Metals Focus analysts remain firmly bullish on gold: It is consolidating rather than turning bearish, with a floor near $4,000.

Gold has been unable to sustain its rally since correcting earlier this year, and Metals Focus precious metals director Matthew Piggott said in an interview on Monday that this reflects a competition for investment capital rather than a fundamental deterioration in gold's long-term outlook. Piggott said that whenever gold prices fall toward $4,000/oz, institutional investors keep flowing back into the gold market, "so we have something of a floor, and central banks are a big part of that as well." Piggott said the underlying economic and geopolitical factors that supported the 2025 gold rally have not disappeared; if anything has changed, it is that swelling government debt and fiscal uncertainty have instead reinforced the long-term investment case for gold. He noted that massive government deficits, rising debt-servicing costs, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy should continue to drive capital diversification away from traditional dollar-denominated assets. Saxo Bank analysts wrote in a report: "The market remains caught in a tug-of-warshort-term selling pressure from macro-oriented traders on one side, and demand from investors who are less sensitive to interest rates and seeking safe haven amid multiple geopolitical and fiscal tensions on the other." Investors are also awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data due next week, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders currently see an 82.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this month, while expectations for a December rate hike remain at 90%. On Monday, gold futures edged lower as the dollar strengthened, yields rose, and oil prices narrowed their losses earlier in the day. The front-month Comex gold contract for October delivery fell 0.5% to $4,139.00/oz, while October Comex silver fell 2 cents to $56.974/oz.