Roadster takes flight: Can Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) spark another rally? Robotaxi and Optimus commercialization become the focus of earnings reports.

Title context: Roadster takes flight: Can Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) spark another rally? Robotaxi and Optimus commercialization become the focus of earnings reports. Text: Since late July, the stock price of U.S. AI, humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, autonomous driving technology and electric vehicle manufacturing giant Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) has been on an upward trajectory, and in the view of some Wall Street strategists, the rally is not over yet. In their view, the Deluxe Corporation car Roadster is responsible for demonstrating Tesla, Inc.'s powerful engineering strength, while Optimus (the "Optimus Prime" humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation) and Cybercab (the Robotaxi fully autonomous taxi) carry the core imagination for Tesla, Inc. to break through the automotive industry's valuation framework. Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX CEO the world's richest man Musk made it clear over the weekend that humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation and driverless taxis will constitute the vast majority of Tesla, Inc.'s future value. Tesla, Inc. is using its most cutting-edge flagship products to maintain brand attention while betting long-term growth on autonomous driving services and labor technology automation. Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has not yet shaken off pressure as of the October 16 U.S. market close, Tesla, Inc. closed at $354.72, down 7.31% last week, roughly flat so far in October, and down about 21% year to date. On Monday Beijing time, it rose about 1% during the night session, but as of 19:25 Beijing time on October 19, the pre-market quote had fallen back to $353.45, down 0.36%, showing to some extent that the attention brought by the blockbuster Roadster product launch has not yet translated into sustained buying. Wall Street bulls are mainly betting on the strong growth trajectory brought by FSD fully autonomous driving software, driverless robotaxis and the commercialization path of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. Dan Ives, a well-known Wall Street analyst at Yorkville Ives, believes that Tesla, Inc. has real-world data, dedicated hardware, manufacturing scale and direct sales channels, and can extend vehicles from one-time delivered products into a platform that continuously generates software revenue that is, Cybercab focuses on further expanding AI autonomous mobility service revenue based on fully autonomous driving technology, while Optimus enters industrial automation and the multi-trillion-dollar global labor market. Among the 27 Wall Street star analysts covered by TipRanks, 14 rate it "Buy" or "Outperform," 11 "Hold," and 2 "Sell"; this also means that analysts' unanimous optimism about the prospects of AI, fully autonomous driving and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation technology does not mean institutions unanimously believe the current valuation is cheap. Yorkville Ives continues to rate Tesla, Inc. "Outperform" with a target price as high as $500, implying more than 40% upside over the next 12 months. Sports car attracts attention, Robotaxi and Siasun Robot&Automation determine the distance Wall Street rating agency Morningstar believes that although based on Roadster official data it currently expects annual deliveries of fewer than 2,000 units, it can still attract consumers to buy other Tesla, Inc. models. CEO Elon Musk places the Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation and the Cybercab driverless taxi at the core of the company's future value; at the same time, a Morningstar analyst said the Roadster, which can "briefly achieve high-altitude flight," may attract buyers to Tesla, Inc.'s broader model lineup. Musk made those remarks after the highly anticipated sports car finally made its debut. In an automatically controlled demonstration, it used cold-gas thrusters to briefly lift off and flip, winning praise for Tesla, Inc.'s engineering strength while also raising questions about the vehicle's practicality. "Optimus and Cybercab will constitute the vast majority of Tesla, Inc.'s value," Musk said on X. He said superintelligence, Siasun Robot&Automation, CECEP Solar Energy and transporting matter to space are businesses capable of reaching extremely large economic scale, and progress in the first two will drive development in other areas. "But the Roadster is just too cool, so we're still going to do it," he added. Meanwhile, Morningstar views the Roadster as a "halo model": it showcases Tesla, Inc.'s best engineering and may stimulate consumer demand across its entire lineup. Morningstar said: "A high-end sports car that is both the fastest car in the world and capable of briefly flying can very powerfully highlight Tesla, Inc.'s image as a unique Deluxe Corporation car company. This should be able to attract consumers to buy Tesla, Inc. vehicles and may support delivery growth after the car goes into production in 2028." Morningstar noted that Tesla, Inc. claims the Roadster can accelerate from standstill to 60 mph in just 0.81 seconds; if that result is officially recorded on a track, its time would be slightly less than half of the current 1.66-second record. Morningstar expects that after production ramp-up is complete, Roadster annual deliveries will be fewer than 2,000 units, making it Tesla, Inc.'s lowest-volume model. Chris Camillo, author of "Laughing at Wall Street," believes that Musk's willingness to take on the risk of public failure may itself bring greater rewards. Camillo said on X: "Few CEOs would voluntarily expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with such limited financial upside. Elon did it anyway." He said Musk is helping America regain its passion for pursuing seemingly impossible things, and his influence on future entrepreneurs may far exceed any product Tesla, Inc. sells. "Whether the Roadster ever makes Tesla, Inc. a single dollar, or whether it affects Tesla, Inc.'s stock price, is almost beside the point," he said. "We need more people willing to risk failure to pursue things that others see as impossible. Because when they succeed, all of us benefit." Camillo said he has both been bullish on Tesla, Inc. and criticized it. He also questioned why people are eager to turn the demonstration into a debate over whether it counts as a flying car. "Can't we just acknowledge that that moment was unbelievably cool?" he