China Securities Co., Ltd.: WTI crude oil prices fluctuate downward, gold and silver trends diverge in the precious metals market.

China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the resumption of U.S.-Iran talks combined with the IEA's accelerated release of reserves has driven WTI crude oil prices downward amid volatility. The U.S. and Iran, through mediators, restarted consultations on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA has released approximately 325 million barrels of oil, easing expectations of supply tightness. With macro interest rate suppression and structural support offsetting each other, gold and silver trends diverged in the precious metals market. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained above 5.3%, suppressing gold. COMEX gold surged to $4,227/oz before falling back to around $4,140, while silver dropped over 2% and the gold-silver ratio widened to 68. Gold showed resilience supported by central bank purchases, while silver remained weak due to its industrial attributes. China Securities Co., Ltd.'s main viewpoints are as follows: Industry Overview: Judging from the relative performance of various transportation sub-sectors against the CSI 300, the transportation sector rose overall this week (October 5 - October 9). The logistics comprehensive sector rose 1.94% this week, with the raw materials supply chain services sector up 2.28%. Logistics Supply Chain: WTI crude oil prices fluctuated downward, gold and silver trends diverged in the precious metals market WTI crude oil prices fluctuated downward. The U.S. and Iran, through mediators, restarted consultations on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and IEA member states accelerated the implementation of reserve releases, having already released approximately 325 million barrels of oil. The average WTI price for this period was $91.06/barrel, down 6.08% week-on-week; as of the October 7 settlement, it was $88.28/barrel, down 16.58% from the September 15 high. The seven OPEC+ countries maintained their November production quotas unchanged, and Saudi Arabia will transfer approximately 60 million barrels of crude oil via ship-to-ship operations through Oman's Sohar Port over the next two months. Expectations of supply tightness have eased, but the U.S. military is assessing the deployment of additional aircraft carriers, and Iran plans to close part of the strait's shipping lanes. Geopolitical uncertainties remain, and oil prices may continue to fluctuate within a range. Gold and silver trends diverged in the precious metals market. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained above 5.3%, with real interest rates suppressing non-yielding gold. COMEX gold surged to $4,227/oz before falling back to around $4,140, while silver dropped over 2% on October 7, and the gold-silver ratio widened to 68. A World Gold Council survey shows that 45% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months, and 89% expect global official reserves to continue rising. Gold showed resilience supported by central bank purchases, while silver remained weak due to its industrial attributes. After the holiday, the market may continue to see a balance between interest rates and structural demand. Risk Warnings: Global trade risks under the continued escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations, logistics prices subject to policy and regulatory changes, and significant increases in fuel costs.