Nuclear power commercialization progressing slower than expected; Barclays bearish on NuScale Power (SMR.US)

Barclays downgraded small modular reactor technology provider NuScale Power (SMR.US) from "Hold" to "Underweight" with a price target of $5, citing risks from delays in key commercialization contracts. Barclays analyst Christine Cho believes that NuScale's investment thesis depends on commercialization milestones, and the pace at which these milestones are being achieved is slower than expected, increasing the company's execution risk. Cho noted in the report that the most notable issue is that Tennessee Valley Authority 6 1/2 % Putable Automatic Rate Reset Secs 1999-1.5.29 Series A (TVA) and ENTRA1 Energy have yet to announce a final power purchase agreement (PPA) to support a 6-gigawatt deployment plan using NuScale's small modular reactor technology. This raises the risk that negotiations could extend into 2027. Although NuScale continues to make progress on the supply chain, including manufacturing long-lead-time components and first production of boron oxide pellets, Cho believes these advances are "more like preconditions than project-defining milestones." Without binding customer agreements, the analyst believes "it remains difficult to determine when NuScale will be able to convert its design and supply chain into financed projects, construction activity, and ultimately commercial deployment." Meanwhile, Cho maintained an "Overweight" rating on Oklo (OKLO.US), saying its Groves project in Texas "demonstrates tangible execution," progressing from groundbreaking in September 2025 to first criticality in August 2026. First criticality typically refers to the state in which a nuclear reactor achieves a self-sustaining chain reaction, an important milestone in the commissioning phase of a nuclear power project. In addition, Groves-2 Forge provides a pathway for Oklo to build a larger-scale, vertically integrated commercial isotope platform. NuScale closed down 1.93% at $5.58 on Tuesday, having touched a 52-week low of $5.33 intraday. The stock has fallen more than 60% year to date.