"Big Short" Burry shifts to Nasdaq and semiconductor ETF put options, warns of a peak within 9 months.

Michael Burry, the investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis by accurately identifying major flaws in the U.S. subprime mortgage market, has concentrated most of his bearish bets into put options on the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), expecting the market could peak within the next nine months. In his latest Substack blog post published last Sunday, Burry said he has converted most of his previous short positions into options, with put options on the Nasdaq 100 and VanEck Semiconductor ETF now accounting for nearly all of his short exposure. Put options give investors the right to sell a stock or index at a predetermined price before a specified date, allowing them to profit if prices fall. **Burry Concentrates Bearish Tech Bets** Burry said his Nasdaq 100 put options expire in April 2027, noting that the position is relatively cheap in a low-volatility environment and aligns with his investment timeline. "I think we are in the 0-to-9 month window before a major top," Burry wrote, adding that the final months of a bull market could be highly volatile as major indexes break to new highs. Burry said the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is concentrated in some of the market's hottest and most overextended semiconductor stocks, making it an attractive vehicle for his bearish bets. According to Burry, Nvidia accounts for 19.6% of the ETF, TSMC 9.3%, and AMD 5.6%. Broadcom, Micron Technology, Marvell Technology, and Applied Materials each hold positions of about 5%. "Currently, nearly all of my short positions are expressed through VanEck Semiconductor ETF and Nasdaq 100 Index put options," he wrote. Burry's VanEck Semiconductor ETF put options expire in June 2027 and are also about 20% out of the money. He expects these options to rise significantly in value before the underlying ETF or Nasdaq 100 Index falls 20%. **Burry's Other Bearish Bets Remain** Burry said he continues to hold long-term put options on Oracle and Palantir Technologies. He has closed other short positions, transferring them into Nasdaq 100 Index and VanEck Semiconductor ETF put options. Regarding Palantir, Burry acknowledged the stock recently closed at an all-time high and could rise further. According to his blog post, the stock has doubled since he closed half of his short position in June, after which he exited the remaining position when he shifted to put options. He also said he "bought several series of preferred shares and sold" his common stock positions in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to realize full tax losses on the mortgage "duo." On Stocktwits, retail sentiment on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is "bearish," while sentiment on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ), which tracks Nasdaq 100 stocks, is "bullish." Sentiment on Oracle is "bearish," while Palantir is "extremely bullish." Year to date, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is up more than 67%, Palantir is up 17.6%, and Oracle is down 26.5%.