Industrial: J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) Continues to Consolidate Its Leading Position in Southeast Asian Express Delivery; Maintains "Overweight" Rating

Industrial released a research report stating that J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) has significant overseas advantages and great potential, and the continued anti-involution efforts in China have created a favorable development environment for the company. It is gratifying to see the company advancing a large number of operational optimization initiatives both domestically and internationally. Amid a turbulent macro environment, the company's continued strong performance highlights the potential of the e-commerce market and the company's operational strength. For a considerable period in the past, the company's valuation level mainly fluctuated around capital-market factors and did not effectively reflect the value brought by the company's growth. It is believed that as results are gradually delivered, the share price will enter a new upward channel. Estimated net profit attributable to parent for 26/27/28 is US$600 million/810 million/1.08 billion, corresponding to PE of 19.2/14.2/10.6x based on the closing price on October 16, 2026, maintaining the "Overweight" rating. Industrial's main views are as follows: The company announced operating data for Q3 2026, slightly beating expectations In Q3 2026, the company's total global parcel volume reached 9.58 billion pieces, +24.8% YoY, with average daily parcel volume reaching 104 million pieces, exceeding 100 million pieces per day for the second consecutive quarter. Of this, volume outside China accounted for approximately 32.9%, +5.6pct YoY, with global business continuing its rapid growth trend. In the first three quarters of 2026, the company completed a cumulative parcel volume of 27.09 billion pieces, +25.0% YoY, with average daily parcel volume reaching 99.2 million pieces. Southeast Asia market: business continues its high-growth trend, industry leadership position continues to be consolidated In Q3 2026, the company's parcel volume in the Southeast Asia market reached 2.89 billion pieces, +44.5% YoY, accounting for approximately 30.1% of the group's total parcel volume, with average daily parcel volume reaching 31.4 million pieces; cumulative parcel volume in the first three quarters of 2026 reached 8.41 billion pieces, +61.0% YoY. Despite oil price fluctuations and adjustments to e-commerce regulatory policies in some regions, the company's business growth has remained resilient. Benefiting from growth in regional e-commerce demand, the company continues to improve its logistics network layout and accelerate infrastructure construction and automation upgrades. As of the end of September 2026, compared with the end of 2025, the number of transfer centers in Southeast Asia increased by 10 to 131, line-haul vehicles increased by approximately 100 to 5,900, and automated sorting lines increased by 17 sets to 81 sets. As business scale expands and operational efficiency improves, the company is expected to further unleash economies of scale and strengthen its cost advantages and market competitiveness. China market: outstanding performance, significant share gains In Q3 2026, the company's parcel volume in the China market reached 6.43 billion pieces, +15.3% YoY, with YoY growth accelerating by 4.7pct compared with the previous quarter, accounting for approximately 67.1% of the group's total parcel volume, with average daily parcel volume reaching 69.9 million pieces; cumulative parcel volume in the first three quarters of 2026 reached 18.04 billion pieces, +11.5% YoY. Industry volume in Q3 2026 is expected to be +4% YoY, corresponding to the company's China market share of approximately 12.5% in Q3 2026, +1.2pct YoY, a standout performance, mainly expected to be driven by matching market demand characteristics and the company's enhanced differentiated service capabilities. With the continued advancement of anti-involution efforts, the company is expected to further improve business quality and unleash operating potential on both the revenue and profit sides. Other markets: platform cooperation and network expansion jointly drive volume growth In Q3 2026, the company's parcel volume in other markets reached 270 million pieces, +159.5% YoY, accounting for approximately 2.8% of the group's total parcel volume, with average daily parcel volume reaching 2.9 million pieces; cumulative parcel volume in the first three quarters of 2026 reached 640 million pieces, +135.2% YoY, with notable acceleration. In Q3 2026, the company further increased network construction and equipment investment in other markets. Taking transfer centers as an example, in Q3 2026 the company added 28 transfer centers, significantly higher than the 5 and 3 added in Q1 2026 and Q2 2026. External e-commerce demand growth and the company's increased internal investment form a dual driver, and the company's share is expected to rise further. Risk warnings: 1) Intensified market competition; 2) Weak market demand; 3) Oil price fluctuations; 4) Foreign exchange risk