CPCA: Retail sales in China's passenger vehicle new energy market from September 1 to 30 totaled 1.141 million units, down 12% year-on-year.

On October 10, the CPCA released its auto market scan (September 28-30, 2026). From September 1-30, national passenger vehicle retail sales totaled 1.702 million units, down 24% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 10% from the previous month. Year-to-date cumulative passenger vehicle retail sales reached 13.418 million units, down 21% year-on-year. From September 1-30, national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume was 2.528 million units, down 10% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 7% from the previous month. Year-to-date cumulative wholesale volume reached 19.711 million units, down 6% year-on-year. Preliminary statistics: From September 1-30, national passenger vehicle new energy market retail sales totaled 1.141 million units, down 12% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 14% from the previous month. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 7.816 million units, down 12% year-on-year. From September 1-30, national passenger vehicle manufacturer new energy wholesale volume was 1.672 million units, up 11% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 11% from the previous month. Year-to-date cumulative wholesale volume reached 11.45 million units, up 9% year-on-year. Penetration rate: From September 1-30, the national passenger vehicle new energy market retail penetration rate was 67.1%; from September 1-30, the national passenger vehicle new energy manufacturer wholesale penetration rate was 66.1%. Production: In the first three weeks of September, national pure fuel light vehicle production was 330,000 units, down 52% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 47% from the previous month. In the first three weeks of September, hybrid and plug-in hybrid total production was 265,000 units, down 23% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 21% from the previous month. (This data section has not been updated this week.) 2026 September National Passenger Vehicle Market Retail Sales Trend In the first week of September, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 35,000 units, down 19% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and down 1% from the previous month. In the second week of September, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 44,000 units, down 26% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 8% from the previous month. In the third week of September, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 52,000 units, down 19% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 14% from the previous month. In the fourth week of September, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 54,000 units, down 42% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and down 13% from the previous month. In the fifth week of September, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 148,000 units, down 4% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 103% from the previous month. Preliminary statistics: From September 1-30, national passenger vehicle market retail sales totaled 1.702 million units, down 24% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 10% from the previous month. Year-to-date cumulative passenger vehicle retail sales reached 13.418 million units, down 21% year-on-year. In September, the market entered the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and terminal foot traffic is expected to continue recovering. At the macro level, the August manufacturing PMI rebounded month-on-month and CPI remained stable, with the economy showing operating characteristics of "marginal demand recovery and overall stabilization at a low level," providing bottom support for the auto market recovery. However, September faces an ultra-high base from the same period last year in September 2025, a rush to buy before subsidies were suspended in some regions pushed monthly retail sales to a historic peak, and the high-base effect will further suppress this September's recovery. Last week was the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and the staggered holiday had a significant impact on retail sales, so the 42% year-on-year decline in retail sales is normal. This week has only 3 days, one day fewer than August, and falls at the end of the quarter, so fifth-week data is relatively strong. In September, the passenger vehicle market entered the traditional sales peak season, with local consumption promotion policies and automaker promotional activities continuing, benefiting the release of consumer demand. New products launched earlier continued to ramp up, and new vehicles boosted showroom traffic and supported market performance. In previous years, "Golden September" saw broad market gains, with first-time purchases and trade-in purchases both released, and both fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles able to capture incremental growth. This year is a stock-market game of zero-sum shifts, with incremental growth basically concentrated in new energy, while fuel vehicles appear to have no new demand. Since the end of July, cumulative gasoline price increases during the year have exceeded 830 yuan/ton, while the appeal of new electric vehicle products has grown stronger, continuously suppressing willingness to consume fuel vehicles. Upstream raw material prices have retreated somewhat, and with the industry's "anti-involution" consensus gradually deepening, upstream profits have surged. Price pressure is being transmitted from upstream to the vehicle manufacturing end, and contradictions between upstream and downstream in the industry are becoming increasingly sharp. Although inventory is not high, dealer operating pressure continues to increase. 