added. Musk even directly challenged the F1 record over the weekend, saying he will demonstrate "Spider-Man"-like stunts in the future. Musk's weekend posts pushed expectations beyond last week's demonstration. "I think we can reach a peak speed of more than Mach 0.5, or about 400 miles per hour," he stressed, a latest development exceeding the top speed of 230 mph. He also claimed that the Roadster has an exclusive advantage over Liberty Media Corp. Series C Liberty Formula One. "Even without rocket thrusters, the Roadster will substantially reset the best F1 track lap times, because we use a suction system and active control surfaces, both of which F1 prohibits," Musk said. In another post, he said: "The Roadster can fly, spin, and stick to the underside of an overpass like Spider-Man." Musk also said owners will be able to ask the vehicle to automatically perform the stunts from the demonstration, and promised to build a test track with a loop-the-loop structure at Tesla, Inc.'s Texas headquarters, "crazier than a Hot Wheels toy track." Turing Award winner and researcher Yann LeCun, often called the "godfather of AI," believes the demonstration of Tesla, Inc.'s flying Roadster lacks practicality. Musk fired back. "I fart in your general direction," Musk replied. LeCun questioned the efficiency of the compressed-air system, estimating that even if air accounted for half of the vehicle's mass, it could provide less than 10 seconds of effective thrust. "In reality, it's probably closer to 5 seconds," he said, arguing that such a vehicle would have to use a lightweight shell housing a large gas tank. "The demo is interesting, but completely impractical. Of course, you know that yourself," LeCun added. Roadster reservations require up to $250,000, but delivery is not guaranteed. Tesla, Inc. lists a two-seat Performance version and a Thrust version, requiring reservation payments of $50,000 and $250,000 respectively; there is also an invitation-only single-seat Rocket version equipped with thrusters around the body. Reservations only secure a place in line and do not guarantee delivery. The car has not yet been approved for use on public roads, and availability depends on local laws. Musk acknowledged safety limitations and said it is uncertain whether it can be legally used everywhere. On model specification clarification Tesla, Inc.'s official website specifically lists the note "not yet approved for use on public roads" under the single-seat Rocket version. This also means that the single-seat Rocket version equipped with the flight system has not yet been approved for use on public roads. Tesla, Inc. will report third-quarter results later on Wednesday local time. Morningstar expects investors to focus on the latest progress in fully driverless taxis and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, as well as free cash flow; the firm expects Tesla, Inc.'s free cash flow to be negative for the second consecutive quarter. How do retail investors view Tesla, Inc.? On the Stocktwits platform, the unanimous sentiment of Tesla, Inc.'s retail investors fell from "bullish" a day earlier to "neutral," while discussion volume was at a "high" level. The chart above shows Tesla, Inc.'s market sentiment and message volume as of October 18. Source: Stocktwits. One user said: "Tesla, Inc., you bears just don't understand, Tesla, Inc. is going to fly like the Roadster on Monday!" Another user said: "Tesla, Inc., from a legal process perspective, if an acquisition is really going to happen, it will likely be announced at the next earnings release, which is scheduled for October 21. Ready for takeoff? $500." Year to date, Tesla, Inc.'s stock has lagged other companies in the "Magnificent Seven," falling about 21% and making it the worst performer among them. From selling cars to selling "autonomous technology capability," Tesla, Inc.'s earnings report must answer how to deliver on a "sci-fi-style future outlook" From a business mechanism perspective, Cybercab attempts to extend one-time vehicle revenue into continuous mobility revenue over the vehicle's life cycle: a model designed specifically for driverless operation has the opportunity to reduce manufacturing and operating costs, but profit ultimately depends on paid miles, vehicle utilization, and depreciation, insurance, cleaning and maintenance, and remote support costs. Tesla, Inc. has provided a driverless ride-hailing guide for Cybercab; however, Morgan Stanley recently remains focused on the size of the Robotaxi fleet in Austin and how FSD penetration can further expand, while emphasizing that utilization, safety performance and unit economics are the key validation points for the next stage. Its rating remains "Hold," with a target price consistently at $400. Optimus expands the market for executable labor tasks, with core value coming from reliably completing work rather than merely having a humanoid appearance. Reasoning from engineering and investment logic, Tesla, Inc.'s AI training, inference deployment and manufacturing experience help reduce development and mass-production costs, but driving capability cannot directly replace the dexterous manipulation, contact force control and long-term reliable operation required by Siasun Robot&Automation. How much customers are willing to pay depends on effective working hours, task success rates and maintenance costs. The company disclosed in the second quarter that it is still installing the first-generation Optimus production line, so this part of the valuation mainly corresponds to future commercialization potential and cannot yet be treated as a mature profit source, but investors are eager to know further mass-production plans and the delivery roadmap. The Roadster, meanwhile, serves a brand and technology display function: cold-gas thrusters provide short-term thrust, and the suction system and active aerodynamics enhance downforce, but these stunts themselves will not directly prove that driverless driving or Siasun Robot&Automation already have scalable profitability. What Tesla, Inc.'s October 21 earnings report really needs to connect is the cash-generating ability of the automotive and energy storage businesses, and the progress of converting AI investment into revenue. Tesla, Inc. delivered 486,532 vehicles and deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage in the third quarter; Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes the outlook for FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus may be more important to the stock price than quarterly earnings per share, while Morningstar expects free cash flow to be negative for the second consecutive quarter.