New Stock Analysis | Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Nears Hong Kong Listing: Strong Earnings Recovery, Overseas Capacity Opens a Second Growth Curve

Under the global energy transition and the wave of transportation electrification, the lithium-ion battery materials industry has experienced explosive growth over the past few years, while also enduring the resulting overcapacity and sharp price fluctuations. As the leading enterprise ranked first globally in electrolyte shipments for ten consecutive years, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology") has recently passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing. This A-share listed company, which listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as early as 2014, is now just one step away from listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If successfully listed, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology will form an "A+H" dual capital platform structure, opening new financing channels for its global capacity layout and R&D investment. Industry demand favorable in the long term, competitive landscape remains intense From an industry fundamentals perspective, the track in which Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology operates has a clear long-term growth logic. According to China Insights Consultancy data, the global lithium battery market size is expected to grow from 2,257.0 GWh in 2025 to 6,284.3 GWh in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.7%; among this, global electrolyte shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.2% to 5.4673 million tonnes over the same period, with lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) and lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide (LiFSI) growing at 19.1% and 40.3%, respectively. As the three major downstream application scenarios of power batteries, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics continue to expand, combined with the development of emerging fields such as eVTOL, humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, and ship electrification, long-term demand support is provided for key materials such as electrolytes and cathode materials. At the same time, the industrialization of solid-state batteries is also accelerating, with the global solid-state electrolyte market size expected to grow from approximately RMB 10 billion in 2030 to approximately RMB 116 billion in 2040, which also opens up new growth space for material enterprises with technological reserves. From a competitive landscape perspective, the electrolyte industry has a high degree of concentration. In 2025, the top five global electrolyte suppliers together accounted for approximately 75.5% of market share, with Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology ranking first with a 36.0% share; in the two core solute areas of LiPF6 and LiFSI, its global shipment shares reached 38.2% and 47.2% respectively, also ranking first. In the cathode precursor iron phosphate (FePO4) area, the company ranked fifth globally with a 3.6% share; in the lithium battery PACK structural adhesive area, it ranked third globally with a 9.7% share. This multi-point leading position not only reflects the company's advantages in vertical integration and R&D platforms, but also means its operating performance is highly tied to the overall industry prosperity. However, the other side of favorable long-term demand is the severe price fluctuations the industry has experienced in recent years. From 2020 to 2022, driven by surging downstream demand and shortages in raw material supply such as lithium carbonate, electrolyte prices once rose sharply; but since 2023, upstream capacity has been released in a concentrated manner, with supply growth exceeding downstream demand growth, and combined with intensifying market competition, electrolyte and core raw material prices have declined significantly. Vertical integration builds a cost moat According to the prospectus, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology's business is mainly divided into two major segments: lithium-ion battery materials and daily chemical materials and specialty chemicals. Among these, lithium-ion battery materials are the absolute core, contributing approximately 90% of revenue during the reporting period, with products covering electrolytes and their core materials, cathode materials, lithium battery adhesives, and lithium carbonate, etc. Daily chemical materials and specialty chemicals include carbomer, surfactants, silicone oil, cationic conditioning agents, etc. The company's most core competitive barrier lies in deep vertical integration. As of June 30, 2026, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology's self-supply ratios for LiPF6, LiFSI, DTD additives, and high-purity lithium carbonate reached 99.3%, 97.1%, 80.8%, and 100.0% respectively, placing it at a leading level in the industry. This self-supply capability not only ensures stable supply of key raw materials, but also significantly weakens the impact of external procurement cost fluctuations during price downturns. The company was the first to achieve industrial production of liquid LiPF6 and liquid LiFSI, adopting a continuous solvent process. According to China Insights Consultancy data, the unit investment cost of liquid LiPF6 is approximately 40% of the solid-state method, with power consumption reduced by approximately 65%. In the lithium iron phosphate cathode material segment, the company's proprietary rotary kiln sintering process reduces energy consumption by more than 48% compared with the traditional roller hearth kiln process. In addition, the company has built an internal circular economy system, recovering sulfuric acid generated during LiPF6 production for use in iron phosphate production, and