Can Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) stock reach $4,400? "Wooden Sister" Cathie Wood's ARK bets on Robotaxi, expects merger with SpaceX within 5 years.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 3.8% on Monday to close at $368.06, ending a five-session losing streak. Investors weighed reports that Alphabet's Waymo plans to quintuple its autonomous driving fleet while awaiting Tesla, Inc.'s third-quarter earnings due after the bell on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management issued a 2031 price target of $4,400 for Tesla, Inc. and mentioned a potential merger with SpaceX (SPCX.US). ARK: Robotaxi to contribute about 80% of enterprise value ARK expects Tesla, Inc. shares to reach $4,400 by 2031, implying roughly 1,095% upside from current levels. In its model, Robotaxi (autonomous ride-hailing) contributes about 80% of projected enterprise value, and the Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation contributes more than in previous models. ARK's base case projects that by 2031 Tesla, Inc. will have accumulated about 8.1 million Robotaxis and delivered about 1 million Optimus units externally; total revenue of nearly $1.45 trillion and a market capitalization of $17.5 trillion. ARK analyst Tasha Keeney said on X: "Tesla, Inc. is still early in scaling Robotaxi, but its vertical integration and cost advantages could allow it to achieve broad service first." ARK estimates that, once operating at scale by 2031, the Cybercab's incremental operating cost per mile could be 40% lower than Waymo's Ioniq 5 platform. The firm also revised its pricing assumptions to reflect the willingness to pay of a broader customer base. The merger assumption is another potential catalyst mentioned by ARK. The report said: "While our model values Tesla, Inc. as a standalone business, a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. could occur within the next five years." ARK believes Tesla, Inc.'s Robotaxi cash flow could help fund SpaceX's orbital data centers, while SpaceX's frontier AI models could support Optimus. Combined, the two companies are projected to generate $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBIT by 2031, with SpaceX contributing 62% and 69%, respectively. Cautious views persist: all-stock merger could dilute Tesla, Inc. shareholders Gary Black, managing director of Future Fund, said he has long believed a SpaceX-Tesla, Inc. merger is inevitable but reiterated caution about the dilutive impact of an all-stock deal on Tesla, Inc. shareholders. He said on X: "Overall, I don't think a SpaceX/Tesla, Inc. all-stock deal would deliver a huge windfall to Tesla, Inc. shareholders, although the merger announcement itself would be modestly positive for Tesla, Inc. shares." Black offered a hypothetical price of about $420 per share, roughly 14% above Monday's close. He expects the combined company's valuation to track the acquirer's valuation multiples, citing FY2027 enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratios of about 29.4x for SpaceX and about 72.6x for Tesla, Inc. He also believes merger arbitrage trading could weigh on the share price during the six-to-twelve-month closing process. Robotaxi progress and board vote On Monday, Tesla, Inc. released a shareholder letter saying its Robotaxi service has expanded to seven U.S. cities, including the Cybercab, which has no steering wheel or pedals. The company also reported nearly 1.5 million paying FSD (Full Self-Driving) customers, with cumulative FSD Supervised miles exceeding 15 billion. The company is seeking shareholder support to re-elect Musk, Chair Robyn Denholm and J.B. Straubel at the annual meeting on Dec. 3. The proxy statement shows that, as of Sept. 30, Musk held about 699.6 million shares, or roughly 19.8%, including restricted stock from his 2018 award; although those shares are subject to service-based forfeiture conditions, they carry voting rights. The proxy also shows Musk's 2025 compensation at $158.36 billion based on grant-date award valuations, including a $26.1 billion interim award that lapsed in April. Q3 earnings due; retail investors focus on commercialization progress Tesla, Inc. will report third-quarter results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday. According to Koyfin data, the market expects revenue to fall 1% quarter over quarter, EBITDA to rise 15%, EBIT to rise 129% and adjusted earnings per share to rise 36%. According to Fiscal AI data, third-quarter revenue is expected at $28.98 billion versus $28.10 billion a year earlier; EBITDA is expected to fall to $3.40 billion from $4.23 billion a year earlier; and earnings per share to fall to $0.35 from $0.50. Morningstar expects Tesla, Inc.'s free cash flow to be negative for a second consecutive quarter due to heavy capital spending. The firm also expects investors to scrutinize the company's near-term guidance on Robotaxi and the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation. The earnings questions voted on by retail shareholders focused mainly on commercialization progress. The top-voted question, with about 1,000 votes, was: "When will we see FSD running unsupervised in customer vehicles?" Next was a question about when customers can buy and own a Cybercab, with 990 votes; a question seeking clarity on expansion beyond Austin and regulatory arrangements outside Texas received 848 votes. A question on Optimus unit cost and the first paying customer received 629 votes; another 437 votes asked "when Optimus is expected to start generating revenue." A question about a possible free upgrade for HW3 received 476 votes; other shareholders sought details on Robotaxi economics, insurance and private fleet arrangements. On Stocktwits, Tesla, Inc. retail sentiment over the past day was "neutral," with 24-hour message volume up 242%. One user said: "Tesla, Inc. has fallen after most earnings reports in the past; I think this one will surprise some people..." Another user said: "Tesla, Inc. is a 'growth' car company and shouldn't trade at the same valuation as traditional automakers. Operating profit has declined for five straight years. It can never justify a $1.5 trillion market cap and a 340x P/E. The only lifeline is Musk bundling his 'Ponzi-like businesses' into a bigger cash-burning 'Ponzi.'"