Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Q3 Earnings Structure Differentiation Across A-Shares Continues

Yesterday, the market experienced volatile adjustments, with the three major indices collectively surging then pulling back, and the STAR 50 Index opening low and trending downward. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.68 trillion yuan. On the board, sectors such as solid-state batteries, shipping, and banking strengthened. On the decline side, the CPO and semiconductor industry chains underwent volatile adjustments. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.15%. CICC believes that the differentiated earnings structure across A-shares continued in the Q3 reports; CITIC SEC believes that with the ongoing prosperity, the market is expected to launch a second offensive; China Securities Co.,Ltd. believes that model iteration and investment remain undiminished, and Agent commercialization continues to be realized. CICC: The differentiated earnings structure across A-shares continued in the Q3 reports. The upstream energy and raw materials sectors, as well as the TMT field, are expected to maintain relatively high growth. At the overall level, 2Q26 achieved high-speed growth, but this was accompanied by notable structural divergence. In the second half of the year, considering the base effect rise, the gradual fading of PPI price increase factors, and the still weak fundamentals of traditional industries, combined with the slowing improvement in advance receipt growth, profit growth may somewhat decline in the second half. At the structural level, in the financial sector, capital market activity remains relatively high, but compared to the second quarter's market pullback and the decline in average daily turnover, the performance growth in the non-banking sector may decrease quarter-on-quarter; in the non-financial sector, the performance growth in upstream energy and raw materials and the TMT field is expected to continue at a relatively high level. CITIC SEC: With the ongoing prosperity, the market is expected to launch a second offensive. Historically, super cycles have not seen cases of A-share kills when prosperity continues; they often have a second earnings peak. It is expected that this round's earnings peak will occur in 4Q26-1Q27. Combined with the clearing of chips and sluggish sentiment, the main theme of offense is maintained. The last wave of offense within the year is more likely to unfold in the stock market, driven by the activity of non-institutional stocks and theme rotation focus, gradually shifting to institutional stock catch-up driven by Q3 reports, with a broad tech rally and new volume highs unlikely to appear. Against the backdrop of upward earnings and explicit macroeconomic risks, the probability of significant adjustments is limited. It is advisable to remain optimistic and patient, control expectations, and allocate with a volatile market mindset. China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Model iteration and investment remain undiminished, and Agent commercialization continues to be realized. Overseas security discussions have not changed the high-frequency model iteration pace, and RSI is gradually becoming a consensus among leading model enterprises such as OpenAI and Anthropic; domestically, Alibaba and Z.AI completed financing of approximately HKD 80 billion and USD 5 billion respectively, with large-scale investment supporting the catch-up in model capabilities, and Tencent also increased overseas computing power procurement. In terms of commercialization, overseas enterprise cooperation has deepened, ChatGPT's annualized advertising revenue run rate reached USD 1 billion, and Muse has broadened the monetization path on the consumer side; domestic Agents are still expected to drive Token calls and a new round of ARR growth by increasing per-user task density. The overall trend of the domestic AI sector is upward. It is recommended to focus on computing power services, domestic chips and super nodes, as well as B-end AI application vendors with scenario, data, and enterprise delivery capabilities. This article is reprinted from "Cailian Press", edited by GMTEight: Li Fo.