2026 September National Passenger Vehicle Manufacturer Wholesale Sales Trend In the first week of September, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 35,000 units, down 21% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 13% from the previous month. In the second week of September, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 49,000 units, down 23% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 28% from the previous month. In the third week of September, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 65,000 units, down 13% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 21% from the previous month. In the fourth week of September, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 67,000 units, down 46% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and down 45% from the previous month. In the fifth week of September, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 351,000 units, up 51% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 110% from the previous month. Preliminary statistics: From September 1-30, national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume was 2.528 million units, down 10% year-on-year compared with the same period last September and up 7% from the previous month. Year-to-date cumulative wholesale volume reached 19.711 million units, down 6% year-on-year. The share of the pie that fuel vehicles could capture during the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" in previous years will be further compressed this year by high oil prices. Due to the continued sharp decline in fuel vehicle retail sales, domestic fuel vehicle production fell 52% in the first three weeks of September (data for the past two weeks has not been updated), so manufacturer sales were generally sluggish, and fuel vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume fell 41% in September. Most new energy vehicle brands currently lack hot-selling models, but manufacturers still need a stable production pace. As a huge industrial chain system, it is impossible to simply schedule production according to orders; production and sales targets must also be considered. Sales and direct-operated order sales for most manufacturers have already shifted to target-based sales. Even without a backlog of orders, some models' sales targets must still be achieved, so manufacturer direct-operated retail sales improved slightly in the first three weeks, and the new energy penetration rate was abnormally high. This week is the end of the quarter after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and the staggered holiday has a significant impact on production and sales, so the 51% year-on-year increase in manufacturer sales is also normal. From January-August 2026, China accounted for 32% of the world's auto share According to statistics from the Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles, global automobile production has continued to grow, reaching 96.38 million units in 2025, up 6% from 91.77 million units in 2024, with China accounting for 35.4% of world production. Global automobile sales have continued to grow, reaching 96.89 million units in 2025, up 6%, with China accounting for 35.4% of world sales. From January-August 2026, cumulative world automobile sales reached 63.43 million units, up 2% year-on-year. In August alone, sales were 7.719 million units, up 1% year-on-year and down 4.9% month-on-month, indicating weak momentum in the global auto market. From January-August 2026, cumulative global automobile sales were 63.43 million units. By country, China's sales were 20.31 million units, with a 32.0% share, a clear decline from 35.4% in 2025. U.S. sales were 10.94 million units, with a 17.2% share, a slight decline. India performed brightly, with its share rising to 6.7%, becoming a growth highlight. Looking at share changes over the years, China's global share continued to rise from 2022 to 2025, reaching a high in 2025. The shares of major European countries were generally stable with a slight decline, while emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia maintained stable shares. The decline in China's market sales in the first eight months of 2026 was the core reason for the change in global share. The rapid growth of emerging markets such as India partly offset the growth pressure from the Chinese and U.S. markets and supported the global auto market in maintaining slight positive growth. Global automobile sales grew 2% from January-August 2026, with India's automobile market sales up 20%, Thailand's automobile market up 16%, Russia's market sales up 6%, and Vietnam up 28%. Emerging markets drove relatively good market performance. The East is rising while the West is falling. Apart from Toyota, Hyundai-Kia, Suzuki, and Tata, other international brands saw relatively large share declines in 2026. Compared with 2019, Chinese independent brands comprehensively raised their world share. Geely, BYD Company Limited, Chery, SAIC, Changan, and other independent brands performed strongly. The trend of global electrification has also led some established international automakers to gradually weaken. Apart from favorable factors such as Suzuki's strong position in the Indian market, the shares of other European and American international brands declined comprehensively and significantly. January-August 2026 World New Energy Vehicle Analysis From January-August 2026, world automobile sales reached 63.43 million units, and new energy vehicles reached 15.7 million units, up 15% year-on-year. In August alone, new energy vehicle sales were 2.23 million units, up 16%, with growth returning to the historical normal level. From January-August 2026, the new energy vehicle share reached 24.5%, of which pure electric vehicles accounted for 17.3%, plug-in hybrids reached 7.5% of the automobile mix, and hybrids performed excellently at 8%. In 2025, U.S. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation sales were 1.72 million units, down 2%, a relatively low growth rate compared with recent years. Due to high tariffs and price increases from the cancellation of new energy subsidies, U.S. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicle sales in August 2026 were 110,000 units, down 44% year-on-year, and from January-August, U.S. