Before the midterm elections, Trump urgently moves to suppress diesel prices and turns to Russia to "save the day," but analysts pour cold water on the idea: a drop in the bucket.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that Russia has agreed to supply diesel to the United States and global markets in a bid to push down fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections, though analysts said the volume is likely too small to significantly improve U.S. diesel supply. In a social media post, Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to "immediately" release more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States and global markets, with another 500,000 tons in November and a further 1 million tons after that. He also mentioned that, depending on the operating conditions of Russian refineries, Russia would deliver an additional 3 million tons of diesel "within a short period of time." Russia measures diesel in tons, so the first delivery of 300,000 tons equates to 2.25 million barrels; for reference, U.S. diesel exports run at 1.5 million barrels per day. After the first delivery, the 500,000-ton release would equate to 3.7 million barrels, or 123,000 barrels per day less than 10% of daily U.S. exports. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a waiver allowing imports of previously sanctioned Russian diesel until April 7. Following the news, NYMEX diesel futures extended earlier losses, while crude oil futures showed little reaction. "This batch of fuel may help somewhat, but the deliveries may not all materialize; even if they arrive, the volume may be too small and too late," said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. "The news may initially roil prices, but this hardly qualifies as a straightforward solution." "This is essentially much ado about nothing," Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com, said on X, because the volume of diesel to be delivered if it is indeed delivered as promised is not enough to bring about a sustained price decline. "Given the poor state of Russian refineries after Ukrainian attacks, plus its own export restrictions, I don't know how much additional supply the world will actually receive," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Earlier this year, after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, Russia suspended diesel exports, and last month the government extended the suspension until October 31. According to AAA data, the U.S. retail diesel price stood at about $6.28 per gallon on Friday, after hitting a record $6.52 per gallon on September 22. Although Trump signed an executive order this week aimed at expanding supplies of red-dyed diesel, retail diesel prices have not shown a clear decline. Crude oil futures settled slightly higher on Friday, as Trump's remarks that the United States would not strike Iran before the midterm elections were offset by concerns over continued attacks on Middle East shipping and potential losses to U.S. output from Hurricane "Isaias."