Ricacorp: Hong Kong second-hand private residential transactions total 8,662 in Q3, a six-quarter low

Ricacorp Properties' Head of Research, Chen Haichao, said that the second-hand private residential market in Q3 2026 retreated after three consecutive quarters of gains, with transaction registrations plunging from a high level. Looking ahead to Q4, as the economy remains stable and market sentiment shows resilience after hovering at low levels, transactions are expected to stabilize and stop falling, with full-year performance set to be the best in nearly five years. According to the latest data from the Land Registry, a total of 8,662 second-hand private residential sale and purchase registrations were recorded across Hong Kong in Q3 2026, down about 37% from 13,743 in Q2, marking a six-quarter low. Total transaction value for the quarter was HK$72.653 billion (Hong Kong dollars, same below), also down about 37% quarter-on-quarter. The average price per transaction in Q3 this year was about HK$8.3875 million, up slightly by about 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and a new high in nearly 11 quarters, reflecting that average transaction prices remained stable amid the adjustment in transaction volume. By property price, all nine price brackets recorded declines in Q3 2026. The super-luxury bracket above HK$100 million saw the largest drop, with only 18 registrations in the quarter, plunging 45% quarter-on-quarter; next was the HK$10.01 million to HK$12 million bracket, which recorded 419 registrations, down 43% quarter-on-quarter. The bracket with the highest number of registrations was the low-price segment at HK$4 million or below, with a total of 2,770 registrations, but it also fell 30% quarter-on-quarter. Total registration value across all districts also fell 37% quarter-on-quarter, with Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, and the New Territories recording HK$24.762 billion, HK$21.826 billion, and HK$26.064 billion respectively. By district, among the ten most active districts for transactions, registration volumes also declined across the board in Q3. Although Tseung Kwan O recorded a 45% quarter-on-quarter drop in registrations to 486, it still held onto the top spot; Mong Kok/Yau Ma Tei followed with 476 registrations, down 41% quarter-on-quarter; Yuen Long recorded 468, down 37% quarter-on-quarter. The district with the most significant decline was To Kwa Wan, which recorded 315 registrations in the quarter, plunging 52% quarter-on-quarter. By estate, the top ten most active estates recorded a combined 710 sale and purchase registrations in Q3 this year, down 40% quarter-on-quarter. The estates with the largest declines in registrations during the quarter were LOHAS Park and Taikoo Shing, which recorded 168 and 57 registrations respectively, both down 50% quarter-on-quarter; Cullinan West also fell 49%, recording only 43 registrations. Although LOHAS Park's registrations came under pressure, it still topped Discovery Bay's 104 registrations with 168, retaining its position as the best-selling estate in Q3. As for the remaining estates such as Kingswood Villas, Mei Foo Sun Chuen, City One Shatin, Whampoa Garden, NOVO LAND, and South Horizons, quarter-on-quarter registration volumes also generally recorded declines ranging from 20% to nearly 40%. Chen Haichao noted that, summarizing the first three quarters of this year, second-hand private residential registrations have accumulated to 34,346, the strongest for the same period in nearly five years, with total transaction value reaching HK$280.073 billion, also a new high for the same period in nearly five years. Looking ahead to Q4, if there are an average of 3,000 registrations per month, the entire Q4 is expected to reach 9,000. With the market warming up in Q4 and expectations that purchasing power will re-enter the market, full-year second-hand private residential sale and purchase registrations are expected to reach 43,346, set to hit a five-year high since 2022 and break through the 40,000 level for the first time in the period, poised to create the strongest second-hand market conditions in recent years.