BOCI: China's Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicle export tax rebate rate will be reduced from 13% to 9%; export growth is expected to slow.

BOCI released a research report stating that China's Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies for certain products, with the VAT export tax rebate rate for new energy vehicles to be reduced from 13% to 9%, effective April 1, 2027. The bank believes this move continues the direction of the "new three" categoriessolar panels and batteriesgradually exiting policy support and shifting toward market-driven growth. The bank noted that the reduction for new energy vehicles from 13% to 9% matches the magnitude of the first-round adjustments for solar panels and batteries, but the transition period is more lenient, giving automakers nearly six months to prepare. This helps them readjust export pricing, optimize order structures, and localize production capacity, easing short-term pressure. The adjustment covers both passenger and commercial new energy vehicles, broader than the market's earlier expectation of "passenger vehicles first"; fuel vehicles are not included in the rebate reduction, helping ease pressure on traditional automakers. The bank expects new energy vehicle export growth to slow rather than decline in absolute terms; if automakers fully absorb the costs themselves, export gross margins will come under pressure. In the medium term, lower rebates will also push automakers to shift from exporting China-made vehicles to overseas production and localization. Leaders with stronger competitiveness, better cost control, and superior overseas manufacturing capabilities will adapt more easily, and industry consolidation may accelerate. By export structure, CHERY AUTO (09973), GEELY AUTO (00175), and Great Wall Motor (02333) are relatively buffered due to their higher share of fuel vehicles and hybrids; pure new energy exporters such as XPeng-W (09868) face more direct pressure, though leaders can still mitigate the impact through retail repricing, supply chain cost-sharing, and accelerating overseas plant construction.