Overnight US stocks | Trump says Russia has agreed to supply diesel to ease fuel price pressure. The three major indices closed higher this week. Moderna (MRNA.US) rose over 14%.

Friday, the three major indices rose. Trump said Russia has agreed to supply diesel to the United States and global markets to ease fuel price pressure. According to the arrangement he announced, Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, with additional supplies to follow. The news improved investors' expectations for energy supply and pushed U.S. stocks further higher. However, pressure on the market has not disappeared. Oil prices continued to hover at high levels, and U.S. Treasury yields rose again after falling back on Thursday. This week, the S&P 500 rose about 1.2%, the Dow gained about 0.9%, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.6%. [U.S. Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 423.31 points, or 0.83%, to 51,654.95; the S&P 500 rose 46.15 points, or 0.59%, to 7,811.51; the Nasdaq Composite rose 172.83 points, or 0.64%, to 27,366.17. Moderna (MRNA.US) rose 14.21%, Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) rose 4.69%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) rose 3.29%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) rose 2.38%, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 2.05%, and SpaceX (SPCX.US) rose 1.25%. [European Stocks] Germany's DAX30 rose 280.85 points, or 1.13%, to 25,087.82; the UK's FTSE 100 rose 107.99 points, or 1.03%, to 10,549.59; France's CAC40 rose 73.64 points, or 0.95%, to 7,803.33; the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 47.42 points, or 0.77%, to 6,174.15; Spain's IBEX35 rose 125.20 points, or 0.66%, to 19,054.10; Italy's FTSE MIB rose 441.62 points, or 0.90%, to 49,739.50. [Asia-Pacific Stocks] Japan's Nikkei 225 edged lower, while Indonesia's composite index rose 1.04%. [Forex] The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.08% on the day and closed at 102.216 in late foreign exchange trading. As of late New York trading, 1 euro traded at 1.1202 dollars, down from 1.1209 dollars the previous trading day; 1 pound traded at 1.3241 dollars, up from 1.3225 dollars the previous trading day. 1 dollar traded at 158.21 yen, up from 157.86 yen the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 0.8298 Swiss francs, down from 0.8316 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 1.4266 Canadian dollars, up from 1.4224 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 dollar traded at 9.9909 Swedish kronor, up from 9.9757 Swedish kronor the previous trading day. [Cryptocurrencies] Bitcoin briefly broke through the 83,000-dollar mark and was at 82,404 dollars as of publication; Ethereum rose 0.21% to 2,479 dollars. [Precious Metals] Spot gold was quoted at 4,195.12 dollars per ounce; spot silver rose 2.75% to 60.816 dollars per ounce. [Crude Oil] Light crude futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 36 cents to settle at 91.85 dollars per barrel, up 0.39%; London Brent crude futures for December delivery rose 44 cents to settle at 104.72 dollars per barrel, up 0.42%. [Macro News] U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, the current economic conditions index hit a record low, and inflation expectations heated up again. U.S. consumer sentiment fell further in early October, with consumers' assessment of current economic conditions dropping to the lowest level on record, as persistently high inflation adds to the financial pressure on American households. A preliminary survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed that the October consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, the lowest since May. Among the components, the current economic conditions index fell sharply to 44.7 from 50.9 in September, the lowest level on record. Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index rose to 47.3 from 46.3, its first increase since July. As gasoline prices remain high, borrowing costs rise, and hiring activity slows, U.S. consumer sentiment has continued to deteriorate. The survey showed that consumers expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year, up from 4.6% in September. Long-term inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years rose to an annual average of 3.5%, slightly above the September level. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement that confidence fell notably this month among lower-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios. Fed survey: nearly one in five U.S. households had a loan delinquency, and debt repayment pressure rose to the highest level since 2013. The Federal Reserve's latest Survey of Consumer Finances showed that U.S. household debt pressure is intensifying, with more borrowers falling behind on loans or needing to devote a larger share of income to debt repayment. The survey showed that the median household debt-to-income ratio rose to 15.4%, up 2 percentage points from 2022. The Fed noted that this may be related to higher mortgage and consumer loan rates over the same period. At the same time, the share of households with heavier debt repayment burdens rose from 6.5% in 2022 to 8.6% in 2025, the highest