GF SEC: Leaders in the food and beverage industry remain steady, while some individual stocks continue to post high growth.

GF SEC released a research report stating that baijiu sell-through during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to remain under pressure, and most baijiu companies' third-quarter results are expected to remain under pressure. After a four-year adjustment period, the baijiu sector is expected to usher in a new round of development in 2026. In mass consumer goods, some sub-tracks had already stabilized ahead of others in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, industry average selling prices are expected to rise moderately, and the bank is bullish on stock-specific opportunities brought by new products and new channels. GF SEC's main views are as follows: Baijiu: Cautious stocking for peak season, industry still in destocking cycle 26Q3 ushers in the peak stocking season for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. Terminal feedback shows relatively weak stocking willingness. Banquet scenarios during the two festivals are relatively rigid demand, but government and business consumption scenarios are still recovering slowly, and baijiu sell-through during the two festivals is expected to remain under pressure. At this stage, most liquor companies mainly aim to proactively destock and keep channels healthy and sound, and have not forced channel stuffing. The bank expects most baijiu companies' third-quarter results to remain under pressure, and expects Kweichow Moutai, Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock, Anhui Yingjiagongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor to outperform the industry in third-quarter revenue growth. Beer: Industry demand remains sluggish, Beijing Yanjing Brewery leads 26Q3 weather remained rainy and disrupted industry demand. Beer industry output declined year over year by a wider margin than in Q2. Thanks to reform dividends and the continued rapid growth of Yanjing U8, Beijing Yanjing Brewery outperformed the industry. Beverages and dairy: Beverage leaders steady, leading dairy companies relatively better Among beverage companies, Eastroc Beverage's 26Q3 revenue performance is expected to continue the Q2 trend, while profit is expected to benefit from the cost dividend brought by earlier PET price locking. Among dairy companies, Yili was relatively active in stocking for the two festivals, and ambient liquid milk performance is expected to be better than the industry average. New Hope Dairy's 26Q3 profitability is expected to improve, and Shanghai Milkground Food Tech's 26Q3 cheese main business is expected to continue good growth. Snack retail chains: Value retail channels strong, Seamild relatively better on the manufacturing side In snack value retail, Fujian Wanchen Food Group continued a relatively fast pace of store openings in 26Q3, with strong profitability under scale effects. Among leisure food companies, Yanker Shop Food and YouYou Foods benefited from volume growth in value retail and Sam's Club channels, continuing relatively fast revenue growth. Guilin Seamild Foods' oat main business remained steady and, combined with contributions from new products, growth is expected to accelerate. Chacha Food benefited from the sunflower seed cost dividend, with relatively large profit elasticity. Yajin and Jinzai Food Group had steady revenue, but profitability may grow slower than revenue due to cost, base, and mix effects. Condiments: Overall demand lackluster, watch cost changes Haitian, as the leader, maintained steady growth. Second-tier brands continued to explore new growth points in products and channels, while Zhongju and Qianhe continued their recovery trend. Increasing concentration in the condiment industry remains the medium-term main theme. Leaders have stable management systems, comprehensive channel coverage, and faster new product launches, and their market share is expected to continue rising. Frozen food: Peak-season stocking recovers, leaders lead price increases Accelerated stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak season drove sell-through to improve sequentially, and low-price competition in the industry decreased somewhat. At the same time, against the backdrop of continuously rising surimi prices, Anjoy was the first to issue a price adjustment letter to start price transmission. Market share is expected to accelerate toward leaders, which is also expected to lead the industry toward more healthy development. Health products: Top players becoming more concentrated, track performance diverging 26Q3 industry scale is expected to continue the growth trend of 26H1. The competitive advantages of top and upper-mid-tier brands strengthened, with sales and share showing an upward trend. The bank believes that under the industry's trend of stricter regulation, small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to be eliminated, and top brands and contract manufacturers are expected to capture larger shares. Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech's revenue is expected to maintain relatively good growth. Risk warning. Forward-looking estimates have limitations, macroeconomic conditions may fall short of expectations, consumption recovery may fall short of expectations, and food safety issues.