Centaline: Hong Kong's high-end residential transactions sizzle in first three quarters; private home sales above HK$20 million hit a 5-year high

Yang Mingyi, Senior Associate Director of the Research Department at Centaline Property, noted that in the first three quarters of 2026, sales registrations for private residential properties (including primary and secondary) valued at over HK$20 million in Hong Kong recorded 3,185 transactions, with a total value of HK$156.474 billion. The transaction count just surpassed the full-year 2025 figure of 3,159, up 0.8%, hitting a 5-year high since 2021, while the amount reached 96.2% of last year's full-year total of HK$162.658 billion, reflecting the overall hot high-end residential transaction market. Among them, primary market recorded 1,555 transactions and HK$83.948 billion, reaching 92.8% and 88.2% of last year's 1,675 transactions and HK$95.178 billion; secondary market recorded 1,630 transactions and HK$72.526 billion, already surpassing last year's 1,484 transactions and HK$67.480 billion, up 9.8% and 7.5%, indicating that secondary high-end residential performance was better this year. By quarter, in Q3, sales of private residential properties (including primary and secondary) valued at over HK$20 million recorded 813 transactions and HK$45.156 billion, down 41.3% and 29.0% respectively from Q2's 1,385 transactions and HK$63.619 billion. The transaction count was a 5-quarter low since Q2 2025, and the amount was a 4-quarter low since Q3 2025. Affected by the crackdown on illegal cross-border investment at the end of May, Hong Kong stocks retreated, buyers became more cautious, and overall high-end residential transactions slowed. In the primary market, Q3 2026 primary private residential transactions above HK$20 million recorded 360 transactions and HK$24.478 billion, down 49.7% and 26.2% quarter-on-quarter. The transaction count was a 6-quarter low since Q1 2025, and the amount was a 4-quarter low since Q3 2025. This reflects developers focusing on selling projects below HK$20 million, with the market lacking large high-end new project launches, dragging down primary high-end residential transactions significantly. Among them, primary transactions between HK$20.01 million and HK$30 million fell the most, nearly 60%, recording 113 transactions and HK$2.720 billion in Q3, down 58.8% and 59.1% quarter-on-quarter. Transactions between HK$30.01 million and HK$50 million recorded 119 transactions and HK$4.444 billion, down 54.4% and 56.1% quarter-on-quarter. Transactions above HK$50 million fell the least, recording 128 transactions and HK$17.315 billion, down 28.9% and up 5.6% quarter-on-quarter. In Q3 2026, the new project with the most primary transaction registrations above HK$20 million was Ho Man Tin's Grand Homm, recording 28 transactions with a total value of HK$858 million. Next was Cullinan Sky Phase 2, recording 19 transactions with a total value of HK$630 million. Mid-Levels Borrett Road 21 (including Phase 1 and Phase 2 In One) and Wong Chuk Hang Station South Land Phase 4A and 4B Sea Crown series each recorded 17 transactions, tied for third place, with total values of HK$2.945 billion and HK$811 million respectively. In the secondary market, Q3 2026 secondary private residential transactions above HK$20 million recorded 453 transactions and HK$20.678 billion, down 32.4% and 32.1% quarter-on-quarter. Both the transaction count and amount were 4-quarter lows since Q3 2025. The property market was shrouded in a wait-and-see atmosphere, with prices adjusting sideways, causing secondary high-end residential transactions to soften in Q3. As secondary transactions shrank less than primary, the secondary transaction proportion returned to over 50% in Q3, recording 56%, the highest in nearly six quarters. Among them, secondary transactions between HK$20.01 million and HK$30 million and between HK$30.01 million and HK$50 million saw more obvious declines, both falling over 30%. Q3 recorded 226 and 145 transactions respectively, down 35.4% and 31.3% quarter-on-quarter; amounts recorded HK$5.540 billion and HK$5.511 billion, down 34.9% and 30.4% quarter-on-quarter. However, transactions above HK$50 million during the same period recorded 82 transactions and HK$9.627 billion, down only 24.8% and 31.4% quarter-on-quarter. In Q3 this year, the estate with the most secondary transaction registrations above HK$20 million was West Mid-Levels' Belcher's Hill, recording 16 transactions with a total value of HK$460 million. Nam Cheong Station's Cullinan West recorded 14 transactions, ranking second, with a total value of HK$503 million. Pok Fu Lam's Residence Bel-Air recorded 12 transactions, ranking third, with a total value of HK$466 million.