Guotou Securities International: Maintains "Buy" rating on Great Wall Motor (02333), target price HK$10

Guotou Securities International released a research report stating that based on an estimated 2026 P/E ratio of 8x for Great Wall Motor (02333), it assigns a target price of HK$10 per share and maintains a "Buy" rating. The bank believes that overseas localized production capacity and channel expansion will continue to contribute incremental growth, and the company's profitability is expected to recover starting from the second half of the year. The main points from Guotou Securities International are as follows: September total sales of 115,000 units, -14.0% YoY, +1.4% MoM By brand, Haval sold 66,558 units, -18.8% YoY, +2.5% MoM, remaining the sales foundation but with the deepest YoY decline of the year; Tank sold 15,178 units, -29.2% YoY, -14.4% MoM; WEY sold 6,976 units, -36.7% YoY, -5.3% MoM, with the premium brand still in a product iteration phase; Great Wall Pickup sold 15,020 units, +16.4% YoY, +22.2% MoM, resuming growth driven by exports and new energy pickups; Ora sold 11,202 units, +79.1% YoY, +1.7% MoM, continuing the volume ramp-up pace of A0-segment pure electric vehicles and being the fastest-growing brand for the month. Cumulative sales for January-September reached 920,000 units, -0.3% YoY, with cumulative growth shifting from positive in the first half to roughly flat, and Ora's cumulative doubling being the only highlight. September overseas sales of 60,000 units, +19.4% YoY, -4.0% MoM, accounting for 52.2% of total monthly sales Cumulative overseas sales for January-September reached 475,977 units, +42.4% YoY, accounting for 51.7% of cumulative sales. The overseas layout is advanced through ecosystem-based going-global, with fully-processed vehicle bases established in Thailand and Brazil, KD factories in Ecuador and other locations, over 1,600 overseas sales channels, and nearly 200 new stores added during the year. In September, the Tank 500 and Shanhai Cannon 3.0 Diesel were launched in South Africa, the Haval Raptor entered the Chilean market, and the company's six major brands appeared together at the Turin Auto Show in Italy, with models including the Ora 5 and Tank 300 Hi4-T showcased in a concentrated manner, advancing simultaneously across European, African, and Latin American markets. Two new models launched and delivered in September The WEY Gaoshan 8/9 Smart Edition was launched on September 23 and began deliveries, with the Gaoshan 8 Smart Edition priced at 309,800 yuan and the Gaoshan 9 Smart Edition priced at 385,800 yuan. The entire series comes standard with dual VLA large models, the Coffee Pilot 4 assisted driving system, and NVIDIA Thor-U chips. The interior is based on the largest-in-class cabin length and a shared rail design for the second and third rows, adding dual zero-gravity rotating seats, with the second and third rows able to achieve both face-to-face and flat-folding modes. The Gaoshan 8 HEV version is planned for launch in the fourth quarter, forming a plug-in hybrid plus gasoline-electric hybrid powertrain matrix together with the current Gaoshan and Smart Edition, covering the 260,000 yuan to 400,000 yuan price range. The 2027 Ora Good Cat was launched on September 29, with 5 configurations priced from 69,800 to 99,800 yuan. The entry price is significantly lower than the previous generation, making it the core model for Ora to continue ramping up volume in the A0-segment pure electric market. Risk warnings The company's product launches and sales may fall short of expectations; the company's overseas expansion progress may fall short of expectations; market price competition; rising raw material costs.