Institutional research coverage signals a market bellwether, can HAIXI PHARMA (02637), which is accelerating its innovation transformation, see its valuation repaired as expected?

Title context: Institutional research coverage signals a market bellwether, can HAIXI PHARMA (02637), which is accelerating its innovation transformation, see its valuation repaired as expected? Text: After experiencing an "eight consecutive declines" in recent days, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index finally posted a long-awaited positive candle on October 20, with intraday gains at one point exceeding 2.5%. Against this backdrop, HAIXI PHARMA (02637) share price performance has been somewhat lackluster. However, it has been observed that several institutions have recently updated their research coverage on HAIXI PHARMA, generally giving high expectations for HAIXI PHARMA's innovative pipeline, and some institutions' target prices are significantly higher than HAIXI PHARMA's current share price. For investors, this may be a positive market bellwether signal. After a 250% surge post-IPO In fact, compared with HAIXI PHARMA's over 30% share price decline since April, the Hong Kong innovative drug index during the same period, although also experiencing volatile declines, fell only about 8.99% overall, indicating that HAIXI PHARMA's share price has clearly underperformed the index. Therefore, compared with sector fluctuations, the existence of independent suppressing factors at the individual stock level may be the important reason dominating HAIXI PHARMA's share price trend during this stage. It has been observed that after listing on the Hong Kong stock market on October 20 last year, HAIXI PHARMA's share price climbed all the way, and the intraday new high of HK$302.40 on April 28 represented a 250% increase from its IPO price of HK$86.40. In particular, starting from late March this year, the company's share price began to surge rapidly from around HK$140 per share, doubling within just one month. And on April 20, HAIXI PHARMA reached its half-year listing anniversary and ushered in the lock-up expiry, among which cornerstone investors held 1,981,700 shares, accounting for 2.52% of total share capital after issuance. Therefore, what HAIXI PHARMA actually faced in late April this year was the high-valuation realization pressure of "post-IPO share price doubling + cornerstone lock-up expiry window." In particular, the company was also officially included in the Stock Connect list in March this year. While the Stock Connect mechanism significantly enhanced its stock market liquidity and southbound capital participation, it also further amplified the share price volatility of this low-float, high-expectation Mechanism B innovative drug stock. However, HAIXI PHARMA's share price during this downtrend was not a one-way decline, but rather a repeated alternation of high-volatility declines and rebound repairs. Taking the market performance since July 31 as an example, HAIXI PHARMA's share price during this stage experienced an inverted V-shaped trajectory of "platform breakout on volume - high-level divergence - weak repair after volume-driven decline." It has been observed that after market close on August 4, the company announced that its blockbuster innovative drug HX9428 received FDA Phase II clinical IND approval in the United States, while simultaneously launching a second positive-controlled Phase II clinical trial domestically, planning to enroll 60 nAMD patients for a head-to-head comparison against aflibercept. It was precisely the market's revaluation of the company driven by the clinical advancement of HX9428 that propelled its share price gains in the first half of August. Supported by positive innovative drug news, HAIXI PHARMA's share price rise in early August was accompanied by sustained volume expansion, and pullbacks did not show significant volume-driven selling. Among them, the company's single-day trading volume on August 14 expanded to 2.41 times the prior 20-day average volume, with the closing price breaking above the upper edge of the platform; then on August 17, its single-day trading volume again expanded to 2.65 times the prior 20-day average volume, pushing the share price to a stage high of HK$248 the next day. On the corresponding technical front, on August 18, HAIXI PHARMA's 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages representing short- and medium-term trends all showed a bullish alignment with the trend intact; meanwhile, the MACD indicator on that day was still accelerating above the zero line, with momentum showing no obvious signs of exhaustion; and the RSI indicator was only about 62.4, not yet in extreme overbought territory, indicating that some trend inertia still existed at that time. However, on the other hand, HAIXI PHARMA's KDJ indicator on August 18 showed that the J value had already fallen from high levels, indicating that short-term momentum was beginning to cool; on the BOLL indicator, while the company's closing price on that day approached the upper band, the BOLL bandwidth had reached about 33.8%, and the volatility expansion accompanying a strong share price breakout often means that volatility is imminent in the short term. The above different technical indicators pointing to different share price directions to some extent foreshadowed the beginning of high-level divergence in the market. Multiple institutional research reports cover the stock, market bellwether emerges After August 18, HAIXI PHARMA's share price trend clearly weakened overall after high-level divergence, and over the next two months gradually moved into a bearish technical structure of shrinking volume, breakdown and downward movement. It is not difficult to see that the market performance from August 18 to the present is clearly divided into two stages, with the key node being September 17. It has been observed that on September 17, HAIXI PHARMA experienced abnormal volume-price fluctuations: on that day the company's share price closed down 4.23% with the maximum drawdown larger than the closing decline; the corresponding turnover reached HK$93,351,600, significantly higher than the previous few days, reflecting intense bullish-bearish divergence during intraday trading that day. The reason lies in the fact that on September 16, HAIXI PHARMA issued an announcement disclosing the latest data from its core innovative drug candidate HX9428's Phase I/II clinical study for the treatment of nAMD. The announcement showed that HX9428's China Phase I clinical study for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) has completed 24-week treatment data observation; the China Phase II dose-expansion study is currently still ongoing and has obtained interim clinical data. Among them, interim data from HX9428's China Phase II dose-expansion study showed that with prolonged treatment duration, mean BCVA and CST data continued to improve. As of August 14, 2026, 11 patients who completed 24 weeks of treatment showed a mean BCVA improvement of 5.4 letters from baseline and a mean CST decrease of 72.5m from baseline, with the overall efficacy trend consistent with Phase I study results. As the number of patients who have completed 24 weeks of treatment is currently limited, the above data are interim results and still require further verification as the study progresses and sample size increases. After the announcement was disclosed, several domestic institutions updated their related research reports, generally giving high expectations for HAIXI PHARMA's innovative pipeline. Among them, brokerages including Huafu, China Merchants, and Guotai Haitong gave Buy/Accumulate ratings centered on HX9428 clinical data, oral compliance advantages and the BD collaboration window, and some institutions' target prices are significantly higher than HAIXI PHARMA's current share price. However, institutions also noted that HX9428's Phase I/II clinical trial preliminarily shows positive efficacy and safety trends, but its 24-week BCVA improvement of 5.2/5.4 letters is lower in absolute terms than aflibercept's 7.6-10.9 letter improvement at 52 weeks in VIEW 1&2 with 2mg, and its CST reduction of about 73m is also smaller than aflibercept's 110-160m. That is to say, although HX9428's safety data are acceptable, the efficacy data remain at an early stage and still require further verification as the study progresses and sample size increases, which may be one of the reasons why some funds chose to take profits on the positive news recently. But in fact, the share price changes that appeared after September 17 to some extent reflect that the market's short- to medium-term strategy toward HAIXI PHARMA is shifting from "pricing the imagination" back to "pricing data realization." Moreover, it is worth noting that HAIXI PHARMA's recent volume-price structure merely reflects high-level turnover under announcement catalysis. The current dominant logic for HAIXI PHARMA remains the scarcity of HX9428 as a potential oral fundus disease drug, which means that as more positive data from core candidates are read out subsequently, HAIXI PHARMA's valuation repair remains foreseeable.