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicle sales were 820,000 units, down 31%. European new energy passenger vehicle sales in 2025 were 3.86 million units, an increase of 960,000 units from the same period last year, up 33%. Preliminary statistics show European new energy passenger vehicle sales in August were 320,000 units, up 33% year-on-year, and from January-August 2026 were 3.12 million units, up 34% year-on-year. The global new energy vehicle penetration rate has generally shown a rapid upward trend, reaching 13.1% in 2022, 15.9% in 2023, 19.5% in 2024, and 23.6% in 2025. In 2026, the world new energy vehicle penetration rate was 24.7%, among which Germany reached 33.4%, Norway reached 80%, and the UK 36%, while the U.S. had only 7% and Japan only 4%, showing that the level of global new energy development is extremely uneven. From January-August 2026, China's Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation passenger vehicle world share reached 62%. From July-August 2026, it reached a relatively good level of 65.3%. Looking at sales share over the years, China's BYD Company Limited Auto leads the world, GEELY AUTO has risen rapidly, and Tesla has not performed strongly, falling to third place. Recently, SAIC Passenger Vehicle and SAIC-GM-Wuling, two independent automakers, have performed relatively well overseas. In 2026, China's share of the world pure electric vehicle market was 59%. Due to early-year factors, China's pure electric vehicle performance was temporarily poor, reaching 62% in the third quarter. In 2026, China's share of the world plug-in hybrid market reached a high level of 71%, reaching 74% in August, showing China's extremely strong performance in the world plug-in hybrid market. In 2025, the overseas market sales share of independent new energy passenger vehicles reached 15.8%, up 6.2 percentage points. In 2026, the overseas market sales share of independent new energy passenger vehicles rose sharply, reaching 29% in August, a further leap of 14 percentage points. January-August 2026 Automobile Industry Profit Margin 3.6% From January-August, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating revenue of 93.09 trillion yuan, up 6.6% year-on-year; operating costs were 79.19 trillion yuan, up 6.1%; the operating revenue profit margin was 5.66%, up 0.44 percentage points year-on-year. From January-August 2026, profits in the electronics industry driven by artificial intelligence grew 1.1-fold, and upstream raw material industry profits grew rapidly, greatly promoting overall industry profit improvement. The automobile industry faces the dual pressure of rising costs and weak demand, and its profit performance was relatively poor. In August 2026, automobile production was 2.70 million units, sales revenue was 928.1 billion yuan, up 4.2%, costs were 831.3 billion yuan, up 5.3%, profit was 37.1 billion yuan, up 24%, and the sales profit margin was 4%. From January-August 2026, automobile production was 20.31 million units, down 3% year-on-year, revenue was 7,006.2 billion yuan, up 2.9%, costs were 6,237.0 billion yuan, up 4%, profit was 253.4 billion yuan, down 16%, and the sales profit margin was 3.6%. In 2026, various regions vigorously promoted the implementation of the "two new" policies, gradually and effectively releasing domestic demand vitality, but the improvement in automobile industry efficiency has clearly lagged other consumer goods. As the national anti-involution work continues to advance, the automobile industry is severely squeezed by upstream, price problems are serious, oil prices have surged, and profits in nonferrous metals and semiconductors have soared. End users are strongly wait-and-see in car purchases, pressure on automaker operations continues to increase, and high-quality development is facing a huge upstream shock. Looking at the sales profit margin trend over the years, the automobile industry's profit performance was already weak in 2024, with a sales profit margin of only 4.3%, a sharp decline from the historical normal level. In 2025, the industry sales profit margin fell to 4.1%. From January-August 2026, the industry sales profit margin further fell to 3.6%, and was 4% in August, better than the lowest monthly performance of 1.8% in December 2025. August is generally a time of relatively low profit margin in past years. This August, fuel vehicle production improved slightly, but profit pressure remains enormous. Analysis of the Impact of Marriage Age and Aging on the Auto Market in 2025 On September 30, the Ministry of Civil Affairs released the "2025 Civil Affairs Development Statistical Bulletin." In 2025, 6.765 million couples registered marriages in accordance with the law throughout the year, up 10.8% from the previous year, and the marriage rate was 4.8, up 0.5 thousandths of a percentage point from the previous year. From the perspective of the marriage age structure, the number of people marrying in 2025 was 13.53 million, of which 1.73 million were aged 20-24, accounting for 13%; 4.99 million were aged 25-29, accounting for 37%; 2.90 million were aged 30-34, accounting for 21%; 1.56 million were aged 35-39, accounting for 12%; and 2.35 million were aged 40 and above, accounting for 17%. As of the end of 2025, the national population aged 60 and above was 323.38 million, accounting for 23.0% of the total population, of which the population aged 65 and above was 223.65 million, accounting for 15.9% of the total population. The rebound in marriages in 2025 is a temporary positive signal for the auto market, but the three major trends of a lower central level of total marriages, later marriage age, and accelerated aging are irreversible. The growth momentum of the auto market is shifting from "newlywed first purchases" to "trade-in and additional purchases + new energy upgrades + age-friendly mobility." Automakers should seize the intelligent and electrified needs of the main 25-35 age marriage group, while actively age-friendly products and mobility services, in order to win incremental growth amid demographic structural changes. We look forward to policy support for the development of economical electric vehicles, encouraging miniaturization, and giving more subsidies to low-priced cars.