and rising copper prices. The bank expects the company's copper output growth rate to reaccelerate from 2%-4% in 2025-2026 to 9% in 2027.