level since the survey began in 2013. Such households devote 40% or more of their income to debt repayment. More notably, from 2022 to 2025, the share of households reporting loan delinquencies surged from about 12% to nearly 20%. These data indicate that as borrowing costs rise, U.S. households not only need to use more income to service debt, but loan delinquencies have also increased markedly, reflecting a deterioration in the financial condition of some households. Putin: Russia is willing to supply oil and petroleum products to the United States and global markets. The Russian Kremlin released a statement from Russian President Putin on local time the 9th saying that during a phone call with U.S. President Trump that day, the two sides focused on the prospects for resolving the Ukraine crisis, and also touched on the situation in Iran and multiple aspects of bilateral relations. When discussing the situation in global energy markets, the Russian side reiterated that it is willing to supply oil and petroleum products to the United States and global markets. Putin stressed that this will have a positive impact on the global economy. The two sides confirmed that the two presidents will continue to maintain direct contact and continue cooperation through presidential offices, intelligence and security departments, and other government agencies. In addition, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak also said that Russia is willing to increase diesel supplies to the U.S. market in October. He also said that as refineries finish maintenance, diesel exports may increase in November and December. Trump pressures Mexico to reach an energy agreement, and U.S.-Mexico trade talks are stalled. According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter, during a mid-September phone call with Mexican President Sheinbaum, Trump asked Mexican companies to reach more transactions and cooperation agreements with U.S. Energy Corp. The people familiar with the matter said Trump initially asked about the possibility of Mexico selling assets to the United States, and the two sides also discussed arrangements similar to the U.S.-South Korea energy agreement, including increasing purchases of U.S. Energy Corp. products. A U.S. official said the two sides discussed Mexico expanding imports of U.S. natural gas to narrow its trade surplus with the United States. Currently, U.S. natural gas already accounts for about three-quarters of Mexico's natural gas demand. The report noted that the new energy cooperation demands have raised concerns on the Mexican side and led to the postponement of formal trade negotiations originally scheduled for September, which have not yet been rescheduled. Mexico is seeking to reduce U.S. tariffs on its automobiles, steel, and aluminum products, but state control of the energy industry is highly politically sensitive in Mexico. The U.S. side said negotiations are progressing positively and the two sides remain in close contact. Russia's September inflation exceeded target, and economists warned that another rate hike may occur. Russia's consumer prices rose 6.35% year-on-year in September, above the market expectation of 6.3%, and rose 0.35% month-on-month, with inflation continuing to exceed the central bank's 4% target. Although seasonal price cuts for fruits and vegetables curbed some of the increase, after regulated prices such as utilities were raised this month, the weekly price increase jumped from 0.12% to 0.96%. The chief economist at CentroCredit Bank said that it had previously been expected that the Russian central bank would keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 14% through the end of the year, but another rate hike has now become a realistic possibility. Russia's central bank will meet on October 23. Last month, due to inflation risks from fuel supply disruptions and increased government spending, it paused rate cuts for the first time since June 2025. The central bank had previously raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 6% to 7%, meaning inflation will exceed target for a seventh consecutive year. In addition, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have disrupted the fuel market, and the fiscal deficit is expected to reach twice the original plan, further exacerbating price pressure. Global banks' precious metals trading revenue is expected to hit a record 5 billion dollars this year. According to people familiar with the matter and data from Crisil Coalition Greenwich, driven by sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices and active investor trading, global banks' precious metals trading revenue in 2026 is expected to reach about 5 billion dollars, a record high. Among them, JPMorgan Chase earned about 700 million dollars in the first half from trading in gold, silver, and other precious metals and related businesses, close to its record full-year high of more than 1 billion dollars in 2020; Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has earned more than 200 million dollars in related revenue so far this year. Banks profit through short-term options, leveraged ETF trading, and gold price arbitrage across different markets. At the same time, Citigroup became the first bank in a decade to newly join the London gold market vaulting and clearing services this year, while Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft and Morgan Stanley are also seeking to enter the field. Although gold and silver prices have retreated from earlier highs this year, they are still more than double their levels in early 2024. Canada's employment plunged by 68,300 in September, the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, and all employment growth for the year was wiped out. As the trade war with the United States continues to weigh on the economy, Canada's employment fell by 68,300 in September, far exceeding market expectations and wiping out all the employment growth accumulated earlier this year. Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed that the unemployment rate rose to 6.5% in September from 6.4% in August. The decline was mainly driven by the public sector, where employment fell by 70,000. Among sectors, educational services saw the largest drop, down 35,300; health care and social assistance fell by 23,100. At the same time, manufacturing employment fell by 12,700. Although job losses in September were mainly concentrated in the public sector, cumulative employment changes so far this year show that Canada's labor market overall has been weak. Since December 2025, Canada's employment has fallen by a cumulative 41,000, with a combined decline of 110,000 over the past two months. Friday's report also showed that Canada's labor force participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points in September to 64.8%, the lowest since December 1997, excluding the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic period. Statistics Canada said the decline in the participation rate can largely be attributed to population aging. [Company News] JPMorgan: SpaceX's (SPCX.US) latest spectrum deal may intensify U.S. telecom competition, and the three major carriers face cost pressure. JPMorgan analysts said in a report that SpaceX's latest spectrum deal may once again trigger market concerns about intensified competition among the three major U.S. wireless carriers. The analysts noted that beyond SpaceX potentially becoming a new wireless market participant, or even developing into the fourth-largest U.S. carrier, the deal also increases the risk that existing major carriers will have to spend more in future spectrum auctions. However, JPMorgan believes that SpaceX's near-term competitive threat to the three existing carriers Verizon (VZ.US), T-Mobile US (TMUS.US), and AT&T (T.US) remains limited. The analysts explained that building a competitive terrestrial mobile communications network requires substantial time, infrastructure, and capital investment, so even if SpaceX obtains more spectrum resources, it will be difficult for it to have a material short-term impact on the existing market landscape. Tesla, Inc. drops the "self-driving" name to seek European regulatory approval. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is downplaying the Full Self-Driving name in a bid to win approval for its driver-assistance system in Europe and distance itself from a name that has long been criticized as misleading. In recent days, Tesla, Inc. has begun using the name "Tesla Assisted Driving" on its European websites. At the same time, its U.S. website still calls the technology "Full Self-Driving (Supervised)." Wall Street's five biggest banks are expected to report nearly 19 billion dollars in third-quarter equities trading revenue. According to media reports, the largest Wall Street banks are expected to disclose combined third-quarter equities trading revenue of nearly 19 billion dollars when they report earnings next week. However, as capital market activity begins to cool, performance gaps among banks are gradually emerging, with some banks starting to clearly outperform competitors. This contrasts sharply with the first half of the year, when nearly all of the five largest U.S. banks benefited from a trading boom, with both equities and fixed-income trading desks staying busy. According to analyst estimates compiled as of Thursday's New York market close, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US), which will report earnings next Tuesday, is expected to lead major banks with 5.1 billion dollars in third-quarter equities trading revenue. Morgan Stanley (MS.US) is expected to follow with 4.9 billion dollars in equities trading revenue; JPMorgan (JPM.US) is expected at 4.5 billion dollars; and Bank of America Corp (BAC.US)'s equities trading unit is expected to generate 2.6 billion dollars in revenue. [Major Bank Ratings] Societe Generale: cuts Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) price target to 266 dollars from 268 dollars Barclays: initiates Boeing Company (BA.US) with overweight rating, price target 300 dollars Bank of Montreal: initiates coverage of American Express Company (AXP.US) with outperform rating; price target 380 dollars Citigroup: cuts PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP.US) price target to 135 dollars from 142 dollars Barclays: initiates coverage of SpaceX (SPCX.US) with overweight rating; price target 254 dollars