319 Cybercabs Become the New Battleground for Bulls and Bears: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) Valuation Debate Shifts Gears, Autonomous Fleet Data Becomes Wall Street's New Yardstick

Notice that Texas Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) records show that Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) added 150 newly registered Cybercabs (driverless taxis) in a single day on October 8, raising the total from 169 to 319, the largest single-day increase since the model entered the registration system on August 31; combined with 420 converted Model Y vehicles, Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving fleet in Texas has expanded to about 739 vehicles. After the news was announced, Tesla, Inc. rose nearly 1% overnight. Previously, Tesla, Inc.'s better-than-expected third-quarter deliveries had pushed the stock up nearly 5% in a single day, but deliveries were still down about 2% year over year; as of early October, the stock was still down about 18% year to date, the only negative year-to-date performer among the "Magnificent Seven." Against the backdrop of pressure on its core automotive business, the marginal impact of Robotaxi expansion data on the stock price has been significantly amplified, and Wall Street is sharply divided between bulls and bears around this surge in registrations. With target prices ranging from $24.86 to $600, a gap of more than 23 times between the highest and lowest, the dispersion is rare among large-cap stocks, reflecting that the market has still not reached a consensus on the fundamental question of whether Tesla, Inc. is an automaker or an AI platform, and Cybercab fleet data is precisely the answer each side is seeking. Bulls: Fleet size is the switch for valuation repricing Tigress Financial reiterated its "Buy" rating on October 8 with a target price of $550, implying about 47% upside from the current stock price and one of the highest target prices in nearly three months. The firm lists Cybercab robotaxis as one of five major growth drivers, arguing that together with FSD subscriptions, OptimusSiasun Robot&Automation, the energy business, and SpaceX synergies, they form a "physical AI growth flywheel" that supports Tesla, Inc.'s "accelerated growth and long-term shareholder value creation." Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives takes an even more aggressive stance, with a target price of $600, the highest on Wall Street. He believes the autonomous driving and AI businesses are worth "at least" $1 trillion, and Tesla, Inc.'s market capitalization could reach $2 trillion or even $3 trillion within one to two years. In addition, RBC Capital Markets' Tom Narayan reiterated "Buy" on October 2 with a target price of $480; Stifel maintained "Buy" with a target price of $491; Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald both maintained "Overweight" stances; Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft maintained "Buy" with a target price of $420. Bulls generally view Robotaxi as the core lever for Tesla, Inc. to switch from an "automaker valuation" to a "platform valuation." Wait-and-see camp: They endorse the direction but demand more evidence of execution Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintained a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $400. The bank's framework is quite representative: the continued expansion of an unsupervised fleet is the most core KPI for tracking Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving business in the second half of the year, and scaled deployment rather than "a handful of vehicles" on the road is the switch that triggers valuation repricing; in its sum-of-the-parts valuation, the Robotaxi business contributes $120 per share, the second-largest source of value after network services ($144). The bank expects Tesla, Inc.'s Robotaxi fleet to expand to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2026 and 1 million by 2035. Under this framework, the registration pace of 150 vehicles in a single day is exactly the "evidence of scale" Morgan Stanley requires, but the bank still chooses to wait and see on execution. Other neutral institutions include: JPMorgan's Rajat Gupta maintained "Hold" and lowered the target price from $445 to $415 on September 28; UBS Group AG's Joseph Spak maintained "Neutral" and raised the target price to $385 on October 7; Barclays' Dan Levy maintained "Hold" with a target price of $370; Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s Mark Delaney maintained "Hold" with a target price of $360, after the bank warned in mid-September that Tesla, Inc.'s third-quarter deliveries could fall short of market consensus. It is worth noting that recent rating actions have shown a pattern of "bulls standing pat while neutral institutions slightly adjust target prices," and since the end of September no institution has directly upgraded its rating because of Cybercab data. Bears: Registration volume does not equal actual operating capacity Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, a representative of the cautious camp, maintained a "Sell" rating with a target price of only $24.86, the lowest on Wall Street. The bear case has three parts: first, registration does not equal operation; what is registered in Texas are vehicles "approved for commercial use," and Tesla, Inc. has never disclosed how many of them actually operate without safety drivers; second, the gap with Waymo is vast, as the latter has entered 15 markets, deployed more than 4,000 vehicles, and completed more than 500,000 paid passenger trips per week, registering 1,154 vehicles in Texas alone, while Tesla, Inc.'s 319 Cybercabs are still a "drop in the bucket." The regulatory hammer hangs overhead NHTSA has upgraded its review of Cybercab safety certification to a special order, requiring Tesla, Inc. to respond under oath by October 30 to 21 questions, including how a pedal-free design complies with foot brake standards. Passenger reviews are also mixed, with complaints such as waiting more than 45 minutes, inaccurate pickup and drop-off points, and gullwing door malfunctions repeatedly appearing on social platforms. On fundamentals, Tesla, Inc.'s second-quarter operating profit fell 57% year over year, and Robotaxi has become a key pillar supporting the valuation narrative, which also means any expansion falling short of expectations will be amplified in interpretation.