Trump: The US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections; the two sides are holding "productive discussions"

US President Trump said on Thursday that the United States will not launch a military strike against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Just one day before Trump made this statement, reports said the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for attacks on Iran, and those plans could be carried out before the midterm elections. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States is holding "productive discussions" with Iran, while stressing that Iran is currently "in a very bad position, both economically and militarily." Trump also confirmed that the US-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be fully enforced, and stressed that a record 22 million barrels of oil were transported through this maritime corridor on Wednesday night, while no crude oil was shipped into or out of Iran. After Trump made the above statement, crude oil prices gave back their intraday gains. WTI crude oil futures fell back to about $91 per barrel from an intraday high of nearly $93 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell to about $104 per barrel after hitting an intraday high of nearly $106 per barrel. However, oil prices still rose on Thursday, with WTI crude and Brent crude rising 3.3% and 3.8%, respectively. Although crude oil flows in the Middle East have increased in recent weeks, attacks on ships have also increased sharply. In the Middle East, in addition to the US-Iran conflict, the fighting between Yemeni government forces and the Houthi armed group has further escalated, and the Saudi-led multinational coalition has also stepped up strikes against the Houthis, with the conflict showing a trend of expanding front lines and rising intensity. Saudi Arabia is discussing with Syria the matter of Syria sending troops to Yemen to participate in strikes against the Yemeni Houthis. In addition, due to the impact of Tropical Storm Isaias, crude oil producers in the US Gulf of Mexico have shut in more than 510,000 barrels per day of crude oil production capacity, equivalent to about one-quarter of the region's output. According to reports, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said in an interview on October 8 that negotiations between Iran and the US side are still continuing. Iran is still evaluating the US response to the proposal to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days" and will reply within a few days. Since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, the United States has carried out airstrikes, a maritime blockade, and economic pressure on Iran. At present, sporadic clashes are still continuing, falling into a stalemate of neither war nor peace. As negotiations between the United States and Iran mediated by third parties have made little progress, discussions about restarting the war are increasing. In a speech at Sparrows Point, Maryland, on October 6, Trump said that military action against Iran "must be brought to a conclusion," and that "the only question to consider is in what way, soft or tough." Earlier, on October 2, Trump's national security team met for several hours at Camp David to discuss issues including the Iran war. An Israeli official said that part of the meeting focused on the possible resumption of combat operations, but US Secretary of State Rubio said after the meeting that it focused on "long-term" foreign policy planning. Some analyses point out that at present, the possibility of a full-scale restart of the US war against Iran still cannot be completely ruled out, and especially after the US midterm elections, this probability may increase significantly. There are structural obstacles in the negotiations between the two sides on core issues, making substantive progress difficult. If major combat operations are restarted, it would mean that the United States may carry out large-scale bombing of Iran's energy, infrastructure, and nuclear facility targets. If the US-Iran war escalates again in the next three to four weeks, it may affect the US midterm elections by pushing up oil prices and other factors. Reports point out that different polls reflect that US voters are generally worried about their "pocketbooks." Among these, the US-Iran war has become increasingly unpopular domestically because it drives up energy prices, turning into a domestic issue affecting American livelihoods.