Centaline: CCL falls 0.71% week-on-week, hitting a more than two-month low; new launches and rate hikes weigh on secondary transactions.

Yang Mingyi, Senior Associate Director of the Research Department at Centaline Property, pointed out that the latest reading of the Centaline City Leading Index (CCL) was 160.05 points, down 0.71% week-on-week. The index hit a 10-week (more than two-month) low since early August 2026, reflecting market conditions during the first week after the U.S. rate hike and the week when the first batch of 153 units at Phase II of Grand Victoria in Cheung Sha Wan sold out on the price list on September 27. Since mid-August this year, when a new project in Cheung Sha Wan launched with a sales strategy priced below secondary market levels, secondary transactions have come under notable pressure, causing the CCL's upward momentum to stall. Subsequently, multiple developers successively launched at low prices to attract buyers, diluting secondary market demand. Combined with expectations that the U.S. will raise rates again within the year and upward pressure on Hong Kong interest rates, secondary buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, transactions slowed, and property prices gradually softened. The CCL fell from this year's high of 162.16 points to the 160-point level, with 5 declines and 3 rises over the past 8 weeks, accumulating a drop of 1.30%. However, primary sales performance was ideal, and banks successively introduced mortgage incentives and raised cash rebates, providing support to the property market. In the fourth quarter, the CCL is expected to fluctuate within the 158 to 162 point range. Since HIBOR fell back in May 2025, property prices reversed course and bottomed out. Coupled with the stimulus from two local bank rate cuts last year, the CCL has accumulated a gain of 18.42% from the low of 135.16 points recorded in the week of May last year when the H rate again fell below the cap rate. The CCL is up 18.65% from the low of 134.89 points before the March 2025 Budget, up 17.81% from the low of 135.86 points before the first rate cut in September 2024, and down 16.35% from the historical high of 191.34 points in August 2021. On October 12, the first batch of 80 units at Phase 2 of One Victoria in Hung Hom sold 18 units on the price list; HSBC raised its large-sum mortgage loan rebate to 1.5%; on the 15th, the first launch of 73 units at Phase 1 of 33 Clear Water Bay in Ngau Chi Wan sold 8 units via tender in a single day; on the 17th, the first batch of 142 units at Phase 2C(2) of SIERRA SEA in Sai Sha went on sale via price list, and the second batch of 220 units at Phase I of King Sea in Yau Tong went on sale via price list. The impact of these on local secondary property prices will only begin to be reflected in the CCL to be announced in early November 2026. The Centaline City Large Housing Estates Leading Index (CCL Mass) reported 161.47 points, down 0.88% week-on-week. The CCL (Small and Medium-sized Units) reported 159.91 points, down 0.74% week-on-week. Both CCL Mass and CCL (Small and Medium-sized Units) hit 10-week (more than two-month) lows since early August 2026. The CCL (Large Units) reported 160.75 points, down 0.58% week-on-week, a 2-week low since late September 2026. Property prices across the four districts fell in three and remained flat in one. Kowloon CCL_Mass reported 159.28 points, down 1.95% week-on-week, the largest decline in 82 weeks (more than a year and a half) since mid-March 2025, ending a 2-week rising streak, and a 6-week (more than one-month) low since late August 2026. Hong Kong Island CCL_Mass reported 163.66 points, down 0.75% week-on-week, a 2-week low since late September 2026. New Territories West CCL_Mass reported 144.50 points, down marginally by 0.07% week-on-week, a 2-week low since late September 2026. New Territories East CCL_Mass reported 173.38 points, unchanged from the previous week, with no week-on-week gain or loss.