collecting and purifying hydrogen chloride tail gas, a byproduct of LiFSI production, for reuse, further lowering comprehensive costs. It is understood that the average selling price of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology's electrolytes and core materials plummeted 45.0% from RMB 32,482 per tonne in 2023 to RMB 17,862 in 2024, and further declined to RMB 16,885 in 2025. It was not until the end of 2025 that prices gradually rebounded, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and rising costs of key raw materials. In the first half of 2026, the average selling price recovered to RMB 26,283 per tonne, an increase of 61.2% compared with RMB 16,306 in the same period of 2025. Such severe price fluctuations directly affected the revenue and profit performance of all participants in the industry, and also constitute the core background for understanding changes in Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology's financial data. Performance significantly repaired since the first half of the year This price cycle is particularly directly reflected in the company's revenue and profit. From 2023 to 2025, the company's revenue was RMB 15.405 billion, RMB 12.518 billion, and RMB 16.650 billion respectively, showing a "V-shaped" trend; net profit over the same period was RMB 1.842 billion, RMB 478 million, and RMB 1.344 billion respectively, with fluctuation ranges far greater than revenue. Among these, 2024 became the low point in performance, mainly because the average selling price of electrolytes and core materials fell sharply by 45.0% year-on-year. Although sales volume grew from 405,000 tonnes to 537,000 tonnes, it still could not offset the impact of price declines on revenue. In 2025, as sales volume further increased to 773,000 tonnes, a growth of 43.9%, revenue returned to a growth trajectory, but the average selling price still declined somewhat to RMB 16,885 per tonne, which made the recovery of net profit during the period depend more on sales expansion and cost control rather than price recovery. Entering the first half of 2026, the company's performance showed significant repair. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, revenue reached RMB 14.710 billion, an increase of 109.3% compared with RMB 7.029 billion in the same period of 2025; gross profit was RMB 4.935 billion, an increase of 275.7% compared with RMB 1.314 billion in the same period of 2025; gross margin rose significantly from 18.7% to 33.5%. Net profit jumped from RMB 265 million in the same period last year to RMB 2.847 billion. The core DRIVE behind this improvement lies in: rapid growth in downstream energy storage installations and new energy vehicle demand, exceeding the pace of industry capacity expansion, leading to a phased supply-demand imbalance and driving a significant rebound in electrolyte and LiPF6 product prices. The average selling price of electrolytes and core materials rose from RMB 16,306 per tonne in the first half of 2025 to RMB 26,283 in the first half of 2026, while sales volume also increased from 337,000 tonnes to 462,000 tonnes, with both volume and price rising. In terms of customer structure, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology covers the world's leading battery manufacturers and automakers. Among them, in 2025, 8 of the world's top ten power battery manufacturers, all of the top ten energy storage battery manufacturers, and 9 of the top ten consumer battery manufacturers have become its customers or adopted the company's products in their supply chains. However, this deep binding also brings the hidden concern of relatively high customer concentrationduring the reporting period, the revenue contribution proportions of the top five customers were 71.2%, 58.7%, 58.5%, and 64.4% respectively, among which the largest customer accounted for 52.7%, 40.0%, 36.1%, and 42.9% respectively. Globalization layout is an important direction of the company's current strategy. As of June 30, 2026, the company had 17 operating production bases in China and had commissioned four processing suppliers in the United States, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Thailand. In June 2025, the company signed an investment agreement with the Moroccan government, planning to invest approximately USD 280 million to build an integrated base with an annual output of 150,000 tonnes of electrolytes and core materials, expected to be completed by the end of 2028; at the same time, the company established a joint venture with a U.S. industrial group in early 2025, planning to build a production base in Texas with an annual output of 200,000 tonnes of electrolytes. The implementation of overseas capacity is regarded as a key measure to get closer to European and American customers and reduce logistics costs and trade risks. Once the Hong Kong stock listing is successfully completed, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology will form an "A+H" dual capital platform, providing key funding support for the construction of its two major overseas bases in Morocco and the United States. The company's global leading position in the electrolyte field, deep self-supply capability for key raw materials, and vertical integration and circular economy model together constitute a rare cost moat in the industry. The significant repair in performance in the first half of 2026 fully verified its profit elasticity under improved supply-demand dynamics. As global lithium battery demand continues to expand and new technology reserves such as solid-state electrolytes gradually materialize, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology is expected to leverage its international capacity layout to get closer to European and American customers and open up new growth space from its position as a global electrolyte leader.