Guosen: China's footwear and apparel export growth both exceeded 20% in September; focus on order fulfillment and fundamentals recovery.

Guosen released a research report stating that brand apparel should capture the recovery in demand and the resilience of high-end consumption, while the manufacturing sector should focus on order fulfillment and fundamentals recovery. Consumption is recovering marginally, with high-end sports and outdoor, high-end casual, and mid-to-high-end home textiles continuing to show relative prosperity. It is recommended to focus on high-end consumption-related companies with superior brand strength, product innovation capabilities, and channel operation quality, as well as clear fundamental trends, against the backdrop of marginal demand improvement. The export growth rate of textile manufacturing has increased significantly, and brand restocking and order fulfillment are driving continued improvement in fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on high-quality manufacturing leaders with high order visibility, outstanding capacity layout and customer structure advantages, and strong operational resilience, while also capturing recovery-type targets with marginal profit improvement. Guosen's main viewpoints are as follows: Market Review Since October, the A-share textile and apparel index has outperformed the broader market, with brand apparel outperforming textile manufacturing, at -0.5%/-1.9% respectively; the Hong Kong stock textile and apparel index has risen 3.7% since October, outperforming the broader market. Among key companies, those with leading gains since October include: VF Corporation (20.9%)/Eclat Textile (18.2%)/YUE YUEN IND (14.3%)/CRYSTAL INTL (13.5%)/Hla Group Corp., (10.1%)/Amer Sports (9.7%)/Luolai Lifestyle Technology (9.7%)/adidas (9.6%)/BOSIDENG (9.5%)/Under Armour (9.4%)/Makalot Industrial (8.6%)/SHENZHOU INTL (7.4%)/JNBY (7.3%) Brand Apparel Viewpoints 1) Omnichannel: September apparel retail sales growth turned positive, up 1.2% year-on-year, with cumulative year-to-date growth of 4.6%. Monthly performance, except for July and August, was stronger than overall retail sales. 2) E-commerce: Holiday travel stocking combined with seasonal change demand led to a recovery in sports and outdoor e-commerce performance in September. Sales for sports apparel/outdoor apparel/casual apparel/home textiles/personal care were +4%/+5%/-8%/-18%/-8% year-on-year respectively. Among sports apparel, Descente (47%), ASICS (36%), and Xtep (35%) led growth; among outdoor brands, Kailas (131%), Kolon (74%), and Sanfo X (74%) performed well; among casual apparel, Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment (432%), Uniqlo (13%), and Hla Group Corp., (8%) led growth; among home textile brands, Atour Planet (79%), Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding and Furnishing (17%), and Shanghai Shuixing Home Textile (14%) achieved growth; among personal care brands, Vinda (3%) and Space 7 (1%) led growth. 3) Xiaohongshu: From July to September 2026, the top three sports and outdoor brands by follower growth over the past three months were adidas (19.7%), On Running (11.2%), and Xtep (10.9%); the top three casual fashion brands by follower growth were DAZZLE (10.3%), Uniqlo (5.1%), and MIUMIU (4%); the top three maternal and personal care brands by follower growth were Babycare (13.6%), Free Point (5.9%), and Kotex (2.7%). Textile Manufacturing Viewpoints 1) Textile exports: In September, Vietnam's textile exports were +4.4% year-on-year for the month, and footwear exports were +7.7% year-on-year, with growth rates accelerating month-on-month; in September, China's textile/apparel/footwear exports were +19.0%/+23.8%/+20.2% year-on-year respectively, with growth rates all rising to double digits, and cumulative growth for the first nine months was +5.4%/+4.8%/-2.5% respectively; Indonesia/India PMI rose 2.6/2.3 month-on-month respectively, while Vietnam PMI fell 1.4 month-on-month. 2) Raw material prices: Since the beginning of the year, both domestic and international cotton prices have shown an upward trend, +12.1%/+17.2% to 17,432 yuan/ton and 15,210 yuan/ton respectively; compared with the intra-year highs on September 2/September 1, they are -5.4%/-10.8% respectively, and since October both have shown an upward trend, +0.2%/+1.9% respectively, with the domestic-international cotton price spread narrowing. Since the beginning of the year, nylon FDY/nylon DTY/polyester FDY/polyester DTY prices have generally shown an upward trend. As of October 11, 2026, they rose 32.3%/31.2%/46.9%/37.3% to 16,400 yuan/ton, 18,100 yuan/ton, 9,800 yuan/ton, and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively, and compared with the same period last year, +34.4%/+27.9%/+45.2%/+35.3% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, wool prices have risen 28.3% to USD 13.10/kg. As of September 24, compared with the same period last year, +36.3%, and prices have fallen 2.9% since September. Since the beginning of the year, PA6 and PA66 prices have risen 47.0%/22.7% to 14,900 yuan/ton and 19,100 yuan/ton respectively. As of October 15, compared with the same period last year, +48.5%/+17.4% respectively, and since October, +2.1%/0.0% respectively. 3) OEM Taiwanese companies: September overall improved compared with August, among which Yue Yuen's year-on-year growth improved from -2.1% in August to +5.6%, and its manufacturing business improved from -1.6% to +6.6%; Eclat Textile's year-on-year growth improved from -1.1% to +8.3%, up 6.0% month-on-month, hitting a new high for the same period in previous years; Makalot's year-on-year growth improved significantly from -5.1% to +24.1%, but approximately NT$70-80 million of goods were deferred to October due to tight flight capacity; Lai Yi's year-on-year growth rose from +3.1% to +14.0%, up 6.2% month-on-month, maintaining positive growth for two consecutive months; Feng Tay's year-on-year decline widened from -2.8% to -4.8%, down 12.6% month-on-month, with monthly revenue continuously below the peak-season levels of July and August. Overall, most Taiwanese companies saw revenue improvement in September, while logistics deferrals, exchange rates, and tariff costs continued to affect monthly shipment. Going forward, attention should be paid to the fulfillment of deferred orders in October, the sustainability of brand restocking, and order visibility for the fourth quarter. Risk warnings: Weak macroeconomy; international political and economic risks; significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices.